120 thousand dead since the beginning of the pandemic. "Mediazona" examined excess mortality in Russia

Official statistics of coronavirus deaths are several times diverging with an indicator of excess mortality, which Mediazona calculated on the basis of Rosstat and registry offices for seven months of the pandemic and in the previous five years. According to these data, 120 thousand people died more than usual in Russia, while Rospotrebnadzor believes that there were many times less victims of the pandemic.

During the Covid-19 pandemic since 2020, 120 thousand people died in Russia than on average over the past 5 years, it follows from the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, which was studied by the Mediazone. Excessive mortality was 18%.

If you take into account only the period from April to September - those months by which there is complete data from Rosstat - then the increase in mortality will be 106 thousand people.

According to the official statistics of Rospotrebnadzor, for April-September in Russia, Covid-19 died five times less-20,698 people. Rosstat, who counts the victims of coronavirus, gives a different figure - 55.6 thousand people. But even the Rosstat assessment does not explain such an excess mortality.

Note: Excessive mortality for April-October was 120 thousand people at the time of publication of the text on November 23. On November 26, we updated infographics, as we reported several more registry offices; According to these data, it exceeded 124 thousand.

Instructions for infographics

For each region and for Russia as a whole, we calculated three indicators. They are shown over the graph. Information on the map corresponds to the indicator that you highlight. You can choose a specific month or any time segment from April to October.

The first number is an excess of mortality in comparison with the average. The redter the region, the higher this indicator. If there is no excess for the selected period, a gray region with zero values ​​will appear on the map.

The second number shows how many percent of these excess deaths were officially attributed to deaths with Covid-19. The higher this indicator, the more transparent the calculation system in the region; Such regions are highlighted on the map in green.

The third meaning is a general change in mortality. Unlike the first day, it takes into account those regions in which fewer people died in the selected period than on average (that is, mortality in the region has decreased). Reducing mortality on the map is shown green, and an increase is red.

When clicking on the region in the lower right corner, a schedule is built, which shows a trend compared to previous years.

Data on the regions are indicated as a percentage, but the “123” button can be replaced with absolute values. The map itself with a nearby button can be turned into a list of regions in descending. Built infographics can be downloaded in the form of a picture.

Demographer Alexei Raksha in a conversation with the Mediazone explains that not all excess deaths belong to coronavirus: according to the demograph, they can be associated, for example, with the overload of the healthcare system.

“Urgent services are engaged-someone has a heart attack, someone else has something else. Planned operations are postponed. Different things can be things, but, according to the experience of developed countries, the Covid-19 is in excess mortality from 55% to 110% on average-80%, ”says Raksha.

At the same time, regions recognize the deaths associated with pandemia to varying degrees. In some - in the Magadan region, the Republic of Komi, St. Petersburg, Moscow, the Moscow Region and Tovy - almost all excess mortality is recognized as coronavirus. In Bashkiria, Lipetsk, Leningrad regions, as well as in Chechnya and Tatarstan, excess mortality is not officially explained in any way.

According to Raksha, the same regions that do this in other areas are manipulated by coronavirus: “Suppose Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chechnya are the most false regions not only according to this statistics. If we see electoral statistics, if we see the results of the census. And this manifests itself in absolutely everything. This is an electoral geography, and the statistics of Covid behave in the same way. As used to it, they lie. ”

Judging by the Rosstat, the hardest month of the entire time of the epidemic was July: then the total mortality in Russia increased by almost 21%.

In the regions of the North Caucasus, probably, such a sharp increase in mortality is associated with the non -passage of the dead in the previous months. The rest of the subjects also faced this problem because of quarantine-but not on such a scale. In some regions-for example, the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, the Murmansk and Novosibirsk regions-the overall level of mortality practically did not fall during the year; That is, it is impossible to explain high mortality in July by late registration.

The second wave that began in the fall is also clearly visible in the increase in mortality in September: 26.4 thousand more people died throughout the country than usual. There was not a single region left on the map of Russia where mortality would not have grown relative to the average level.

In Udmurtia, Lipetsk, Murmansk region, Yakutia, Krasnodar Territory, mortality exceeded the average level until September inclusive.

Rosstat has not yet published data for October, this will not happen earlier than the beginning of December. In the 21st region, according to which there are registry offices, the total mortality increased by more than 32%. In the Altai Territory, 1877 people died more than usual, in St. Petersburg - at 1517, in the Krasnodar Territory - at 1,500, in Orenburg for 1200.

The demographer Raksha believes that in October the total mortality in Russia will significantly increase. “The epidemic began to accelerate in September, in October I am waiting for 50 thousand [excess of average mortality]. In September, according to Stopkoronavirus.rf, we have 3600 deaths, and [excess] - 26 thousand. That is, almost seven times more. In October, coronavirus deaths officially 7344, in the same proportion-7-7.5 times more-you can expect about 55 thousand total deaths. But since this October one is one working day less than last year, the registry offices and Rosstat will fix an increase of about 46 thousand, ”he predicts.

General mortality beats records not only in Russia. For example, for epidemics, it grew by about 20%in England, the USA %20 (Figure%201).) And Spain .

“We have more growth rates than in Spain. Ahead of us with a large margin of Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico. There was a complete seam, because they had winter. Russia can enter the five [most affected countries] by the end of the year and overtake Spain, ”says Raksha.

Fixed on November 24 at 13:18. The quote from the demographer Alexei Rakshi in the penultimate paragraph is clarified.

Editor: Dmitry Treshchin