Putinism-2021: Repression and sanctions

New portions of repressive laws, next attempts to limit access to social networks. Repressions against Alexei Navalny, his supporters, activists of Open Russia Mikhail Khodorkovsky take place against the background of a deepening economic crisis, rising prices and falling standard of living. So today the Kremlin is preparing for the September elections to the State Duma? What should democratic forces do in this situation? We are discussing with the leader of the Party of People's Freedom, a former Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Mikhail Kasyanov.

Mikhail Sokolov is broadcast.

Video version of the program

Mikhail Sokolov: Today we will discuss the problems of the development of Putinism, repressions, sanctions. And we will discuss with the leader of the Party of People’s Freedom, a former Prime Minister of Russia Mikhail Kasyanov. Alexei Navalny is in the colony, he is unhealthy, his back was quite ill. For a long time they did not let the doctors, did not give any medicines, the complication, as he writes, went to the leg, entire areas lost sensitivity. In addition, he, as supposedly inclined to escape, is not allowed to sleep normally, they wake up every hour at night. The situation, of course, is disgusting. How do you evaluate what is happening with Alexei Navalny now?

Mikhail Kasyanov: I read his letter, which became public, from prison. You correctly said that they woke him, I call it torture simply. I can imagine what pains are when the leg is taken away, the spine is not in order, such strong abuse of human health, not to mention all the processes that were. They are so semi -stable, semi -dramatic, with the mockery of everything and everything, ignoring the international community, ignoring all protests in Russia, public opinion. Now they are still trying to finish him off in prison. These bullying resemble Stalin's times. Wake up every hour, not to give sleep, this was in Stalin's times when people were killed morally, not allowing them to sleep, they knocked out confessions from them. It's just some kind of horror, it’s hard to imagine that in the 21st century such torture can be applied.

Mikhail Sokolov: The versions of all sorts of things that he do not simulate, all such nonsense were launched. We decided to take a comment from the doctor - this is the famous neurosurgeon Alexei Kashcheev, who got acquainted with the messages of Navalny’s lawyers and commented.

Your browser does not support HTML5

The diagnosis of Navalny's neurosurgeon

Alexei Kashcheev: Judging by the fact that he reports his health, the problem is that he has pain in the lower back, which is given in the leg, cause numbness in his leg, difficulties when supporting the leg. This is a neurological symptoms, which can correspond to many diseases, but the most private and banal of them, especially taking into account the acute principle, is the hernia of the disk. By what he describes, it is most likely that the hernia of the disk at the level of L4 - L5, between 4 and 5 lumbar vertebrae .... Operation may be required.

Mikhail Sokolov: In general, as the surgeon said, it can go after studying the situation, MRI and other things, about the urgent operation. You need to take measures. By the way, the European Union today urged Alexei Navalny again.

Mikhail Kasyanov: This is not new information that his back hurts. I talked to him on the video in November, when he was in Germany. He was in a healthy state of mind, normally led the conversation, but said that the bottom did not work for me. It was evident in the photo when he barely descends from the stairs, holding on to the railing. It is clear that after the poisoning he did not restore all the nerve endings, all the processes that the normal person function in.

Mikhail Sokolov: The feeling is that the authorities behave with him as a hostage: the more they require to free, the worse his position, more problems with treatment. Do you think there is an element of personal revenge Vladimir Putin, for the film, for example, about the palace?

Mikhail Kasyanov: It seems to me that there is such a general mood, of course. All his entourage is afraid to make a relief, God forbid, to show loyalty in extensions in relation to the regime that contains Alexei. The fact that he, of course, is the factor of information surge in society is so. He became a trigger, a trigger, people took to the streets, new people took to the streets, those who never went out. Because such madness, rudeness, abuse of fate of man, few expected in modern Russia.

