Photo: Mikhail Tereshchenko / Agency "Moscow"

The protests and the need to respond to react were deprived of the Duma elections of the main status of the main in 2021. The events of public policy - but before them only six months, experts of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation write. The domestic political block of the presidential administration has not yet made the final decision, what will be the power strategy in the elections, the VTIMES interlocutors in Old Square confirm. Experts suggested three options for the development of events: hard, medium and soft.

There is not enough decisiveness

The surge of protest activity on January 23 and 31 seriously posed the question of the authorities whether the energy of the streets will become a background for the Duma elections and whether it is possible to count on the preservation of the general apathy, as it was, for example, in the 2016 parliamentary elections, the president of St. Petersburg Policy Mikhail Vinogradov notes.

The report of the Fund says:

- There was no unequivocal signal regarding the election strategy during this time, and the elections themselves remained on the periphery of the agenda. Some experts saw in statements at the seminar with vice-governors in the formula “45-45” (the percentage of the appearance and permissible voting for “United Russia”) psychological readiness to abandon the expectations of ultra-high results of turnout and voting for power in recent years.

Vice-governors in domestic politics, recall, are appointed by the Kremlin and are responsible for the formation of the agenda and holding elections immediately before the presidential administration.

Two interlocutor VTIMES close to the presidential administration It was confirmed that they did not give an unambiguous signal, how to act in the elections. At the last congress of the curators of domestic policy, which took place on February 8–9 in the Moscow Region, it was much more discussed how to counteract promotions in support of Alexei Navalny: flash mobs and his own, “correct” activity, VTIMES said One of the participants in the meeting.

301 votes, but it is possible and less

At a similar January meeting, the need to provide the party in power 301 votes was discussed, but now the Kremlin is not fully sure that this task is really realized.

Much will depend on the message of the president and new social payments, which the president will apparently appoint: will they be able to kill the protesting agenda for a long time? In addition, it is still difficult to evaluate how massive the protest surge will be in the summer, immediately before a single voting day.

Based on the situation, the “St. Petersburg policy” involves three possible scenarios of the Duma elections.

The script is the first

Traditionally, all participants in the process will be convinced of the impossibility or untime of changes and counterproductivity of the opposition game in the State Duma by increasing power pressure and demonstrating total support of the authorities. The technical probability of such a scenario is indicated by the results of voting on amendments to the Constitution, which brought high results, despite the period of reduced ratings of the authorities, remind the experts of the fund. In this situation, the turnout risks falling to 40–45%. In the logic of such a scenario, it is assumed that the protesters will be disappointed that they cannot influence power either on the street or on the polling station, and therefore will not try. True, while the ratings are not enough for confidence in rallying around the president and his party 80% of voters.

The scenario is the second

It implies the possibility of refusing to receive most mandates on party lists, but retains its dominance, and public expectations will justify new party projects. In this situation, the volume of permissible criticism of power by the New Partyers should be expanded. Up to five parties can go to the parliament, but at the expense of single -member districts, United Russia receives about 260 mandates. The risk of such a scenario is a mixture in the minds of elites of elections and protests and the possibility of anxieties regarding the exit of the process from control, the St. Petersburg policy warns.

The script is third

It is allowed to reduce pressure, but here it all depends on the rating of “United Russia” (today balancing around 30%). If the rating will arrange curators, the party will receive its majority at the expense of single -member districts. If the rating continues to fall, it will be possible to lose not only Moscow, St. Petersburg and other regions with a dominant negative agenda (garbage, ecology). Even in an unfavorable situation, they believe in the “St. Petersburg politics”, one cannot take the arithmetic of the majority from the United Russia, but then you will have to go to coalitions with “fair Russia”, “new people” or the Russian Party of pensioners for social justice. Thus, all parties will be satisfied: the protest movement will declare success and record low indicators of power, and the real alignment of forces in the State Duma will allow the executive branch to maintain the “control package”. The probability of this scenario is below the first two, Vinogradov notes, but the very fact that it cannot be considered today is important.

What is the game

A dispute, whether the elections in the State Duma can become the main political event of the year, is due to the blurry of the significance of the deputy mandate in the conditions of a historically established relatively low influence of the parliament on the adoption of operational political decisions, emphasized in the fund. Despite some attempts to restyling the State Duma, there is no significant effect in terms of political or in terms of hardware weight.

