Konstantin Sonin: "Economic Question"

“Why are economists, who, it would seem, should talk about employment and growth, constantly return to political repression and Alexei Navalny? Because now in Russia, the main restraint of growth is precisely political repressions. Because the return of Navalny to Moscow made it possible, with the right reaction, if not to get out of the dead end, then at least move in the right direction - to soften political pressure, integrate The opposition, which is already tens of millions of Russians, into political life and government.

"The economic mechanism of the dead end is extremely simple-in conditions of political clamp, serious restrictions on political and entrepreneurial freedoms, the economy can grow only due to the physical accumulation of some resource. For example, if there is an excess of cheap labor (the USSR during the migration of the rural population in the cities, China, Belarus in the early 2000s).

Or, for example, if the prices for natural resources are constantly growing. In Russia, these factors came together - rising oil prices, cheap labor after a ten -year crisis. But these factors ended ten years ago - and then, in order to avoid stagnation, not prohibitive laws were needed, but a greater freedom for business, not the nationalization of companies that worked much better in private hands, but improving the conditions for investors, and local, and foreign, not to push businessmen abroad, but restoring order and protecting the business.

In the political sphere ten years ago, there should have been strengthening the election system so that the opposition could win them, and not mass falsifications, not a “swamp business”, but on the contrary, the reform of the police and the special services. It was an inadequate reaction to protests 2011-12, "screwing the nuts", that laid the foundation for a ten-year (already) stagnation. Then it seemed that you could not pay attention to the recommendations of economists, but now, after ten years of low growth rate, it is clear that a vicious path was chosen.

There is no other normal way out of this impasse. A year ago, a sluggish, incompetent and non -ambitious Prime Minister Medvedev replaced the energetic and competent Prime Minister Mishustin. And what? Not trying to take on the main reason for the impasse - the impossible level of political pressure on citizens and business - the government automatically agreed to continue the same stagnation.

Yes, it would be strange to expect from the prime minister, economic deputy prime ministers and ministers of words about the need for political liberalization, but they must pronounce them - if they think about the economy at all. ”