Of course, the authorities, they hold the line of ignoring the existence of Navalny. It is punished, finished off, and at the same time they still hold a policy of ignoring. This will not work in the 21st century, because the Internet has not yet been disconnected. More and more people no longer watch television, but watch the Internet, receive information from there, their judgments, conclusions, based on this information, truthful information, and not propaganda programs that we see on television channels.

Mikhail Sokolov: They behave quite impudently, I would say. For example, Mr. Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, argues that if they wake up Navalny every hour, then this is a manifestation of discipline in a correctional institution. As always, they do something with them with blacks, and here, it turns out, prisons in other countries are even more cruel than in Russia. He also gave the answer to the appeal of Navalny Julia's wife is also quite cynical.

Your browser does not support HTML5

Dmitry Peskov about the requirements of Julia Navalny

Mikhail Sokolov: By the way, he does not believe that the situation is similar to the situation with Sergey Magnitsky, who died in prison. How do these people think? We have such a situation now that fate plays with a person, today you are some kind of tycoon, and tomorrow you are sitting. The official, why is he so psychologically confident that something like this will not happen to him?

Mikhail Kasyanov: I think that officials think so and are afraid of it. The military believe that they are executing an order, all this is forgiven for them. This is wrong. Even in the Constitution, it is written that the execution of an illegal order - you are responsible completely for this. When they give such orders to beat the innocent people on the street, to give a club on the head - this is the execution of an illegal order. For this, people should be punished, at least lose their jobs. And if there are any consequences, of course, indulge in the court. All these military and police believe, since they are executing an order, it means that they are freed from everything, they can do anything.

Mikhail Sokolov: Is this a mistake?

Mikhail Kasyanov: Of course, a mistake. They think: they pay money, and well, we are ready to squeeze, set ourselves that these are very terrible people, beat them, we will contrary to the law, contrary to the constitution to comply with the order, because the boss who gave the order answers. This is an incorrect interpretation, these people, of course, will be punished in the future.

Mikhail Sokolov: I think, people write about this that a public outcry is what can protect the same Alexei Navalny, other political prisoners. In your opinion, how to lead the campaign in their protection? To appeal to the mercy of the owner of the Kremlin or to demand any sanctions from abroad?

Mikhail Kasyanov: There are different approaches. The community of human rights - of course, apply any ways to soften the fate of a political prisoner, so ask, demand, anything you want. Everything is available for human rights activists, they can do, as they consider necessary, the main thing is to soften the fate of a political prisoner.

Mikhail Sokolov: Write: "Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, pay attention"?

Mikhail Kasyanov: They can write anything. But politicians and civilians, cultural figures, I think, should not step on their conscience, to people whom they simply do not respect, to kneel, let it be in writing, beg something to do. Of course, we must demand. These requirements can be political, can be in the form of strikes, ignoring, non -participation in the affairs of this incomprehensible or understandable terrible state that Putin built for himself. For politicians, it is all the more unacceptable to beg. This is the group of people who are fighting against at least half of the country's population - this is quite obvious from Levada surveys. More than half of the population of Russia does not want this power to continue to rule us.

Mikhail Sokolov: What can make Vladimir Putin? Maybe there is some logic, relatively speaking, is unprofitable that you can explain to him? Something he does harmful, depresses, plants, twists nuts, in response to aggression in the international arena, such activity that irritates neighbors and other countries. Is it possible to explain to him logically that this will lead to such troubles, other troubles? Or from the time when you talked with him, he has changed so mentally that nothing can get him?

Mikhail Kasyanov: He didn’t have changed mentally, I see that he hid it in my time, but now it is clear that he is an officer of the KGB. What we taught at the KGB, we know. Blocking, blackmail, provocations - these are the methods of work that were used then, are used now even at the political level. You see in all Putin’s actions these features that he was taught at the KGB school. He believes, as I imagine that the West can be expelled, the economic benefits from cooperation with Russia will still prevail, sooner or later in the West they are aware of the incorrectness of their moves, the incorrectness of the condemnations of these inhuman actions, various human rights violations that there will be some kind of transaction. That is, they will relate to Russia as a special, special state.

