In Russia, one call was canceled by seismic danger cards. They will build based on outdated data

§ 229. If the builder built a house a house and did his work overthrow, and the house that he built collapsed and killed the owner, then this builder must be executed. Hammurapi Code 1750 BC

On January 28, at 17.40 in Moscow, an epoch -making event happened in the domestic construction industry. During the video meeting, Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin gave the Minister of Construction and Housing and Public Utilities Ireku Fayzullin to cancel the oral disposal in Russia with the deadline for execution of the main seismic district district of the Russian Federation (OSR-2016), put into force on June 27, 2020. This instruction was not even included in the report on the meeting on the government website. On January 29, Irek Anvarovich signed the corresponding order.

At this moment, the construction of a dry dock under the Kuznetsov aircraft carrier near Murmansk (instead of the drowned PD-50 swimmer) went up by many billions of rubles, and the M12 Moscow-Kazan road (expert estimates reach 800 billion)-to the fifth part. The revaluation should be subjected to many promising construction of Russia in vast territories. We are talking about hundreds of billions of rubles of additional useless expenses, and in the long period - about trillions. This is not an exaggeration, this is the cost of an oral order for our economy. The essence of this managerial paradox should be explained at the very beginning.

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What are cards of general seismic zoning?

Since the beginning of the twentieth century in the most developed countries, attempts have begun to determine the risk of earthquakes in dangerous areas and to take into account additional requirements for building structures in the obliging standards of construction in such areas. The scientific concept of seismic -resistant structures has appeared. The first cards of seismic zoning in our country began to create about 90 years ago. Since then, the domestic seismology has come a long way, modern maps of the general seismic zoning (hereinafter OSR) are compiled according to advanced methods, taking into account the latest achievements of science and computing technology.

The maps indicate the points of the seismic scale from 1 to 12. In the latest version, all gradations were combined more than 9 points - it is no longer important, 10, 11 or 12 points - it is not recommended to build. This is the intensity of possible seismic events. For example, 9 points corresponds to a destructive earthquake with universal damage to buildings.

Generally speaking, we have not one OSR card, but a whole set with different probability levels. The choice of a map for design is determined by the level of responsibility of the construction (from general construction to hospitals and schools, chemical enterprises, dams, metro and, finally, nuclear facilities) - for more responsible, maps are less likely to exceed the intensity of the earthquake. This allows you to use them in territorial planning, urban planning, architectural and construction design, construction, reconstruction of capital construction projects.

The ACR-2016-D map shows the intensity of the maximum calculated seismic influences with the probability of their excess of 0.5% in 50 years and is intended to assess the seismic danger of nuclear power plants, other nuclear complex enterprises. They apply increased requirements, and in addition to our control bodies, the Magate monitors them. An integral part of the cards is an extensive list of settlements for which these levels are indicated.

However, the ideas of scientists about seismic activity are changing over time. New earthquakes occur, new data appear. Somewhere the expected level of seismicity decreases, and somewhere increases. Seismic maps everywhere in the world are updated about every 10-15 years.

Details about how and for what seismic maps are created, which means for scientists and the construction industry the abolition of current CAR-2016 cards, our newspaper was told by the Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Alexei Dmitrievich Zavyalov, the head of the seismic danger of the Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The decision of the liquidator

Unfortunately, the vast majority of those who have achieved the cancellation of the ACR-2016 cards did not respond to our requests. The appeal to the name of Khusnullin was promptly advised to send us to the Ministry of Construction, as if not Marat Shakirzyanovich completely gave the initial order. The Ministry of Construction gave the answer to the Novaya Gazeta.

Its essence boils down to the fact that the builders of Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk, Barnaul, Novosibirsk and Kemerovo complained to the ministry - construction went up in price. A transition period is necessary, the adaptation of regions to new maps. But the law is so arranged that the already announced “excessive period” (as in the text), which, apparently, the regions were not enough, cannot be extended. Therefore, the Ministry of Construction was simply canceled, because he wanted so much - without explanation of expediency. But now the professional community, according to the Ministry of Construction, has time to discuss everything.

Who worked on the cards?

