What are Russian "instructors"

They support the president of the country. And at the same time conclude agreements with opposition armed groups in order to ensure the security of their companies

In the Central African Republic (TsAB), in the affairs of which official and semi -official Moscow has been actively interfering in recent years - a military crisis. After the election candidate was not registered by ex-president Francois Bosiz, a coalition was created from diverse armed groups that began an attack on the position of government forces. The goal is to interfere with the presidential election on the nearly Sunday, December 27.

After the start of clashes from Russia, reinforcements came to the TsA. The UN, the European Union, as well as France, which has dominated the region for many years, condemned the actions of militants against the official government.

About the situation in the TsA, about what the interests of Paris and Moscow have now agreed, which previously decided to “humiliate” the French here, as well as whether the “cook” of Prigozhin is rich in Central African diamonds, Novaya Gazeta said an expert in the region, an employee of the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) and the Center for International Research by Sciences Po (Ceri) Marshal .

- Mr. Marshal, given what is happening in the TsA, you think, the troops of the president of the Tuader will be able to support the Oonsky ( Maonzar - the Maonzar - the Mission of the United Nations in the Central African Republic) , both Russian, Ruanda forces, stop the promotion of the coalition of armed groups and hold the elections, as planned, as on December 27?

- I think it will be very difficult. I would immediately talk not only about this situation with the elections, but also about the situation in the TsA.

Various armed groups control three quarters of the country. With the most favorable layouts for the government, two -thirds.

The rebels are not very good compared to trained foreign soldiers, but they are able to avoid direct frontal clashes. They are extremely mobile and “scatter” in the first serious danger. To pursue them - especially in a difficult area, which they, unlike foreigners, know very well - means to lose people. Of course, when Maonzar or Rwandian forces direct against them, the rebels recede. But they do not lose. They are waiting for another case to attack.

And as soon as the danger passes, they return to the territory from which they were knocked out. It is impossible to constantly protect occupied territories. Fighters of Moonzar ( *which is the main in number of foreign military force in the TsA. - *Yu. S. ) forced to hold together in large groups to ensure their own security - losses in their ranks also have a high political price.

The UN forces have 12 thousand people, but only two contingents are truly fighting-Portuguese and Rwandy. Often, when they say that somewhere Maonzar put things in order, most often they mean representatives of these two military forces. There are also Cameroon Military, who are also able to fight, but they rarely do it. So

With the UN forces is a problem. They try to stay in their barracks and stay away.

Given the above, I think that a military victory over these groups that are not subordinating government is almost unattainable. This will require mobile forces, with significant air support and huge military costs, which are not comparable with what (small) importance is the TsAI in the international arena.

We need to look for a solution that will combine military aspects with political. Since the 90s, regional African associations tried to solve the problem by military means, and the French tried to look for military decisions-all attempts failed.

- How many French are the French in the TsAR?

- There is a small French contingent, 300 people, at the metropolitan airport of Banga MPOO, he has long been there, and his tasks include mainly the preparation of regional African forces and the protection of French citizens who are in the country.

And there are a small number of officers who participate in the operation of the Maonzar. There is, by the way, Russian officers.

- And how many Russian forces in the Central African Republic?

- The numbers are the problem. There, mostly, mercenaries who work for the notorious “Wagner PMC” ... I do not know how many of them are exactly. I believe that a moderate amount is from 300 to 400. There are about 200 people between Borago and Bange, at the most 300. In addition, there are also people who are guarded by Russian companies operating in the extraction of diamonds. How many people were sent this weekend, I do not know.

- The Russian Foreign Ministry said that they sent reinforcements from 300 "military instructors." If there are so few Russians, as you say, how to explain that Moscow managed to “intercept the initiative” in this country from the French?

- You say so, because look only at what is happening today, at a very short period of time. ( Russian intervention in the CAC began in 2018. - Ed. ) . Today, the Russian forces have the same problems that the French operation of Sangaris had four years ago ( lasted from December 2013 to October 2016, it was the seventh French military operation since gaining the King of Independence in 1960- ed. ) . In addition to the above, there is another problem: the government forces of the TAC fight very little and very badly, despite the training that the French and other Europeans gave them, and now they give - the Russians.

- That is, the Russians there repeat the mistakes made in the previous decades?

- That is what is happening now.

- If we compare the current influence of Russia in the Tsar and the influence of France, what is it?

- Russia is very influential at the level of the President of the TsA, who sits in the Bangs. But the TsAS government, as I said, practically does not control the national territory. Russia is also negotiating with different armed formations, and it manages to maintain the presence in the zones that they control. There are agreements with armed groups to operate mines.

Russian forces almost do not participate in operations to restore order. They protect Russian investments there, Russian personnel who work for Russian companies.

- That is, it is mutual neutrality?