The expectations of the growth of the subjectivity of the Duma were not confirmed - if at the start of the Duma it was connected to controversial stories (for example, the story of Moscow renovation), then she stopped looking for itself in this niche, focusing on the “raking of blockages of unacceptable bills” and the operational assistance of the executive branch in solving acute issues of the current agenda. Constitutional changes also did not affect the work of the Duma in a substantial way, which was the rapid statement in the fall of 2020. Several permutations in the government without attempts to convert increased constitutional powers in increasing the impact on personnel decisions.

At the same time, this does not mean that the representative office in the Duma itself has no political meaning. Firstly, the Duma mandates still remain a significant source of status, especially for regional elites. In addition, the election to the Duma is a search for new faces in politics in the conditions of a slow rotation of generations. Also, for example, the Duma are included in the personnel bench - they are appointed to the government and regional governors.

Applicants

"United Russia"

Party ratings are falling. The fund notes that the “stereotype has not been overcome that the refusal of concentrated support of United Russia would help restart relations between citizens and authorities, create an update effect, reduce the anti -ratings of first persons.” At the same time, there is an alternative point of view: “United Russia” has passed the test for hardware and political survival. She calmly incorporated Dmitry Medvedev into her ranks, while maintaining normal relations with the government of Mikhail Mishustin.

The fund states that there is an intrigue around possible attempts to push Vladimir Putin to lead the list of “United Russia” according to the 2007 scenario. This is technically the most understandable script for the authorities, however, the risks associated with attempts to identify the results of the party’s ratings and the results of Putin (historically higher) are obvious. The leadership option in the list of Dmitry Medvedev is also preserved, but it creates uncertainty around the possibility of administrative mobilization in favor of the party. The script with the presence in the list of Mikhail Mishustin is causing a media and elite interest due to the low personal anti -rating of the Prime Minister and its active public positioning.

Communist Party

The Communist Party is concentrated on retraining during the vote of Party No. 2 and the demonstration that from the conflict with the presidential administration around the ex-candidate to the President of Pavel Grudinin, the Communists came out without serious losses (except for the loss of the position of the governor of the Irkutsk region). For supporters of the Communist Party, the question is now whether it will become a party of supporters of Navalny. The fund admits that the Communists will try to take away from this niche - for example, through drawing into the next round of the fight against the burial of Lenin, returning them into a purely ideological and uninteresting protest to rhetoric and aesthetics.

LDPR

Unlike the Communists who lost the post of governor of the Irkutsk region, supporters of Vladimir Zhirinovsky retained control of the Khabarovsk Territory even after the arrest of Sergei Furgal. The problem remains the lack of a full representation in the agenda, not related to Zhirinovsky’s personal activity.

"Fair Russia"

The merger with the parties for truth and the Patriots of Russia has not yet created any synergy. This step can not yet be interpreted as an increase in reference or a deliberate black mark. So, the project "For Truth" as an independent was curtailed. The association itself (little representable without administrative support) shows the preservation of the Socialist -Revolutionaries of the “license” for electoral in the State Duma. True, the voter of these demars may not notice at all: we can assume that a considerable part of the party voters does not follow their election campaign and makes his choice, remaining alone with the ballot.

The rest of the parties

The appearance in 2020 of various “small parties” looked like a study of a more complex option with elements of reformatting a political field. He was and is tested, since his vitality is not completely clear to the players themselves. On the one hand, the authorities tried to take away the votes from other opposition projects and present new persons in conditions of fatigue, on the other hand, curators could not wash off the “image of artificiality”: party brands exist very autonomously from social activity and public request. Although the party received mandates in the regions, there were no surprises there: they passed where they were "promised." In addition, there is a fear that new projects will pull the voices in the United Russia itself.

“New People” are still successfully balancing between the paternalistic and liberal parties. From a resource point of view, the advantage of “new people” remains the designated readiness to spend large funds in comparison with competitors in order to increase fame. The Green Alternative failed to saddle the ecological agenda that is growing - for example, they were not heard in Shies. The party of direct democracy was noticeable only at the time of creation, after which its activity became nominal. The Growth Party with the advent of Sergei Shnurov made an application for the intensification of public presence and the search for new audiences, but 2020 was blurred by this success. The fame of the party remains significant (an indirect confirmation of which was the criticism campaign against Boris Titov after his statements about the individual entrepreneur). Yabloko was caused by the rejection of a huge number of liberal voters after the article by the founder of the party Grigory Yavlinsky about the populism of Alexei Navalny just a few days after replacing him with a conditional term with a real one. Nevertheless, the party retains the opportunity to be a party for Supporters of Navalny. At a minimum, because among the Yablons themselves there are significant differences that are known to the voter watching the agenda. In addition, the party has a number of bright regional activists.

How the authorities are going to provide the majority in the Duma