Of course, among the motives of scientists there is a normal civil position of people indicating incorrect managerial decisions. But besides this, the abolition of the ACR-2016 cards (builders use their OSR-97 cards for almost 25 years) actually denied professional competence. This is precisely the unanimous indignation of seismologists from the Academy of Sciences and the Association "Engineering Reviews in Construction."

It is important to know what the authors received the State Prize for maps of the OSR-97 and the methodology of the probabilistic assessment of seismic danger in the Russian Federation (it is based on the OSR-97 and OSR-2016). These cards were accepted by UNESCO as the basis for the preparation of the first global map of the seismic danger of the Earth.

Moreover, the ministers themselves and their device in seismology are not specialists. It makes sense to look at the list of authors of the maps canceled by the Ministry of Construction, it is given in SP 14 in a change in 1. Some of them cooperated with the newspaper. Before us is the best names of the country , the color of Russian seismological science.

I was convinced that the lobbyists, having achieved their own, underestimated the professional and human cohesion of the scientific community.

Geologists, seismologists, geophysics shocked by the solution, literally abandoned the country around the country, turned to many authorities.

This explains a very large number of scientists who wished to speak out, officials and businessmen who support builders.

In the process of preparing an article, issues related to what happened were discussed with more than twenty sources of information in various regions and departments of Russia. A huge amount of information, letters, minutes of meetings, and media materials were involved in consideration. Having no answer to key questions on the merits from the officials who made such a decision, we decided to publish the number of documents in the case for the unprofitated media so that readers themselves could make up their opinion.

On the increase in the cost of construction in Russia

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With the approval of the seismactivity of OSR-2016 for 14 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, assessments of seismic danger have not changed, for 42 they decreased, for 18 they increased. In the transition to OSR-2016, 23 constituent entities of the Russian Federation are transferred to the category of seismically not active regions (mainly the European part of the territory of the Russian Federation), estimates for all three maps A, B, and less than six MSK-64 points become. These subjects from the most economically active, there was no longer required seismic accounting. This is a very great help to the economy - you can build 10-15% cheaper.

So, back to the most loud episodes of this battle. The source of the "Novy" in the Glavgosekspertiza commented: “Today they discussed at a meeting - everything in a stupor. M12 is getting more expensive by 10–20%, the design is stopped there. ” Recall that initially the construction of the M12 Moscow - Kazan was a political project. On July of July last year, Prime Minister Mishustin said that "the Cabinet was faced with the task of putting it into operation in 2024, to the presidential elections." Moreover, the highway is the most important section of the Europe transport corridor - Western China, the construction of which is under Chinese money by agreement signed by Putin and Xi Jinping in 2015.

According to the CAR-2016 maps, there is no seismic activity in the Volga region, and in the early 90s it was believed that there was. And so, when returning to the previous OSR-2015 cards (based on the data of twenty-five years the statute of limitations of the OSR-97 cards), it is necessary to stop the process for at least six months-it is not clear what seismicity to design now.

In the response of the Ministry of Construction to the newspaper, not a word about this, but the question surfaced the murderous question. On February 18, a meeting was held at which the Ministry of Construction hastened to report that the use of ACR-2016 cards was generally voluntary. And besides, “during the meeting of the FAU“ FCS ”, the FAU“ Glavgosexpertiza of Russia ”and the Avtodor Group of Companies confirmed” the abolition of the 2016 cards does not affect their work.

Either the press service incorrectly interpreted the minutes of the meeting, or a direct lie sounded on it. To deal with the first argument, you do not have to be a seismologist: if the OSR-2016 cards were actually voluntary use-why did it be necessary to cancel them at all? Why builders began to complain to the government for the rise in price of objects - they would not use it, and the end with the end! This is the force of seismic regions that the whole industry is obliged to proceed from them in the design of the construction projects.

As for the cost of the M12 highway, the day before this meeting, the chairman of the board of Avtodor Group of Companies Vyacheslav Petrushenko sent the Minister Ireku Fayzulin a letter that outstanding extreme concern-he asks him to allow him to continue the construction on the abolished OSR-2016 cards. Because now everything is more expensive, the deadlines are flying to the line and, perhaps, you will have to change the track itself! A source in the Ministry of Construction reported the existing letter of the Avtodor Group of Companies (incoming No. 16906/MS).