- If you want, yes, only this is neutral with illegal armed formations. This is what France criticizes, what the opposition of the Tsar criticizes:

The fact that the Russian PMC, which simultaneously helps the government, also (cooperates) and with illegal armed formations.

And the criticism that is about the Khartum agreement ( *signed in February 2019 under the auspices of the Russian Federation by the president and leaders of 14 groups. - *Ed. ) It is that this is to a greater extent the division of the country between the government and armed groups than the real solution to the problem.

- In which areas do the interests of Paris and Moscow are faced with the Tsar? And what does France do in order to reduce the influence of Moscow there?

- (Laughs.) Yes, and what Russia is doing in order to reduce the influence of France ... French economic interests in the TsA are ridiculous. There are almost no grands there. There is (telecommunications company) Orange, there is Bollora ( *20th in the list of French billionaires.- *Yu. S. ). But there is very little money there, this is a small market, a country with a very small population (about 6 million). There are important reserves of fossils, but diamonds are alluvial, and in addition - mining under serious international restrictions (Kimberly process). Uranus. Security conditions worsened, so the contracts were left. Of course, there is oil, but it (almost) costs nothing if it does not have access to the international market. Moreover, oil now and in the official market costs little. So there is no French (economic) interest.

If you look from a Russian point of view, then, with the exception of your compatriot, who ... I don’t know how to pronounce it correctly ...

- Prigogine.

- Prygin , Voila. With the exception of him, a person managing both a private military company and contracts for mineral mining, and this is a fact amazing for a foreign observer - it is difficult to find more important interests. Why "amazing"? Because the intervention of the Russian state occurs through the use of PMCs, which depends on a person who has quite important investments here.

There is also political interest. But he is not in relation to the Tsar, but to France. The Russian leadership, probably, may believe that he managed to strengthen in the country, which is described as a zone of important French interests. To humiliate the French a little, show them that they do not control the situation. After all, the interests in the Central African Republic are very limited. And I'm not even sure that Prygin will make a lot of money in the TsA.

- You said that the Russians are doing all this, including to “humiliate” France. But for France itself, is this "humiliation"? Or even in a diplomatic, and not just economically terms, the TsAS issue is not very important for Paris now?

- On the one hand, this is very important for the image of France in Central Africa, because the regimes located around the TsAD, the Republic of Congo, Cameroon, are hostile to Russia and believe that France could not prevent the Russians in the Central African Republic. France showed weakness.

And on the other hand, when you speak with French diplomats, you see that now they have no real policy in the TsA. There are no real interests. We now remain there due to historical reasons.

- Why did France allow the Russians to act if the forces are approximately comparable, as you said? Only because of the position occupied by the current president of the Tuader?

- Military forces are comparable, but this is not the same thing at all. Because 300 French military are official representatives of the French state. They have been there for a very long time, by agreement, and have a very limited mandate. They do not even have authority to intervene, if something will happen to the banks, in the capital, only the mandate to protect the French community.

And the Russians sent PMCs. This is completely different.

Every time you use the forces of the regular army, you are obliged to notify the UN Security Council. And when the PMC acts, then diplomatically Russia in this is "not involved."

- In the current conflict, when illegal armed groups try to disrupt the elections, do the positions of Paris and Moscow coincide?

- If you look at the French position today, then you get the impression that Paris supports the military intervention of Russia and Rwanda. The Council of Ministers spoke about the situation in the TsA, but absolutely did not talk about this aspect, although he had to do it. I think this did not happen because the French did not want to raise this problem. They, like the Russian leadership, want the elections to take place on December 27. And Paris, like Moscow, is completely indifferent to what conditions they will pass.

- After the elections, if they take place, will France’s policy in the TsAL remain the same?

- We need to see how the election will be held, what will be an international reaction, but what is known for sure, this is that in France there is not only any clear policy, but also no controversy about politics in Africa in general and in the Council of People's Commissars in particular. So in general, the country's leadership can choose any option.

- With all this, the French help the tsar more than Russia?

- The French help a lot more. France provides direct support from the budget. It supplies humanitarian aid, which Russians do not do at all or do very weakly. The French support the civilian population, finance development projects, schools, ministries. And of course, they play a crucial role at the European level, achieving the allocation of funds for the bange. And the European Union is the main financial donor of the TsA.

That is why

The Russian presence here is very fragile.

Russia is too focused on ensuring the security apparatus and on political issues. But even among the political class of the Tsar, not part of the team of the current president, it cannot be said that Moscow has many sympathy.

The Chinese here act much thinner - both in political issues, in economic, and in matters of financing cultural projects and development projects.

And Moscow, in general terms, has the support of the current president and pays several journalists so that they create an information background, write anti -French articles and glorify Russia. It is inexpensive.

- That is, do you think that the Russian “Victory” in the Central African Republic is short -term?

- The presence of this kind cannot be successful in the long term. It is limited by its influence, focused on the team of the President of the TsA, on those people who are in power right now.