Armin Lesch headed the party Merkel and wants to conduct business with Moscow. Will he become a chancellor of Germany?

The Christian Democratic Union (HDS)-the ruling party of Germany, which the Chancellor of Angela Merkel headed for 18 long years-has remained in the suspended state for the past two years. At first, Merkel announced the departure from politics and left the post of head of conservatives, then her successor Annegret Kramp-Carrenbauer could not live up to the expectations of colleagues and resigned. On January 15–16, the first Virtual Congress of the CDS was held in history, where delegates from all over Germany finally decided who would lead the party to victory in the September elections. As a result, the chairman of the Union was the Prime Minister of the Earth North Rhine-Westphalia Armin Lesh-not the most obvious candidate. “Sympathetic to Putin”, Catholic, a moderate liberal, journalist and successor of the migration policy Merkel - Lesh must traditionally become the ninth chancellor of Germany. But this time everything can go in spite of the German way, because even in his own team there is a more popular politician.

At the decisive virus congress of the CDU, according to voter surveys, the ex-head of the faction, businessman Friedrich Mertz, was supposed to win the victory. As of January 2021, 40% of the CDU supporters and 35% of adherents of other parties would like to see the Mercke at the head of the Union. The chosen one, the climb, gained 35% and 34%, respectively, and the outsider of the race - the head of the foreign policy committee of the Bundestag Norbert Rettgen - 32% and 27% of the votes of citizens. But it was necessary to solve one way or another not to dozens of millions of Germany citizens, but 1001 to the party to the party. He gave his voice 991 of them. The confrontation between the crawls and the lazhet stretched for two rounds, and in the second round of the head of the North Rhine, Lashte still managed to win - 521 votes against 466.

Toast for women

At the congress, each candidate allocates 15 minutes for the final performance. And the leader of the race Friedrich Mertz probably lost to Lashte precisely because of a rather weak speech before the delegates.

Laisch in his appeal was restrained and in the spirit of Merkel calmly expressed a party position in relation to other parliamentary factions and acute social issues. Speaking the first (in alphabetical order), Laun demanded from the rostrum to protect democracy from right -wing radicals. He recalled how in 2019 a neo -Nazi from the Combat 18 combat group ( banned in Germany, its materials were also recognized as extremist and prohibited by the court in the Russian Federation ) shot a member of the CDS, a policy from Kassel Valter Lyubka.

“We will not let the right terrorists and inciters destroy our country,” said Lesh.

The candidate also promised to achieve unity within the CDS and demanded that the same party members "express themselves clearly, but not poison."

Lesh, who since 2005 has been involved in the Northern Rhine-Westphalia issues of integration of migrants, said that he wanted to continue to develop a party in this direction and attract more women and young people to politics.

In only one point, candidates for the post of chairman parted greatly. The internal party crisis in the CDU began after the conservatives entered into an alliance with the right -wing populists from the Alternative for Germany (ADG) to elect the local Tyringia government. By this, the ruling party violated the post-war taboo to cooperate with the nationalists, and as a result, the successor Merkel Kramp-Carrenbauer left the post. Lash responded to the crisis calmly: the ruling Center Party, in his opinion, should negotiate even with those who she “may not like it”, and look for ways to compromise.

The businessman Mertz acted more radically: “There will be no cooperation with the Adg with me: neither in the Landtags ( local parliaments . - Ed. ), Nor in the Bundestag, nor in the European Parliament.” In addition, he devoted part of the speech of the Pandemia of Coronavirus, which favorably distinguished him against the background of Lashet. He called the Pandemia an “emergency”, which gives a chance to look at the German economy in a new way and change a lot. Merts guaranteed that the business in Germany will survive the crisis and will begin to develop again.

Only one item in the speech of Merets could significantly knock him down the price in the eyes of the candidates. And this is a matter of equality of men and women in Germany.

The politician made a rather unexpected move and translated the theme of “problems with women” in Germany to his family:

“I know that in the issue of gender policy we must become better, we must do more. But if I really had, as many say, problems with Zheshchina, then my daughters would have long been showing me a “yellow card”. And my wife would not have come for me 40 years ago. ” According to Der Spiegel magazine, because of this move, Mertz "completely lost to the Lashte in the topic of equality."

The media report that after the defeat, Frederick Mertz has already expressed his readiness to become the Minister of Economics in the new government after the elections. Competitors from among the Social Democrats previously warned the country's leadership against such decisions. “Frederick Mertz made it clear with his actions that in the economy ethics does not play any role for him. This factor unequivocally disqualifies it in the race for high posts in the CDS and in the leadership of the country, ”said Frank Schwabe, deputy of the Social Democrats faction. Criticism was caused by the fact that until April 2020, Mertz was a member of the Board of Directors of the company Stadler Gruppe, which owns the Fanipol Plant in the Minsk Region of Belarus, engaged in the production and supply of trains for the subway. Several single -party people from the CDU told Spiegel that the plant was opened “with the support of the regime”, and Merts himself traveled to Minsk in 2014, where he took part in negotiations with Lukashenko.

Understanding Putin

The theme of relations with Russia practically did not play a role in the race for the post of head of the CDS, delegates and candidates devoted much more time to intra -German policy. The only thing that forced Christian democrats to recall Moscow these days is the fate of the North Stream 2 gas pipeline, which, after the poisoning of Navalny, could fall under sanctions.

Both Mertz and the third candidate, Rettgen, consistently advocated freezing the project, despite the fact that such an outcome could dump voters from them from Mecklenburg-pass Pomerania, whose ports remain beneficiaries of the project.

Only Armin Lesh spoke out against lightning -fast decisions on the issue of doing business with Russia.

The head of the North Rhine does not consider the project political and does not want to publicly draw conclusions about who poisoned Navalny.

