Translated material
Biden almost won: how the votes counts in the US presidential election
The US presidential election was held on November 3, but the winner has not yet been defined. In the course of the vote count, the favorite has changed more than once, but in the end, the winner will most likely be the candidate from the Democratic Party Joe Biden. His opponent Donald Trump is not going to give up and intends to seek victory in the courts.
Biden a step away from the victory
Summing up of the presidential elections in the United States was very prolonged: more than a day after the closure of the last sites passed, but the chances of winning are still preserved among both candidates. Although there is less and less doubts that the next president will be Joe Biden - according to CNN and New York Times at the time of publication of the article, he has 253 votes of electors (270 is needed to win). Trump has 214 votes so far, but he can still reduce the gap. According to the latest data, Biden also wins in two “oscillating” states - Wisconsin and Michigan, which seriously strengthen its advantage. Given the Michigan, where the situation is unlikely to change, Biden is not enough to win only six votes.
The winner has not yet decided in the six states: Pennsylvania, North Carolin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Alaska. There is almost no regarding the last intrigue: three votes of electors from the northern state of the United States will surely get Trump. The key to all elections may be Pennsylvania with its 20 votes of electors. If Trump loses this state, the winner of the elections will become Bidden regardless of how others vote. At the same time, a candidate from the Democrats can win, even if any other state from the remaining votes for him.
Why is the counting for so long?
The situation was greatly influenced by the coronavirus epidemic. As CNN previously reported, this year more than 100 million people voted ahead of schedule, by mail - this is a little less than half of the total number of registered voters. In some states, it was announced that these votes would begin to calculate only after those filed personally. The final summing up can be very stretched, although the name of the next US president, most likely, will still become known in the near future-probably on Friday.
A long counting of votes was not the only feature of these elections. Another was the most powerful mobilization of voters, which in the United States has not been seen longer than a century. The appearance on the vote on November 3 was 66.8%. It was more only in 1900, when 73.7% of voters came to the sites.
How the alignment of forces changed
An indefinite situation did not prevent both contexts for the presidential post to announce their victory. Trump did this shortly after the end of the vote on the western coast of the United States (on Wednesday morning in Moscow). “I will make a statement that night. A big victory!”, The current American president wrote on Twitter. After that, he added that his opponents were “trying to steal the election” and promised to prevent such a development of events.
Bayden immediately reminded his opponent that he would not count the voices, but Trump's self -confident statements looked at least partially justified. Although most surveys before the election gave Biden’s victory, voting showed that analysts and sociologists seriously underestimated Trump's chances for the second presidency. The alignment of forces has changed more than once in the course of counting the votes: sometimes it seemed that the current owner of the White House would probably retain the chair for another four years.
It quickly became clear that the current owner of the White House wins not only in the traditional “republican” states like Oklahoma, Wyoming or Arkansas. In Texas, who immediately gives 38 votes of electors and also usually votes for the Republicans, the candidates at first went on a flush, but then Trump escaped forward. The results in Florida turned out to be an unpleasant surprise for Biden. A very tense struggle unfolded for this “oscillating” state, and as a result, the victory went to Trump - like 29 votes of electors.
The situation began to change by the evening of Wednesday. Biden stepped forward in Michigan and Wisconsin, and began to reduce the gap in several other states. A few hours later (already on the night of Thursday in Moscow), the candidate announced his leadership in the race. “After long estimates that lasted at night, it is clear that we win enough states to receive 270 votes of the votes necessary for victory,” Bayden said. At the same time, he had not yet to congratulate his associates, limiting himself to the neat formulation “When the voices are calculated, we believe that we will win.”
At the same time, it is obvious that he no longer doubts victory: later it became known that Bayden’s headquarters launched a site on the transfer of power from the Trump administration. So far, the portal is almost empty: it only has a photograph of the candidate from the Democrats and the message in English and Spanish. It says that the transition team will prepare as quickly as possible to ensure that Biden and candidate for vice presidents of Kamal Harris begin to work from the first day.
How “mail” voices strengthened the advantage of Biden
Trump's rhetoric also began to change: from statements about victory, he quickly moved to transparent hints of fraud in the calculation of votes. “Why every time they count the mailing balloons, they are so discouraging in interest and destructive strength?”, The candidate from the Republicans wondered on Twitter. One of the following tweets was even more specific. “They are struggling to destroy the advantage of 500 thousand votes in Pennsylvania - as soon as possible. As in Michigan and others!” Trump wrote.
Biden really had a serious advantage in the votes sent by mail, but this has another explanation. During the campaign, Trump criticized the practice of mail and called his voters to come to the sites personally. Biden, on the contrary, supported the remote vote, so supporters of the democrats are more likely to choose just such a strategy.
What will happen next
The final summing up of the elections with a high degree of probability will be delayed not only because of the long counting of the “postal” votes, but also thanks to the intention of the Trump team to seek the revision of the results in several states. So, it has already been announced a possible recount of votes in Wisconsin, a lawsuit on the suspension of votes in Michigan, as well as the requirement to cancel the extension of the extreme voting deadlines in Pennsylvania and Georgia. In addition, Trump lawyers can challenge the counting in Arizona and Nevada. Finally, during one of the speeches, Trump announced the “great fraud” in the elections and said that he was going to appeal to the US Supreme Court.
Meanwhile, in conditions of uncertainty in the United States, riots have already begun. In New York, several dozen people were detained. Mass acts of violence are also marked in Portland, it was decided to send units of the National Guard there.