Putin achieves this, he wants the interpretation of democracy, the interpretation of human rights, free elections, and so on his own. But this is recorded in the agreements whose member is the Russian Federation. Putin demands from the West: give me the right to interpret international obligations, international law as I want, as I understand it. We are a special country, we have our own Slavic mentality. We have heard this many times, especially from propagandists. He persists in these misconceptions, believing that sooner or later the West will still give up and go to the following conditions: in the economy we cooperate, in human rights, it is possible to lead in the rest that he is now trying to do this, whether it is an aggressive foreign policy or violations of human rights within the country.

Mikhail Sokolov: He wants to stand on the position of China, who really has not touched the issue of human rights for quite many years. But modern China and modern Russia, from the point of view of the influence of the economy, can now be compared now.

Mikhail Kasyanov: That's the point. China creates 18% of the global gross domestic product. Russia - in my time it was 3.5, now it is 1.7%, that is, our share, our power in the world has fallen almost doubled in 16 years. The structure of the economy since my departure over the past 15 years has worsened much. If earlier the share of raw materials in the structure of the gross domestic product was approximately 12%, now it is about 20. Therefore, we not only did not get off the oil needle, we caught on this needle even deeper. No improvement over the past 15 years has occurred with the Russian economy, we only worsen our positions. We lose our power, our positioning, respect in the world. Not only because of the weakness of the economy, but because of aggressive behavior, not justified by anything, no one can understand why this is being done, what eccentrics are sitting in the Kremlin, why they behave and destroy their country.

Mikhail Sokolov: It is interesting that Joe Biden really gave the first press conference, in what context was Russia?

Your browser does not support HTML5

Biden about relations with China

Mikhail Sokolov: As we understand, the president is not President Putin, but this is the president of China Mr. Si. And Mr. Putin got a mention that people like him spoil the atmosphere.

Mikhail Kasyanov: President Biden demonstrated in his previous interview when he gave tough grades, and now, when he gave tough grades that he puts on the present Russia aside. This is a dangerous player who interferes with time from time to time, but is not a big problem for the United States. All emphasis on growing China. The US produces 25% of the global GDP, China 18 already, the growth rate is on, and we are falling. We turn into gateway in China, and China is trying to catch up with the United States.

Mikhail Sokolov: That is, Russia is a junior ally of China.

Mikhail Kasyanov: Now Lavrov’s last visit has demonstrated that. Already a little humiliating position of our country in the international arena. Yes, we simply turn into some outcasts, into such an insignificant country with all our resources, with all our human capital, economic resources, they are simply bought up.

Mikhail Sokolov: What is the reason for this bureaucratic? Competent people work both in the Central Bank and in economic ministries, some remained even from your times. Monetary policy among many observers does not raise serious questions, however, this degradation is going on.

Mikhail Kasyanov: If these people were not there, then we would already have an economic collapse. Thank God they keep the results of the reforms that my government pursued, a very responsible policy of credit-money, tax and budgetary continues to carry out. Despite all the requirements to increase expenses, to switch them to other goals, nevertheless, the overall design is supported. The question is different, what is now being unwinded by the achievements that were made in the early 2000s. Tax reform is destroyed, nothing positive has happened so that you can abandon a flat scale for all taxpayers or an increase in VAT. Excise taxes increase disproportionate inflation. Different fees increase, the retirement age is increased. If we continued economic growth, and it stopped in 2008, we would double the GDP.

Mikhail Sokolov: That is, 12 years without growth.

Mikhail Kasyanov: If the world has 3%on average, we grew 1.5%, that is, we have lagged behind 12 years, and the standard of living of the population has been falling for 7 years in a row, the standard of living, real incomes of the population has already decreased by 16%. This year the same thing continues. There is no signal, at the end of the tunnel from the point of view of economic development, because there is no change in power, because there is no real policy that would be based on objective things, and not on what the authorities want.