The dry dock under the Kuznetsov aircraft carrier on the Kola Peninsula was in the same position. Even in May, it turned out that during its design, the parameters of seismic danger were not taken into account . During the recount, the construction price increased due to the 8-point earthquakes allegedly expected there from 16 to 33.6 billion rubles.

The contractor did not have that kind of money, a conflict arose, the case came to the Prosecutor General. One can imagine what relief the Minh Industry and the United Shipbuilding Company breathed a breath with the Ministry of Industry and Trade, when in July new cards no longer required more expensive seismic -resistant construction. January 29, the price doubled again. But the day before the meeting, Fayzulin, the Deputy Minister of Defense flew there at Fayzulin. Interestingly, he was told about the changes?

The urgent response of the Ministry of Construction was as follows: “After canceling the action of the OSR-2016 cards, the seismicity of the dry dock increased from 5 to 6 points, which does not require additional work and surveys and will not lead to the rise in the cost of the object.” The problem of the Ministry of Construction is in full accessibility of all documents on OSR cards. Even data on the seismic danger of plots under the bases of our nuclear submarines are absolutely accessible to any citizen. The dry dock of the Ministry of Defense (the largest in Russia) is an object of increased level of responsibility, taking into account hydraulic engineering features, Cards C were the basis. We open the previous OSR-2015 cards, on which the whole country now lives, and we see 7 points, prepare money!

Search for beneficiaries

Some interlocutors, talking about the abolition of cards, especially highlighted the figure of the deputy chairman of the government of Marat Khusnullin-he remains in the shade, but somehow interested, because he gave the starting team. By studying all the circumstances, it is strongly impossible to believe in this. Khusnullin and Fayzulin immigrants from Tatarstan, they can have very impressive interests there.

In Kazan, after the abolition of the 2016 cards, the construction immediately became more expensive and longer (seismic hazard increased by one point, for unique and especially dangerous buildings by two points). In order not to increase the cost, for each object it will be necessary to perform a set of work - to clarify seismicity, soil behavior on a particular site. The abolition of cards, of course, is a real bomb for the entire industry, but a sane person will not blow it up in a historical homeland. This problem was the abolition of the ACR-2016 cards for the entire Volga region.

The version of the ministerial intrigue is more trust. Since the answers of the Ministry of Construction seem to be written in a hurry, and the deputy chairman of the government is silent, it is possible that they were convinced by court lobbyists or good acquaintances (usually these statuses are combined). Since a lot of “opponents of cards on a commercial basis” participates in the collision, it should be mentioned that there are also officials who have connections with them in the government.

Search LLC (TIN 7702556497) is engaged, in particular, a business on engineering surveys and a seismic danger assessment, showing fantastic financial results. In 2019, his revenue amounted to 105 million for 14 employees. And the profit is 76.5 million rubles.

The unanimous opinion of our sources -

Such profitability is hardly possible in this work at existing rules and market prices. Rather, it may indicate a reassessment of seismic hazard on paper.

Co -owner of the company Vladimir Germanovich Shestoperov. His father, German Sergeyevich, close contact of the Deputy Head of the Department of the Ministry of Construction Stepanov. In the video in the Ministry of Construction, the Shestoperov participated under his surname and from his office.

In this case, you need to see who criticized the new cards and “turned the plane” 180 degrees into the past? These people have their own interests, they practically do not hide them. Moreover, as we will see, they write not to the Academy of Sciences (she recommended that the OSR-2016 not be approved-with such an authority they could not be equal), but immediately to Mishustin and Putin.

Trading points

In many regions, there has long been a lively commercial process of lowering seismic hazard of plots under buildings. The mechanism is described in a known joke, when the rabbi saw a wallet under the gathering of the gutters on Saturday. In order not to violate the prohibition of work, he called to the Lord and at the same moment he realized - throughout the country Shabbat, and in the area of ​​the cast -iron grate came Thursday. In our Caucasus, however, they do not really rely on the mercy of the Higher Forces, changing geological reality with the help of money. One of the interlocutors of "New" described this from personal experience as follows:

“It's simple. There is a builder. Builds a 16-story monolithic house in Makhachkala. The number of meters is known, the construction price is known, and the average cost in the apartments market is known. The profit is known.

