Neither Europe, nor China. Why Putin did not really do it very much

Who won the most from total quarantine and which countries fought with pandemia more efficiently? About this in the new issueof the program "Money at Free" with economic publicist Maxim Blanc .

The main factor that influenced the world economy throughout 2020 was a new coronavirus. The first outbreak of the disease occurred in China, in the province of Hubay. After the death of several patients by the Chinese authorities, according to official statements, unprecedented measures were taken to stop the spread of the disease. However, despite the closure of borders and a sharp reduction in international cargo transportation, the disease began to quickly spread around the world.

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On January 30, the World Health Organization (WHO) recognized the outbreak of the disease with an emergency that is of international significance, and on March 11 it also declared a pandemic. Chinese experience at that time looked like a disaster: an almost complete stop of entire industries, transport, foreign trade, tourism, services sector. The prospects for repeating all this on the scale of the world economy provoked panic moods on world exchanges.

China, Hubei Province. March 2020

However, there was no repetition. Different countries adopted different approaches to the fight against pandemia. Alena Vershinina understood what came of it:

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Alena Vershinina - about the fight against pandemia

Unfortunately, there is no need to talk about victory over coronavirus. However, the results that various countries managed to achieve are so different that it is quite appropriate to evaluate the effectiveness of approaches. China, where from the very beginning the authorities introduced the most stringent restrictions, managed to not only relatively quickly stop the “first wave”, but also avoid all subsequent ones. In a country whose population exceeds 1 billion 400 million people, less than 100 thousand infected - again, according to official figures.

Russia, whose population is almost 10 times less, overcame a 3 millionth line a few days before the New Year in the number of patients. Moreover, 2 out of 3 million cases of the disease were detected after September 1. That is, they fell on the "second wave", which is accompanied by a deficiency of drugs and a lack of hospital beds in a number of Russian regions.

The funeral of the deceased with the Covid in the cemetery in Kolpin near St. Petersburg. December 2020

To answer the question why China and several other Asian countries, such as Singapore or South Korea, managed to make something that no one else did not succeed, quite simple. Their authorities not only introduced the most stringent quarantine measures, while establishing the supply of the population to everything the most necessary, but also used the months during which citizens sat in self -isolation to create a system of early detection of sick and total control over all the movements and contacts of people.

From the very beginning, Beijing proclaimed the principle "People are more important than money"

Such measures, in particular, provided for regular testing, widespread thermal imagers that could measure the temperature of 15 people per second, and even the very notorious “health codes” that healthy citizens allow us to live normal life, and patients are sent in strict isolation. New cases of disease in China are detected regularly, but such units. And even then they are mostly imported from other countries.

From the very beginning, Beijing proclaimed the principle "people are more important than money." Therefore, the state spent as much as necessary, not forgetting about compensation for business and help to the population. Ultimately, such an approach turned out to be much more economically effective than those half measures that the Russian government decided on. Already in the second quarter - the most difficult for the whole world - recovery growth began in China. Moreover, his locomotives were two factors.

The Russian month of "non -working days", which smoothly flowed into "long" May holidays, has largely turned out to be a meaningless victim

Firstly, the rapid development of the IT industry and especially artificial intelligence. This sector, according to preliminary estimates, will grow in the Middle Kingdom this year by 44.5 percent. In November, China first overtook the United States in the number of patent applications in the field of artificial intelligence. And secondly, the restorative growth was based on internal demand, partly set aside for the time of quarantine. But not only. Nominal income in China, even in the midst of restrictions, did not fall. And according to the results of the first half of the year, about 2.5 percent increased. True, taking into account inflation, per capita income was reduced by 1.3 percent. For comparison, in Russia in the second quarter, even nominal income fell by 5.4 percent, and the real disposable income collapsed by almost 8 and a half percent.

But the main thing is that the Russian month of “non -working days”, which smoothly flowed into “long” May holidays, largely turned out to be a meaningless victim. Unlike the Chinese, in Russia no one even began to create a system that is capable of extinguishing any epidemic in the bud. Electronic passes introduced in Moscow and a social monitoring program could become elements of such a system.

Checking electronic passes in the Moscow metro. June 2020

The next steps in it were to be “health codes” and regular mass testing. Before the end of mass vaccination, this would allow Russia to avoid dozens, or even hundreds of thousands of deaths. The abnormally high mortality in Russia in 2020, which is only to a small extent explained by official data on death from coronavirus, I already paid attention to one of the recent programs. And according to the Sberbank Laboratory, Sberindex, the number of Russians who have been ill of the Covid-19, in the past year is not 3 million, according to official statistics, but more than 16 millions.

In fairness, I must say that the “second wave” of the pandemic covered not only Russia. If you look at the United States, which by a large margin lead both the number of sick, and by the number of deaths from coronavirus, we can conclude that the Russian authorities were far from the most helpless in the face of the disease. But here two circumstances should be taken into account.

USA, November 2020

Firstly, the Americans denied the current US President Donald Trump. And the fact that his administration was not too successful in the fight against Pandemia definitely influenced the choice of Americans. Secondly, the Chinese system of constant monitoring of the entire population of the country in Western countries is impossible due to legislative restrictions that are guarded by the inviolability of private life. There are no such restrictions in Russia. And in surveillance of their own citizens, our country goes along the Chinese path, without deviating at a yota. Only this is done by no means for medical purposes.

The creation of a medical monitoring system required not only money, but also a political decision

So fighting coronavirus was prevented by the banal reluctance of the authorities to bear additional expenses. And this desire to save on the fight against the spread of the disease led to multi -billion dollar additional costs for treatment and “pluging holes” in the healthcare system, which was not ready for the scale of the “second wave”.

However, the creation of a national medical monitoring system required not only money, but also a political decision. And only President Vladimir Putin could accept it. But in March and April he was busy with completely different things. With the light hand of the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin Russia waged war for the redistribution of the global oil market.

Vladimir Putin and Igor Sechin

The Oil War extending a little over a month has become one of the main events of the outgoing year for Russia. It influenced not only the growth rate of the economy or export revenue, but also on Putin’s moral and psychological state, and, as a result, for the entire subsequent economic and social policy of the state.

A detailed chronology of this failed Blitzkrieg is described in the program “Money at Free” on April 13th.

The vice-president of Lukoil Leonid Fedun, who from the very beginning was very unpleasant about plans to fight for the share of the oil market, compared a historical deal with the OPEC with the Brest world-a difficult, shameful, but vital.

Putin was in the "knockout" almost to the vote on amendments to the Constitution

I will not even assume what arguments the resort of Donald Trump in communicating with the Russian president, but for the latter it was a blow, after which Putin was in Knockut almost to the vote on amendments to the Constitution. The Russian officials stopped counting how much Russia was enough for Russia, and the Ministry of Finance left the National Welfare Fund alone and made a bet on building public debt to finance budgetary obligations.

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump at the G20 summit in Germany. July 2017

As for the oil market, then the agreement within the OPEC+ problems did not end there. The oil storages nevertheless overflowed. And on April 20, something that never happened before. The cost of the May contract for the American WTI oil variety fell to minus $ 40 per barrel. The day, which was dubbed the Bloody Monday, has been the last for many oil traders. Moreover, they not only lost everything, but they should also remain.

Other topics of the new program "Free money" with Maxim Blanc:

• Nefteedollars. What did the negative oil prices have taught
• Money and technology. How the Internet saved the economy
• The piggy bank of the progress of the prognosis