A rally against amendments to the Constitution in Yekaterinburg. Photo: ivana / wikicommons

The outgoing year was “bad”, “unsuccessful” and “heavy” both for Russia as a whole and personally for most Russians. These are the results of a survey of public opinion conducted by the Levada Center on December 18–20 and dedicated to the results of 2020.

Coronavirus is not to blame

88% of respondents believe that a year was more difficult than the previous one. These are the worst grades over the past 20 years. It was worse only in the crisis 1991-1992 and in 1998.

The pandemic has become a catalyst for negative moods growing since 2018, after raising the retirement age. She showed the accumulated problems of Russian society and its relations with the state. People are not ready to dump everything on Koronavirus, because they are aware that the last 10-12 years for the economy, for the development of the country have been lost - the real incomes of the population have decreased by 11–13%over the years, 2020 took several percent.

Stagnation (unlike an acute crisis) does not imply mechanisms for leaving the state of stagnation and prolonged degradation. In public opinion, this understanding is expressed as a consciousness of chronic dysfunction and humility - “we must endure”. 55–60% of Russians do not believe in the government’s ability to find ways to overcome economic depression and falling incomes of the population. Although the respondents perceive their private life (or the life of their family) less dramatically (here the assessments “a year were more difficult than the previous one” gave 68%), prospects, even in the near future, are painted with pessimism, anximism and general uncertainty, softened by the hope of a small person to “be thrown out” and “if only there was no war”. It is the irrational hopes, illusions and faith in the “Best Future Complete” along with the conviction that the country is surrounded by enemies who are striving if not destroyed, then harm Russia, are the strongest material of the current social order.

It got worse

73% of respondents believe that the next year will be “tense” for the economy, 62% await the same in political life. Such sentiments themselves are not surprising - according to 64% of respondents, the standard of living of the main part of the population in 2020 decreased (8% said that it increased, and 26% remained the same). The work of hospitals and clinics worsened (as 57%of respondents believe), educational institutions (60%), the possibilities of earnings were reduced (59%). The distribution of material goods has become even more unfair than before - 38% think, 43% did not see changes, and only 12% think that the situation in this regard began to improve. The environmental situation has worsened, 43% respond, only 12% of Russians believe that it has improved over the past year.

Other spheres or functioning of other institutions are not evaluated so negatively, although discontent here exceeds positive estimates: the police, law enforcement agencies have changed little, 47% believed so much (16% believe that it has improved, 19% worsened). The feeling of personal safety, if it has become more alarming, is insignificant - the improvement in this regard was noted by 16%, a deterioration - 23%, but the bulk - 56% - believes that everything remained as it was.

In a similar way, the Russians characterize the possibilities of their influence on power, that is, on the adoption of decisions necessary for the company (28% - the effect became less, 11% - more and 55% - remained the same), the opportunity to express the opinion freely (28% - the situation has worsened, 18% - half - remained the same). The deterioration in interethnic relations was noted by 22%, improvement - 13%, and 59%considered them not changed.

Finally, not least, anxiety becomes more and more noticeable due to the deterioration of Russia's relations with the Western countries, due to the intensifying isolation of the country (and self-isolation), expressed by more mature, educated and responsible people who are aware of the foreign policy by the leadership.

Fragmentation and lies

The fact that public moods will be inclined in this direction is unlikely to surprise anyone, this is quite expected. Another thing is to evaluate the events of the year. And here for a sociologist, amazing things are revealed. I will note first of all: a huge part of the population (more than half) is generally outside the general event space - more than a third of Russians (36%) could not name a single remembered event and another 16% mentioned exclusively events from personal life. Another feature of our “public opinion” is the meager size of groups that can experience any events, the lack of memory mechanisms.

A dozen of the most important events of the year called the respondents themselves is as follows:

1. Coronavirus epidemic - 39%;

2. Amendments to the Constitution and the zeroing of the presidential terms of Vladimir Putin - 11%;

3-5. Military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria, Donbass-3%, protests in Khabarovsk and other regional events (elections, disasters, etc.)-also 3%, 75th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War or the Victory Parade-again 3%;

6–7. An attempt to kill, poisoning Alexei Navalny - 2%, the resignation of Dmitry Medvedev from the post of chairman of the government and the appointment of Mikhail Mishustin - 2%instead of him;

8–10. US presidential elections - 1%; Protests in Belarus and elections in Moldova-1%, Vladimir Putin’s press conference-1%.

In other words, the technology for managing or manipulating the mass consciousness implies its fragmentation and sterilization of the ability to hold anything from the stream of what is happening, suppressing their connection, which means the reasons and the possibility of their understanding. If you add here and information forgery, lies and discrediting of ideological and political opponents, the effect will be complete.

This is best seen in the example of Navalny: 78% of the respondents know about the attempt, but more than half (56%), in accordance with the attitudes of federal television channels, considers this information either a “fake” (there was nothing, staging), or “a provocation of the Western special services”, or sorting within the Russian opposition. Only 15% are convinced that we are talking about a critic of the authorities, an attempt to physical elimination. Deeply sitting fear and identification with uncontrolled power turn out by aggression against the outrageous of the general order of humility.