Mikhail Sokolov: What do the authorities want? They seem to just want to survive this difficult time, a pandemic. In America, people were paid directly to stabilize the economy, and in Russia where they spend money of the same stabilization, backup fund?

Mikhail Kasyanov: In principle, that the bosses want - so that the mastered model of the functioning of the economy, as I call it, “capitalism for friends”, so that it remains. This is due to high oil prices. All oil, gas companies saddled and sit on these pipes and swing. They call this stability, "capitalism for friends", we have mastered the model so that everything would be so.

Mikhail Sokolov: And we will give it to children and grandchildren.

Mikhail Kasyanov: Everything else they say about digitalization, high technologies are all the chatter is simple. We live on the remnants of space technologies, something is still being done there, the institutions work, thank God that this important topic is not thrown, although the quality there is not very high.

Mikhail Sokolov: We have heard about the works of Rogozin.

Mikhail Kasyanov: The question is not in it, the question is in people. Nothing else is done, no processing industry, entrepreneurship is not growing. Now about pandemia. The features of the economic situation are terrible - with falling GDP taxes and fees are growing, these are opposite things. During the pandemic, the number of small and medium -sized enterprises has decreased, sharply reduced. The component in the structure of GDP of small and medium -sized businesses has become void, less than 10%. She was never high, in my time in 2004–5 there was 18%, because there was a prospect, it was believed that the tax regime would be stable, the authorities would not rot them, they would not torment the audit. They introduced control over the minimization of inspections and so on. Now everything has fallen, people throw their small enterprises. In the pandemic, Putin did not reach the salvation of people, in excess mortality we are ahead of the planet, last year 300 thousand. Moscow recognized that 95% of excess mortality is because of Covid. I think that the regions are even worse, I have no data.

Mikhail Sokolov: It seems that no one seems to be data by regions, since many regions, judging by the opinion of statistics, are falsify.

Mikhail Kasyanov: Neither saved people, nor saved the economy. The level of economy support, which was less than any European country. You are talking correctly about America where you gave out money, look at the growth rate, now there is 6% of GDP growth, and we have a decline of 3% the quarter to the quarter. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank has already recognized that Russia will be released only by the end of 2022 to the level of 2019, and the level of 2019 is the level of 2010. Our share in the world has fallen to 1.7%, while other countries are growing, China is now reaching 6% of growth again.

Mikhail Sokolov: I would have been worried about the problem associated with vaccination, such as the noise around three vaccines, a lot of it is sent abroad, terribly advertised, telling that it is discriminated, and the number of people who are vaccinated is about the same as in the lagging countries of Europe.

Mikhail Kasyanov: Less, there are 4%, and we have three percent.

Mikhail Sokolov: This is an economic factor, except for health.

Mikhail Kasyanov: This is the mobility of people, the ability to work in all areas, the restoration of everything. They say that our best vaccine in the world, I am sure that the "satellite" is a good vaccine, Hungary registered, now Germany says that it is necessary to see seriously, register, Slovakia registered, the Czech Republic is trying to watch. This means that the material itself is not bad, our virologists have always been good, in Soviet times they did important things in order to save the population from infectious diseases. But how this happened, distrust was born when they announced at the second stage that we are starting vaccination, the world says: you have gone crazy, this is impossible, you have not even done tough vaccination to 20 thousand people, but it all started. Immediately distrust went. Now we have finished, thank God, the third stage, the indicators are normal, everyone admits that everything is fine, but the negative remains. This is a distrust that has been formed, and the population is now, nothing is done to convince people.

Mikhail Sokolov: It turns out so when the west is criticized by vaccines, that they are bad there, here are bad, people probably draw conclusions that if there are bad ones, then ours are even worse. Propaganda cannot cope with this.

Mikhail Kasyanov: Putin still has a high level of trust among the part of the population, the same 40%probably, even knowing this, could make a vaccine before the camera. We do not know whether he did or did not, they say that he has now vaccinated. Could make in front of the camera how all the leaders of foreign countries do.

