Translated material
What happens to the pandemia after the New Year holidays
During the New Year holidays, the official increase in the infected Covid-19 in St. Petersburg decreased. However, epidemiologists predict that soon the incidence will return to the level of December. During the holidays, the number of hospitalizations decreased: the authorities explain this by the reluctance of people to seek medical assistance and fear the growth of the number of serious patients. Doctors complain of high load and fatigue.
“Paper” tells how the incidence of coronavirus in St. Petersburg changes, whether to soften the restrictions and what happens in coronavirus hospitals and clinics, where they are vaccinated from Covid-19.
The official increase in the infected decreased to 2.7 thousand per day. Before that, the incidence of a month and a half held on the same level, which could indicate statistics manipulations
From November 26 to January 5, the daily incidence of COVID-19, according to the Government Site “Stopkoronavirus”, was held in the region of 3700. The authorities associated such a pattern with the volume of testing, and the former adviser to Rosstat Alexei Raksha-with statistics manipulations . For a month and a half, the city level of hospitalization changed (at the end of December 3.8 % of the beds remained free), which, according to the demograph, did not correlate with the stable growth of the sick.
From January 7 to January 11 in St. Petersburg, the number of COVID-19s of daily identified cases dropped to about 3 thousand and remained at this level until January 12. On Tuesday, the authorities reported on 2731 new cases of coronavirus.
At the same time, according to alternative incidence statistics from the Smolny website, in January, in January, 888 to 2140 patients Covid-19 were detected -an average of two to three times less than in December. Now this indicator is growing again. The authorities explain the difference between Smolny and Stopkoronavirus data by different calculation methods .
If at the end of December the generalized data on the incidence for a week from Stopkoronavirus exceeded the numbers in alternative statistics by 1-2 thousand , then by January the difference between them was almost 10 thousand.
In St. Petersburg, 17 % of beds are free. Doctors talk about high load and an increase in the number of heavy patients
By January 11 in St. Petersburg, there were free 2160 beds for patients with coronavirus, which is 17.4 % of the total number of places. This was reported by the press service of the apparatus of the vice-governor Oleg Ergashev.
At the same time, the number of hospitalizations with Covid-19 and pneumonia in January decreased. If on the middle and late December, on average, on average, 900-1000 people were sent to hospitals, then in January-700–800, follows from the data of the City Coordination Council to counteract the Covid-19. The authorities associate the decline in the number of hospitalizations with the fact that during the holidays people traditionally seek medical help. However, this can lead to an increase in the number of severe patients.
"Paper" interviewed the employees of the Pokrovskaya and Mariinsky hospitals, where they accept patients with coronavirus. According to doctors, the load remains high, there are almost no free places.
- There are no free beds in the city Pokrovsk hospital today, the place is released only after the treated patients are discharged. During the work of the ambulance in the red zone (from April to date), 11,100 patients were treated. 944 surgical interventions were performed. The provision of high -tech surgical care for the installation of pacemakers, stents, operations on the vessels of the legs, the gall bladder, and appendectomy does not stop.
The employee of the Mariinsky hospital, where in December there was a scandal due to the reduction of part of the doctors, anonymously told Paper that by January, due to the lack of beds, the reception of the recovery was turned into a hospital, "hanging a whole detachment of 20+ beds on the doctors of the adoptive rest." According to him, patients are also placed in the shock therapy department, and several resuscitation beds appeared in the new gynecology department.
- Mortality is much higher than that time [in the first wave], but there are no more places. Plus, in the hospital, a shift in leadership and a mess (in October 2020, the chief physician Oleg Emelyanov resigned from the Mariinsky hospital, who worked there for 22 years, the former head of the VMA clinic Anatoly Zavrazhnov came to his place-approx. “Papers” ). So, we have all the protection - and very good, but personal hygiene products are not supplied. There is neither toilet paper, nor something to wash, there are no personal lockers. In general, people are tired on the verge of dismissal.
The doctor of the Intercession Hospital also complained to the “paper” at the increased number of severe patients, in comparison with the fall: “resuscitation with a bit”. This is confirmed by official data: according to the report of the Coordinating Council, in December and January severe patients occupied more than 2–2.5 thousand beds (in the last two weeks - about 24 % of the total), although about 1–1.5 thousand in the previous months. Almost all other patients in hospitals are moderate.
In total, by January, 16 city and 7 federal hospitals were taken by coronavirus. At the end of December, a new building of the hospital for veterans of wars was opened in St. Petersburg, as well as another pavilion of the Provisional Hospital at LenExpo.
