America is back

US President Biden found an ideological basis for a new Cold War

Joe Bayden made programs of the G7 and the Munich Security Conference, which were held on the same day on February 19 in the video format, as is now accepted.

The new American president announced to the US allies that America has returned after four years of Trump's ideology of isolationism and unpredictability. That Washington will certainly protect and support allies. That the 5th article on the collective defense of the Washington Treaty, on the basis of which NATO was formed in 1949, for the new administration of “Holy”-an attack on one of the alliance members will be considered an attack on everyone. Democratic countries - the United States, their allies in G7 and NATO - defend freedom, but they are opposed by the authoritarian China and the Russian Federation, which distribute lack of freedom by different methods. China applies “economic coercion and financial bribe”, and Russia Vladimir Putin, who will be more pleased with the economy, tries to split NATO and aggressively attacks neighbors.

Biden often remembered Putin in a speech, but only by last name, without a name, position and title. It seems to be wanted to offend.

The European leaders, exhausted by Donald Trump, supported Biden’s speech, as in 1946 the famous Fulton speech of Winston Churchill, who also contrasted the forces of democracy and freedom led by the United States, the dark forces of Tirania. Of course, in terms of oratory, to compare Biden with Churchill is ridiculous, but the general ideological message of two performances is similar: the forces of good, freedom and democracy must act in jointly and restrain the forces of tyranny in peacetime, without waiting for the war. To preserve the world with the help of power (nuclear), political and economic deterrence in every sense is cheaper than then trying to win the war when the “tyrants” will inevitably go on the offensive.

The day before Bayden's program, NATO defense ministers also met online. According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the ministers agreed to recommend to the heads of state and governments to entrust the Alliance to the Alliance Secretariat under the leadership of Stoltenberg himself to prepare an updated NATO strategic concept. In an obsolete, but current document from 2010, “rising China” is not mentioned at all, which now has become a potential threat. In addition, in 2010, Russia was considered a partner with whom it is necessary to establish mutual understanding.

Now it has become clear that Russia is an adversary whose aggression must be restrained by all means in the Baltic region, in Poland and on the Black Sea,

Where Romania persistently asks for reinforcements. The ministers also decided to significantly expand the military presence of NATO in Iraq and in Afghanistan to help the training and weapons of local forces.

Of course, practically no one in Europe sees any immediate military threat from the PRC, and it is unlikely that anyone, with the exception of, perhaps, Great Britain, is ready to send any military forces to the Asia-Pacific region after China is recorded as a potential threat in the new NATO concept. But this is not necessary: ​​there the Americans create another anti -Chinese NATO with Japan and Australia, which have become powerful military powers in recent years, as well as India, which is rapidly approaching the United States on an anti -Chinese basis. Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea may also connect. China is afraid and do not like many. By the way, Germany proposes to create a certain “trade and technological council”, which, obviously, should, with the help of coordinated licensing, various embargoes and sanctions, inhibit scientific and technological progress in the PRC and the Russian Federation, so that the future of mankind is “determined by democracies, and not authoritarianism”.

So far, the Alliance led by the United States will restrain China, NATO in Europe, in the surrounding seas, in Africa and in the Middle East will be preoccupied with the deterrence of Russia. In the Second Cold War, as in the first, an ideological confrontation is now indicated, and the system of conventional and nuclear deterrence is also formed so that this war remains cold. In the past 10 years, due to the re -equipment, restoration and modernization of the Soviet heritage, Russia has achieved overwhelming superiority at the European theater in tanks, in army artillery and missiles, as well as in tactical nuclear weapons. In the meantime, until 2014, Europe reduced military expenses and disarmed, not seeing any threat from the east. Now the process of European unilateral disarmament has ended, and the technological gap between the Western armies and the RF Armed Forces is rapidly increasing, but with the last numerical superiority of the latter. As a result, an extremely unstable balance has developed at the European Potential Theater of Military. In the event of even a small skirmish or local conflict in the western, north-west or southwestern directions, the military headquarters in the east and in the West will persistently demand from political leadership a sanction to conduct large-scale preventive (proactive) blows to the enemy, since any delay guaranteed is guaranteed to lead to a complete defeat. In this option, non -strategic nuclear weapons will most likely be used almost immediately.

The risk of possible rapid escalation in the event of any direct clash and catastrophic “defrosting” of the Second Cold War will be so great in the coming years that both parties will probably try to avoid any skirmishes, and there is a chance that with constant balancing on the verge of war the confrontation of the Russian Federation and NATO will remain “frozen” at the main theater, although

The proxy-warriors on the strategic periphery are practically inevitable.

In the fall of the 20th, a bloody 44-day war in Karabakh passed. The escalation in the Donbass has now begun. Bayden announced in his “Munich” speech that both the US and the EU should jointly support Ukrainian independence and territorial integrity, which, undoubtedly, will follow the response from Moscow. The likelihood of a direct military clash with the United States and its NATO allies in the event of an escalation of hostilities in the east of Ukraine is minimal, and it is this region that can become an arena of a serious proxy-warrior of Russia with the West like Vietnam, Afghanistan or the Middle East during the First Cold War.

The USSR was superpower, he had allies under the Warsaw Treaty among the third world countries, but they all fled as soon as the opportunity was presented, and a number of former Soviet republics became officially opponents. Today, both of China and Russia have no capable allies, while the United States has dozens of large, small and mediums around the world. In the Middle East, Washington even managed to advance De Facto an anti -Iranian alliance between conservative Arab regimes and Israel.

Bayden united the Russian Federation and China as two main authoritarian opponents of the world community of democratic countries, but they themselves consider themselves not “allies”, but only “partners”.

China and Russia do not trust each other at all, actively spying one after another, refuse to jointly develop weapons systems and share sensitive technologies, and the Chinese and Russian military just in case do not forget to prepare for a possible bilateral nuclear war. Russian diplomats are well able to give public excommunication to foreign colleagues, but it is not possible to build stable and long -term union relations even with Belarus and Kazakhstan.