Mikhail Sokolov: He has a chance to listen to you and after two weeks to publicly inject the second dose.

Mikhail Kasyanov: Then this part of the population, who loves Putin and believes him, they are at least spaced - this will be an improvement in the general situation in the country. Let's see how he will behave.

Mikhail Sokolov: I saw the fresh news of the economic about the debts of the Russians that they grew up. The ratio of payments on credit total income is up to 12%, that this is a maximum for all the time of measurements over the past 8 years. What does it mean?

Mikhail Kasyanov: This means that the figure is not yet critical, in other countries it is more. The question is that we have the income of the population - this means that people simply survive at the expense of loans in banks. This means that the deterioration of the general condition of the banking system, lack of demand, demand is a source of economic growth. That is, people do not buy as they would buy if the situation was normal. There is no investment - this is the first, which means that there is no second important source - consumer demand, people simply survive. Yes, there are mortgage factors there, they have significantly influenced. People believe: we take the situation, grab it, and there whatever happens, we somehow figure it out. Then they are in debt to the banks. This is another factor in the future discontent. Like deceived equity holders, and it will be so. I'm not talking about the increase in food prices.

Mikhail Sokolov: And what is happening with food?

Mikhail Kasyanov: Manual Directorate.

Mikhail Sokolov: I am always afraid when they promise to adjust prices - this means that prices will rise.

Mikhail Kasyanov: Definitely. I think by September there will be a terrible situation.

Mikhail Sokolov: They must also hold the elections in September, and you say a terrible situation.

Mikhail Kasyanov: That's the point, whether they will be able to keep until September to hold the elections. In addition to food, a gasoline crisis is approaching. In just two months, retail prices for gasoline increased by 3%, and wholesale by 20%. Retail is regulated manually, and wholesale are not regulated. Now this gap is 10 times to collapse.

Mikhail Sokolov: Maybe they will be kept by force before the elections, and then everything will fly up?

Mikhail Kasyanov: The gas station can not work without earning anything. Now they will manually regulate prices, and wholesale will try to regulate. This means that all the usual commodity relations in the country are more and more. This means that the entire market breaks, this means that the crisis is approaching.

Mikhail Sokolov: That is, shortages will arise or just some explosions?

Mikhail Kasyanov: There will be price explosions, if they press, then there can be shortages. In the Far East there was a shortage of these months.

Mikhail Sokolov: That is, the situation is not very good. And then there are a lot of interesting messages about the sanctions. Faynenshl Times today reports that American supporters want to punish Putin and his supporters for the poisoning and persecution of Alexei Navalny, and even for interfering in American elections, and the other is a group of democrats who want, on the one hand, sanctions of effective, but to avoid negative consequences for their own economy. Allegedly, the decision should be made until June. Experts say that the expectation of sanctions hits the rate of the ruble, and added to the ruble to the ruble for 4%. Do you think this factor of expectations is?

Mikhail Kasyanov: There is a factor of expectations, it is primarily associated with those possible sanctions that can be applied in connection with the use of chemical weapons. The fact that they can be applied in the very near future is the ban on the purchase of Russian debt obligations, this means that American investors, I recall that the internal borrowing of the Ministry of Finance, financing the budget deficit, 30% of this market are foreigners, of which 80% are Americans, another 10% are English.

Mikhail Sokolov: If there are sanctions both against the new and the old OFZ issues, then what will happen?