Vladimir Putin - minus 24 percentage points

Ten persons, which made up the short list of the “man of the year” in the answers, are represented mainly by the president and his closest environment. Like the past 18 years, it is headed by Vladimir Putin, although the share of those who called him in this capacity decreased from 2014 from 57 to 33%. The subordinate higher officials - Mishustin, Sergey Shoigu and Sergey Lavrov - mentioned, respectively, 13, 7 and 4%. In third place was Alexander Lukashenko - 8%. The fifth position was taken by Alexei Navalny with 5%. Then went: US President Donald Trump with 3%, former Governor of the Khabarovsk Territory Sergey Furgal and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin and Ilon Musk - 2%each.

But these average indicators hide the differentiation of the people themselves who noted certain events. Putin (both his officials and Lukashenko) inserted almost exclusively poor and elderly Russians (90% of them over 45 years old), residents of the depressive province - villages and small cities, people with a monthly family income of less than 35,000 rubles. Navalny was mainly nominated by young and educated people, residents of the largest cities, initiative and enterprising groups of the population - entrepreneurs, managers, specialists and students.

The assessments of key political events are also accurately shared: amendments to the Constitution (more precisely - the destruction of the previous constitutional order) is approved by groups of dependent people - officials, state employees, on the one hand, and poor, elderly, pensioners - on the other; They condemn-educated, young, successful and enterprising populations, less dependent on the state, the most informed residents of megacities who are not inclined to trust TV propaganda. In the first weeks, protests in Khabarovsk approved and supported 43% of respondents, condemned-14%, the rest reacted to them without any interest, indifferently. The Russians did not so unequivocally evaluated the events in Belarus - the support and sympathy of Lukashenko were twice as high as the protesting (38 and 17%), most of the respondents were clearly negative about them. Imperial attitudes and values played the role of a barrier that impedes sympathy and identification of himself with rebellious Belarusians. Both other demonstrations - non -violent, as follows of the law - aroused initially enormous interest, since they were perceived as a model of legal change in the authoritarian and corrupt regime, including in Russia. But the absence of any result led to the disappointment and fall of interest and attention to these events.

Back or change

All the most important social events of the last year are the perversion of the Constitution, demonstrations in Khabarovsk, mass protests in Belarus, the war in Karabakh, the poisoning of Navalny, economic stagnation, from which there is no and cannot be released in the near future, strengthening the repressive legislation, consolidating censorship and arbitrariness of the Russian Guard and others - fit into the general logic of the processes of the decay of the Soviet totalitarian system, accompanied by retreats and reverse movements. The weakness of our political scientists, observers and publicists consists in the desire to describe and interpret what is happening exclusively from a real, short temporary range of understanding. Hence the deficiency of linguistic means of analysis and hope that can return the country to the previous path of democratic transit: either the street will say its word, or a real leader will come, which will combine disparate opposition parties into a single movement for the legal state and all good.

The essence of totalitarianism does not come down to mass terror. The main thing is that the state extends its control to all spheres of society, which had previously been free from the influence of power: the private life of the family, morality, religion, science, culture, civil associations and organizations. It becomes “total”, assigns the right to dictate to himself, what is correct or permissible, and what is not, in accordance with the interests of the ruling class.

Putin became an expression of a conservative reaction to the collapse of the USSR in 1991, an attempt to regenerate its most important institutions (political police, ships, education systems, propaganda, competition of political parties) and discrediting the reformers themselves the former system and the idea of democracy itself. These attempts to turn time back, having extinguished the evolution of society with traditionalist demagogy and repressive legislation, the struggle against foreign influence and color revolutions caused in 2011-2012. A wave of mass protests, neutralized only by the patriotic mobilization of Krymnash. But such a resource ended in 2018. The society is poor. Understanding this, the regime is preparing for a new wave of protests, creates the Russian Guard ready to shoot at the people, feeds the bureaucracy, police and troops, eliminating the constitution, developing new legislation, which opens up the possibilities of wide repressions against any manifestations of discontent and criticism of the regime.

The fact that dissatisfaction will accumulate and intensify was no secret to anyone. A society, clamped in the grip of bureaucratic regulation, will try to move and resent. But the authorities intend to suppress them in the most ferocious and cynical way, discredit, to silence, which forms the consciousness of mass helplessness (“nothing can be done”), fear and alienation from politics. The chances of the success of the protesters are minimal, but not zero, since the desire of people for changes has ripened, more than 60% of Russians want them in one form or another. Passive disagreement with power, aversion to it, contempt, increases and accumulates, but so far all this is only the emotions and thoughts of the minority, educated and entrepreneurial. It is opposed to a sovereign plutocratic state, which has the resources of violence, and the sly people with its always “approving-s”. Will this society be able to resist the arbitrariness of power or will be satisfied with the expression of emotions on Facebook?

Don't know.

The results of the year in the public opinion of Russia: events and people - vtimes