Chekists gave a historical chance to Navalny

I can’t imagine a better gift for the CECTITY Day than the one that Alexei Navalny did to all of us. We will not get laugh soon. But it is worth trying to summarize.

When you throw a stone into the water, a surge is heard, circles are coming, and then everything calms down. The consequences of most scandals are just such - they do not lead to anything. Socium is not only here, but everywhere: stable and inert, what seems to be a storm that turns everything over, most often develops only on the surface. We have had a lot of crises, including accompanied by large -scale protests and direct confrontation of citizens with power. But the world, contrary to sensations and expectations, "remained the same." As a result, we no longer believe that something can change at all.

But now, after the poisoning “followed by exposure”, there will be changes. Both direct and long -term.

Direct consequences

The main thing among them is that

The office is disgraced.

Once she caused horror, naturally turning into admiration in some citizens. But even then, when the large -scale terror ended, when the Chekists took off the leather jackets and French and changed into strict costumes, they continued to sow fear. No one was surprised at either an attempt to kill the Skripals, nor many mysterious and never investigated deaths. They continued to be afraid. And respect - believe in Stirlitz.

When they poisoned Navalny, this did not cause shock - they acted within the framework of the prevailing traditions that have been understandable to all. From Ivan the Terrible, the sovereign is free to execute his slaves, and even those who have a blasphemy on him, especially. And even when they did not succeed, it was within the framework of a certain implicit norm - there is no work without failures.

But now they laugh! Laughter began after the publication of the investigation, when it became clear to everyone how not professional and available for observation, and even after a live broadcast with Kudryavtsev, when we got inside the black comedy or caricatures of Sharly Ebdo, laughter went into the homeric laughter. Street promotions with panties, discussions about hidden homosexuality - it was not for nothing that they “worked on panties”, and all this is infinity.

Laughter kills fear. The infernal halo disappeared.

There was a poorly working structure where, instead of an intelligent Stirlitz, some muddy subjects in Alcoholic T-shirts.

She can be afraid, but they will no longer be afraid or so respectfully.

But the office has lost its authority not only in the eyes of citizens, but also in the eyes of its own workers - today and potential. It is nice to feel belonging to the powerful order above the law and people, and look about it - to yourself! - "Seventeen moments of spring." And to be a member of a constantly sitting in a puddle ridicuable organization? Young and smart ones will think about the transition to more psychologically comfortable positions, and the best of those who tried on a career in the organs, perhaps, will prefer to make life not from Dzerzhinsky.

Therefore, what happened is a blow not only on the image, but also on human capital. And taking into account the fact that we can’t always understand where the special services end and the business or the state apparatus begins, the area of ​​defeat of this man -made explosion is even greater. And the mood of the highest bosses, who also from the office, will not affect the best way, increasing their resentment against the ungrateful people and a tendency to repressive policy - but what about these people?

Long -term consequences

As a result of events that began with an attempt, Navalny became the only alternative to the current government in the minds of people. At first this happened in the West, where one name was known about Russia before - Putin, and now the second - Navalny. As at one time about South Africa - de clerk, of course, but also Mandela. And now and inside the country. And the point is not only in the fame of Navalny, which is an order of magnitude more than that of all other oppositionists combined. The Kremlin “appointed” his main enemy, and hence the natural leader of all the opposition forces of Navalny. As a funny stylistics - the refusal to pronounce the name - every time they talk about the “patient of the Berlin clinic”, Navalny adds supporters, as well as an indistinct, miserable muttering in response to obvious questions. And most importantly, they don’t try to kill anyone! An attempt to kill is unambiguously read as a manifestation of fear.

Of course, he is not a “Kremlin project”.

The Kremlin objectively promotes it exclusively due to its own inadequacy. Understanding what the real James Bonds are, is it worth it to be surprised at the wisdom of the authorities, from the same supermen and the one who came out?

Both in the democratic elections and in the revolutionary situation are not chosen at all, but from the existing alternatives. And the alternatives, it turns out, is not: the structure of the Russian opposition movement was extremely simplified, reduced to Navalny and his team. It can upset or delight, but it is. There are advantages - the opposition (not the leaders of the non -meaningful parties, but people dissatisfied with the Kremlin) is consolidated. But there are also disadvantages - the dependence of the future on one person, and hence the chance of the emergence of another personalist regime. And taking into account what Navalny passed through, it is not at all obvious that this regime will be soft.

If the power in one way or another leaves in the foreseeable future from the political arena (and the empire, if you remember, “mucked in three days”), then the surname of Navalny at the head of the transition government will not surprise anyone and, accordingly, will not give rise to special protests. Any other will cause disputes. Therefore, that

Who is not happy with the position of Navalny, for example, in the Crimea, will have to come to terms.

Of course, it is impossible to exclude the options that has been repeatedly in world history - a military junta that announces both the abominations of the previous regime and the confrontation of irresponsible elements that can destroy the country with their radicalism. In our history, this, perhaps, has not yet happened: the guard put emperors, but did not control herself. But everything happens for the first time! Although there are no personnel - negative selection is everywhere, including when appointing higher posts in the armed forces.

But if we leave this option behind the scenes, while we see that Navalny publicly humiliates his opponents in the authorities. This adds popularity to him - those who have taken the authorities are identified with him. He speaks on their behalf, and they speak through him - this is leadership. And now the movement of Navalny to the first position in the country can stop only three things.

1. First, death. I hope they do not decide to repeat the attempt of the murder, although this cannot be excluded, and the Navalny threat, for sure, understands.

2. Secondly, time is against him. If the regime can maintain the status quo for a long time, then new leaders will appear

3. And finally, the chances of Navalny will fall to become the president if he is forced to stay abroad. It is impossible to control political processes remotely. New people, perhaps from his team, will be advanced to the first roles, and he will be in the role of a honored veteran. That's why

The Kremlin, most likely, will try to put up against it, which are drawn for twenty years, and in a closed court - threatened with arrest right on the ladder.

Well, Navalny, I think, will return! Even if it is directly in jail, since it is from there that he will have a very serious chance to move to the Kremlin. He is seriously.