But! If you lower the seismicity of the site from 9 points to 8, this is less reinforcement, below the concrete brand, thinner of the wall, columns. This allows you to reduce the cost of percent by 10-15 construction, ceteris paribus. Increase profits.

Then they go to local geologists who are engaged in lowering points, write conclusions. The dialogue is about this:

- Listen, brother, here is such a thing, I need to lower the score.

- Not a question, bring 2 million rubles, we will do in the best possible way.

- Listen, brother, can you lower it by two points?

- Listen, brother, how will I lower it? You yourself understand that they can also check us. Only if for you, brother. Five million. But money in cash - I will not make anything, I will give you a letter, we write here to everyone. They know me there in the examination. ”

This can be accepted as an unproven bike. But from the same source, the editors received stunning documents indicating how such “geological services” work for developers in Dagestan.

Unable to overcome traditional corruption, the authorities of Dagestan reacted to reduce point on the cards of the OSR-2016 favorably-the saw tool went out of the hands of the developers by itself. The Minister of Construction of Dagestan asks to speed up the statement of cards. And the region is not alone in its requirements . According to our sources, several people in Dagestan, who “traded” a decrease in seismicity, after the approval of the ACR-2016 lost most of the earnings. And they did not slow down with the answer, here is only one of the many .

The Empire makes a response. From Krasnoyarsk

The second group of victims is much more influential than the first - builders from the regions in which seismic hazard increased on new maps. Having canceled them, they hung their losses on colleagues from other regions - but in business each for themselves. Even if it is united in a self -regulating organization.

The new CAR-2016 cards increased seismic hazard in Krasnoyarsk. By coincidence, the NOSTRASTRY SRO, the All-Russian Association, where, by law, all construction time of Russia is obliged to enter, without exception, the Anton Glushkov policy from Krasnoyarsk is headed . It just so happened that his dad Nikolai Sergeyevich Glushkov is an influential politician and businessman , the institute comrade of the Minister of Defense Shoigu (it is not known whether the story with the Dock for an aircraft carrier was reflected on their relationship), a former Minister of Construction and vice-governor of the Krasnoyarsk Territory.

It is clear that the family has stable friendly ties in the industry, including at the very top. Ну и объекты строительства у них тоже есть, только с июня они в Красноярске подорожали. И Антон Глушков высказался решительно за отмену сейсмической опасности с единственным аргументом — для нас дорого. Только не письмом в инстанции, а сразу на совещании «Единой России» по развитию жилищного строительства. Это грамотный ход.

Более 95 тысяч строительных компаний всю полноту власти в промежутках между съездами по уставу отдали Антону Николаевичу. По стечению обстоятельств, письма против новых сейсмокарт начали поступать в Минстрой из Сибири. С тем же требованием выступил министр строительства края.

«Новая газета» задала президенту НОСТРОЙ вопрос — знает ли он, что по картам ОСР-2016 для 14 субъектов РФ оценки сейсмической опасности не изменились, лишь для 18 повысились, а для 42 снизились? Знает ли он мнение своих коллег из этих 42 регионов, например, из Поволжья и с Кольского полуострова? В ответ пресс-служба прислала ссылку на новость — выступление Антона Глушкова на совещании в Российском союзе строителей. Суть его — отмена карт «содействует реализации стратегии агрессивного развития инфраструктуры, направленной на сокращение инвестиционно-строительного цикла». Who would argue? В Спитаке тоже, помним, сокращали цикл и агрессивно развивали инфраструктуру.

Историческая переписка о сейсмической активности в Красноярском крае богата. По совокупности можно сказать одно — Академия наук никогда свою позицию не меняла, и опасность, о которой предупреждала, вполне реальна. В Минстрое мне передали прошлогоднее пояснение авторов карт ОСР-2016, почему игнорировать ситуацию недопустимо, даже если стройки подорожают. Никаких содержательных дискуссий во власти Красноярского края на этот предмет мне обнаружить не удалось, за исключением канувших в Лету планов давностью 15–20 лет.

