Man from the Ministry of Finance

Ingushetia can be the first bankrupt region in Russia. What does this mean and who is next?

This week it became known that the government can recognize Ingushetia the first bankrupt region in the history of Russia. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin instructed the republican authorities to prepare a plan for increasing solvency and conclude an agreement with the Ministry of Finance on the transfer of part of the authority of financial policy to the Federal Center.

Now the republic will not be able to borrow money and attract investors, and the commissioner from the Ministry of Finance will follow all the expenses.

“Formally, such an instrument [procedure for announcement of insolvency] can be applied, in accordance with our Budget Code, if the region has overdue debts in the amount of over 30% of the volume of own tax and non -tax revenues. It is likely that such a state of affairs in the Republic of Ingushetia has come, ”said Vladimir Klimov, director of the Center for Regional Policy of the RANEPA.

The question of the state of finance of the region was aggravated a year ago, when the acting head of the Republic of Mahmud-Ali Kalimatovobov was about the awaiting Ingushetia “collapse” in the event that the federal authorities are not connected to the problem. The budget deficit of the region for 2020 increased to 67 million rubles, and the level of public debt by 64%. Now the republican federal budget is 3.33 billion rubles, while its income amounted to only 2.65 billion.

All regions with high debt load are developing their own plan to restore budget solvency. Its essence is that the Ministry of Finance more thoroughly controls the expenses from the outside, explains Natalya Zubarevich, chief researcher at the Higher Social Policy Institute for Higher School.

“For Ingushetia, this is a very good story. But in other regions, where the external conduct of expenses was also introduced, the degree of counteracting the measures of the federal authorities was low: they wanted to receive help, and therefore went to the conditions of the Ministry of Finance. But what will happen in Ingushetia is a question for me, ”the expert says.

Tough budget control during the crisis can lead to other side effects. It is possible that the Ministry of Finance will begin the program for the recovery of public finance through social expenses. So,

When “on the counter” was put on Mordovia, she sharply reduced expenses on a socialist ”, so that this did not bring any well -being to the region, Zubarevich recalls.

A similar script is characteristic not only for Ingushetia. The mechanism of conducting expenses from the outside was introduced, for example, by Vhakasia Imorodia, informally - in the Kostroma region, whose public debt significantly exceeded the debt of Ingushetia.

Despite huge debts to the federal budget, not one of these subjects in the past was declared “insolvent”. There were no such precedents before, although there were difficult situations. Ingushetia may be the first case of applying the head of the bankruptcy of the regions in the Budget Code for 16 years of the existence of this norm.

“This is the most subsidized region of Russia: the share of subsidies in it exceeds 80% of the republic’s budget, -

Says Vladimir Klimov. - In addition, Ingushetia takes second place in terms of growth in the volume of public debt. This year, against the background of pandemia, it grew by more than 60%. ”

So far, the formal procedure for recognizing the bankruptcy of Ingushetia, fraught with reputation and rating risks, has not been carried out - it means that there is a chance that the situation will be able to correct in other ways, the expert believes.

On the other hand, coronacrisis led to the fact that in 2020 the total deficiency of the budgets of the Russian regions will be about 830 billion rubles, and the analysts of Gazprombank predict. At the same time, the volume of transfers from the federal budget will decrease six times next year - from 782 to 130 billion rubles. As a result, almost all regions will be forced to plug holes in the budgets with the help of new bank loans.

And this means that the bankruptcy mechanism may soon need other regions that are in a complex financial situation. Anti -sorcerers on debt load - Mordovia, Pskov, Eagle, Smolensk and Kurgan. And there are clearly no transfers from the federal budget for patching all holes next year.

Anna Titova, especially for Novaya Gazeta