According to Lashet, Germany should first wait for Russia to conduct an investigation into an oppositionist, and then make a joint decision on sanctions against the Northern Potok -2 with the European Union.

After the events in the Crimea of ​​2014, the term Putin-Versteher (“understanding Putin” or “sympathetic to Putin”) was born in German politics. This group of politicians included ex-Chancal of Germany, friend of Vladimir Putin and chairman of the board of directors of Rosneft Gerhard Schroeder, the former head of the Law Popopulistic ADG Alexander Gauland and the ex-head of the left-wing faction of Sarah Wagenknecht. Together with them, the "understanding of Putin" also christened the centrist Lashet.

The current head of the CDS responded to the so -called Russian spring with a remark in the newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine. Even if the referendum in Crimea “unequivocally contradicted the norms of international law”, you need to be able to put yourself in the place of a partner and “maintain relations in foreign policy”, then said and urged Germany to stop engaging in “anti -Putin populism”. Laisch recalled then that 1,200 enterprises of the Northern Rhine-Westphalia are somehow involved in investments in the Russian economy, and 40% of gas consumed in Germany, in turn, come from the Russian Federation.

According to Lashet, the policy of Berlin against Moscow under Merkel is largely determined by emotions.

"Was it really right to limit German-Russian relations with communication with naked dancers from Pussy Riot?" - then asked then climb. “The demonization of Putin is not a politician, but Alibi for your ignorance,” the current candidate for chancellors criticized the one -party, recalling his friendship with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and China.

In 2018, Lesch considered UK's statements unproven that the special services of the Russian Federation were involved in the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter Julia.

“Do you not need to present irrefutable evidence if you pushing NATO countries to a joint response? You can relate to Russia as you want, but I studied another approach to interstate relations when I studied international law, ”he wrote in response to the publication about the results of research on the laboratory in Porton Dawn in the Skripals case.

At the same time, the party colleagues expect from the Lashta to the continuation of the Merkel line in everything, including foreign policy.

Analysts believe that the Lashta era in the CDS is best suited for the slogan “without experiments”.

Lashte's race to the chancellor chair. What barriers are there on the way?

In modern Germany, the chairman of the party who won in the elections almost automatically becomes a chancellor - his candidacy is offered by a federal president who has not so many powers, and then approves parliament, where most places are already assigned to the supporters of the right ruling party of the candidate. Now no one has a doubt that most of the chairs in the Bundestag after the September elections will be occupied by the HDS/CSS unit - according to the latest Infratestt survey, 35% of the Germans are ready to vote for the ruling party. For their main competitors, social democrats, only 14%. “Green” will almost certainly join the coalition with the CDS - they are supported by 21% of the population.

Such a process of choosing a chancellor is a tradition, but not a clear rule. In Blok with Christian democrats, the nursing party is going on to the elections-the Christian Social Union in Bavaria. Its leader, and at the same time, the head of Bavaria, Marcus Zeuder enjoys much greater support of the population, which is lazy - 80% of the CDU/CSS supporters want ZoDER to nominate his candidacy for the post of head of the federal government in September. 55% of adherents of other political forces would also like to see him with a chancellor.

The nursing CSS, representing only one region of Germany, where 16% of the country's population lives, is often considered as the “appendage” of the CDU, and such popularity of Bavarian politics at the federal level is a rarity. The Christian block put forward Bavarz in the elections only twice in history. And both times HDS/XSS lost. However, the HSS leader himself so far leaves the answer to the question whether he will put forward his candidacy. Previously, he urged to wait for the results of the CDU congress. Lesh does not deny that he can discuss Zöder's candidacy.

The 54-year-old television journalist Zeuder in the past often conflict with Merkel on a number of internal political issues. He imposed responsibility for the migration crisis of 2015 on the chancellor, sometimes expressed radical anti -migrant views, opposed the policies of open borders in Bavaria, called refugees “tourists”, promoted the bill on the criminalization of blasphemy and wanted to oblige Bavarians to exhibit Christian crucifixes in public places.

Bloomberg sources in the HDS/CSS block say that now even Merkel is impressed by ZoDER's leadership qualities, while the rest of the candidates, according to the many years of government, do not have such features. Nevertheless, the chancellor, according to party discipline, is obliged to support the candidate of the CDS, not the CSS.

During the Pandemia of Coronavirus, Zeuder showed himself as an excellent crisis manager, which actually provided him with a reactive increase in references in the general Federal agenda. He almost immediately introduced a hard regional Lockdown and continued to tighten measures, as well as regulate the healthcare system regardless of Berlin's decisions. Now there are 161 cases of infection per 100 thousand inhabitants of Bavaria. For one of the most densely populated regions of the country, this is not bad, in a small saxony, for example, the indicator is 314 cases.

Another probable Chancellor candidate is the Minister of Health of Germany Jens SPP.

His rating also grew during the pandemic thanks to successful crisis management. SPPA enters the Lashte team, with him he developed the program and supported it at the congress. Bild and Spiegel reported with reference to the sources that the head of the Ministry of Health in case of Lashet’s victory has his own plan: the head of the North Rhine remains at the head of the party, but it will not climb the elections from the CDS/CSS, but the pupa.

The laws of Germany do not interfere with the punks to enlist the support of deputies and to compete for the chancellor position. Another thing interferes - on the eve of the party congress, it turned out that the SPA could personally participate in the organization of public procurement of medical masks at high prices through the Swiss company. The deal for hundreds of millions of euros allegedly lobbled the daughter of the former head of the KhSS Generally Tandler. Perhaps soon the head of the Ministry of Health will have to explain to the government.

If the SPA nevertheless nominates his candidacy on September 26, he can become the first chancellor-open homosexual: the minister in 2017 was combined with a marriage with journalist Daniel Funke.