Итак, строительная индустрия России с 29 января снова живет по картам общего сейсмического районирования ОСР-2015, являющимся клоном карт 1997 года

(плюс некоторые «заплатки» и присвоенная без всякого соблюдения авторских прав украинская сейсмическая карта Крыма). Что же делать с сейсмическими событиями за более чем 20 лет? Это новое знание, его невозможно игнорировать в стиле подметных писем — карты 1997 года нам известны, проверены, а других мы не хотим. Судя по путанице в официальных ответах и неофициальным комментариям пресс-службы Минстроя, пока внятного представления об этом нет. Похоже, в правительстве и сами не ожидали такого шлейфа последствий своего решения.

Деньги против жизни

Покойный профессор Уломов получил Государственную премию за карты ОСР-97. Карты ОСР-2016 делались точно по такой же методологии и во многом теми же людьми. То, что министр перед таким серьезнейшим решением, как отмена карт сейсмического районирования территории Российской Федерации, не встретился ни с руководством РАН, ни с директором Института физики Земли РАН, ни с директором Института геотехники и инженерных изысканий в строительстве (хотя обе организации указаны на картах в выходных данных), говорит о том, что содержательная часть конфликта в правительстве никого не интересовала.

По утверждениям наших собеседников, мы очень отстали в методологии сейсмобезопасного строительства (прямой сферы ответственности Минстроя России) от развитых стран мира.

Что пытаются предотвратить ученые, разрабатывающие карты ОСР? Чем чреват лоббизм региональных строительных магнатов, требующих формального понижения сейсмоопасности своих территорий в ущерб всей стране?

26 лет назад на Сахалине произошло одно из самых разрушительных землетрясений . Север Сахалина традиционно считался зоной меньшей сейсмоактивности, чем южная часть острова или Курилы. Дома в Нефтегорске складывались как карточные, строители не рассчитывали на такую катастрофу — из 3197 жителей погибло 2040 человек. Спустя 13 лет был полностью разрушен подземным ударом Бэйчуань — китайцы превратили руины в музей под открытым небом в назидание себе и потомкам.

Мне не довелось пока узнать, что такое совесть девелопера или заместителя начальника управления омываемого финансовыми потоками министерства, — не повезло, видимо. Но что такое совесть ученого, мы знаем по многочисленным примерам недавней истории, начиная с Чернобыльской катастрофы. N.V. Шебалин, заведующий лабораторией сильных землетрясений Института физики РАН, писал после спитакской катастрофы: «Рухнуло все, что прогнило: неоправданно оптимистическая схема сейсмического районирования Армении и намеренно удешевленные конструкции многоэтажных зданий. Свою вину будем нести мы, члены редакционной коллегии Карты сейсмического районирования СССР, допустившие то, что на Кавказе были приняты заниженные оценки сейсмической опасности».

До конца жизни Николай Виссарионович, интеллигент старой закалки, переживал спитакскую трагедию. После нее и начали работы по сейсмокартам ОСР-97. По той же методологии позднее создавали ОСР-2016, используя при расчетах уравнение макросейсмического поля Николая Шебалина. Это история про человеческие жизни.

А бизнес всегда толкует о деньгах — «в портах, постелях, поездах», как утверждал любимец геофизиков Визбор. Ради снижения расходов на 15% он готов пренебречь опасностью — Хаммурапи давно нет, за убивающие людей дома, мосты и плотины головы уже не рубят. Деньги приходят сегодня, люди гибнут после. И это вечная коллизия, она не исчезнет никогда. Управленцы всех уровней обязаны выбирать оптимальный вариант, но они не лоббисты бизнеса. Дай ему волю, он и цемент из раствора изымать начнет в стремлении к прибыли. Регулятор должен сначала думать все же о людях.

В связи с тем, что на все дискуссии по проблеме отмены действия карт ОСР-2016, ведущиеся под эгидой Минстроя, пока попадают исключительно их противники, а научное сообщество практически игнорируется, «Новая газета» изъявляет готовность организовать обсуждение на нейтральной площадке с привлечением главных спикеров конфликтующих сторон. Модерацию дискуссии мы предлагаем поручить независимому ученому в области геофизики, обладающему необходимым инструментарием для оценки мнений и понимающему ситуацию. Он должен быть несомненным авторитетом в сейсмологическом сообществе и обладать незапятнанной репутацией.