The peak of incidence in St. Petersburg is expected in February. Epidemiologists believe that the New Year holidays in general will not affect the epidomation
Experts from the Center for NTI Polytekh expect the peak of the second wave according to the number of active patients in St. Petersburg in late January - early February 2021. On December 23, the Vice-Rector of St. Petersburg State University for promising projects, the head of the working group in mathematical modeling and forecasting of Covid-19 pandemia, Alexei Borovkov, spoke about this “paper” .
By January 12, in St. Petersburg, according to Stopkoronavirus, more than 100 thousand active patients. According to the city coordination council, under the supervision there are more than 72 thousand people with confirmed coronavirus, of which 67 thousand are on outpatient treatment.
Governor Alexander Beglov spoke on the air on Radio Russia that the situation remains “difficult”, and after the end of the holidays, the city may “encounter an increase in incidence and an increase in the number of daily hospitalizations”.
The epidemiologist, a European University Researcher, Anton Barchuk believes that after the New Year holidays there will really be an increase in incidence - but it will simply return to the level of December. This was also said by the “Kommersant” at the end of the year epidemiologists: in their opinion, the situation may even improve slightly.
- In global terms, these holidays, since they are largely family ones, is a division and decrease in incidence. This always happens: in every New Year's holidays, the growth of patients with infectious diseases decreases. A decrease in the incidence can already be seen in statistics. But growth will go further, since people will go to work again, and we will go to the numbers that were in December.
The authorities considered the possibility of mitigating restrictions. Now they don't talk about it
In early December, Governor Alexander Beglov announced his readiness to mitigate the restrictions when improving the situation with coronavirus. The deputy chairman of the Committee on Industrial Policy and the head of the situational center, Alexander Sitov, also said that "there is a great hope for relief." However, on December 24, Sitov said that the situation with the Covid-19 in St. Petersburg does not allow to weaken restrictions on the New Year holidays. He did not directly say about further plans.
- In the first place is always the life and health of our inhabitants, in second place - the economy. People need to earn money, they need to receive a salary, but they need to proceed exclusively from the safety of life. At the moment, the situation is being assessed every day, until the decision has been made. As soon as there is an opportunity, it will be instantly accepted. Obviously, so far such an opportunity does not arise.
The epidemiologist Anton Barchuk believes that in the current situation to cancel restrictive measures “will be difficult”. In his opinion, the authorities can even tighten the prohibitions if the incidence increase is higher than the December.
In St. Petersburg, vaccination from coronavirus continues: more than 13 thousand people are vaccinated. Most recording clinics - a few weeks ahead
By January 10, 13,692 people were vaccinated from coronavirus in St. Petersburg, of which 384 ended the vaccination cycle. More than half of them were vaccinated during the New Year holidays. This follows from the report of the City Coordination Council to counteract the Covid-19.
There are 9 thousand doses of the satellite V vaccine in the city, all of them already have an entry in clinics, the healthcare committee said . “Most recording is a clinic - a few weeks ahead. These are not tickets in the theater ... There are streams of those who wish. A feature of vaccination is one ampoule for five people. Not everyone can come. The recording goes to the waiting sheet. In some areas there are more people, in others, less, ”the Komzdrava press service told Paper .
A new batch of vaccines of 20 thousand doses in St. Petersburg is expected in mid -January. For comparison, earlier Petersburgers used about 18 thousand doses in ten days. The largest batch of 66 thousand doses should be brought to St. Petersburg until the end of this month.
By January 11, 70 vaccination points operate in St. Petersburg, but the authorities promise to increase their number to 100. In particular, they want to open the points at large city enterprises.
Smolny website publishes statistics on Covid-19-it differs from the data of Stopkoronavirus. The reports have numbers that were not previously in the public domain. Read more here .
The head of the department for organizing outpatient medical care, Larisa Solovyova, said that the Coordinating Council was based on the federal register, the data in which health workers provide. “Stopkoronavirus” takes into account positive tests confirmed by Rospotrebnadzor (RPN rechecles them). According to Solovieva, the data of "Stopkoronavirus" is more "stable".
At the 50th, 51st and 52nd week, in alternative statistics in St. Petersburg, 25 028, 24 020 and 24,932 cases of coronavirus disease were recorded, and on Stopkoronavirus-26 333, 26 327 and 26,284, respectively.
At the 1st and 2nd week, 16 780 and 13 050 new diseases were recorded in alternative statistics, and 26,253 and 22 685, respectively, on Stopkoronavirus.
How vaccination goes in St. Petersburg and how safe the “satellite V” is, read in another material “Paper” . Here are other important texts about Covid-19: about why not everyone falls into the statistics of the dead, that scientists have learned about infection and that local therapists say their work.
Photo on the cover: Alexander Baranov / "Kommersant"