Mikhail Kasyanov: If against new ones, this is trouble. This means that the State Bank will buy OFZ. Where will the State Bank take money? The Central Bank will print and distribute. This means an increase in inflation. This is the path that is most likely this year. If these sanctions are affected by the recommendation - sell all the papers that you have, which is already happening, why you have fallen, because American funds began to sell Russian papers. Everything, there is no substitution. Then it will be even worse, there will be no external borrowing, about once a year, three dollars of the Ministry of Finance occupies a Eurobonds abroad, there will be no current financing of deficit in the domestic market, in the OFZ market. This means that we will be in a closed circle: we print, we immediately distribute ourselves, print again. Since the population is not in an excited state, everyone is accustomed to endure, the last year is especially, so it will develop a little slowly. But if manual control is applied by a larger number of goods, then all this together will lead to the end of the year to problems. Economic problems accumulate one by one, and they are obvious. Correctly you said, the system liberals that remained, they just remember 1998, many of them worked with me, remember how we pulled out the country from the crisis, of course, they help Putin save the country from collapse. They do not save the country, they save his model of capitalism for his friends.

Mikhail Sokolov: There is still one option of sanctions - this is a complete or partial shutdown of the banking Russia system from SWIFT. The partial option, suppose, will turn off the state -owned banks. What will happen then?

Mikhail Kasyanov: This is a serious thing, but it acts more on the senior middle class, people who conduct some calculations. Of course, it is still connected with trade. Trade will be smoothly transferred to the euro, some will be other forms. It will be big by the blow, it will be a blow to people. I think that SWIFT will not be imposed on SWIFT. We have minimal trade relations with America, the ban on trade relations affects European companies, which can also fall under sanctions if they cooperate with sanctions enterprises that are under this pressure. Therefore, all this is very much tied. I think that the issue of duty will be sensitive if the Americans decide to ban on the purchase of new Russian debt obligations.

Mikhail Sokolov: An interesting story around the Northern Stream. Mr. Blinken was in Europe, said something. By the way, the Russian authorities also promise this year this year to complete the whole thing.

Your browser does not support HTML5

Biginen about the construction of the northern stream-2

Mikhail Sokolov: Indeed, the situation is changing in comparison with Trump times, but nevertheless, it is about the possibility of sanctions to those who will participate in the completion of the Northern Stream. What is your forecast, this gas pipeline will be completed, which is harmful to the same Ukraine, frankly, Americans believe that the European market is also?

Mikhail Kasyanov: “Northern Stream - 2” is a question of Ukraine, the question of whether the flow from the gas transportation system of Ukraine from Russia to Europe for “Northern Stream 2” will be switched. Therefore, this is an exclusively blow to Ukraine. There is nothing to pump into the pipe, all the pipes are already half empty, there are not enough production volumes to fill all existing gas transportation systems for export. "Northern Stream - 2", Putin does not hide it, is built in order to neutralize Ukraine. Therefore, the dispute goes between America and Germany. Germany says that we want to control the political process, this is our lever in Putin. Американцы говорят: подпишите нам декларацию, что вы не будете переключать, тогда мы снимем санкции. Это спор между двумя державами. В какой форме немцы это отрегулируют, непонятно, уже вложены десятки миллиардов долларов.

Михаил Соколов: Вложены государственные деньги, их освоили компании Ротенбергов, друзей Путина опять. Он может и пустой стоять.

Михаил Касьянов: Но вложены и немецкие деньги. В принципе, конечно, будут стремиться закончить этот проект.

Михаил Соколов: Закончить и пустой будет стоять?

Михаил Касьянов: Будет стоять пустой. Можно сделать заполняемость 25%, там есть специальная директива, как это делается. Вопрос исключительно договоренностей немцев и американцев, связанные с Украиной. Для немцев это еще бизнес, потому что они становятся главными распределителями российского газа в Европе. Для них это большая функция, для этого туда бизнес и шел немецкий, для этого деньги вкладывали, они не хотят терять своих новых позиций. Им на Украину уже плевать, им хочется добиться тех целей, которые в бизнес-проектах они ставили, инвестируя туда миллиарды.

Михаил Соколов: Кстати, раз упомянули Украину, я сегодня посмотрел новости: на территории Украины в результате обстрела погибло четверо, ранено двое украинских военнослужащих. Как-то в последнее время неспокойно в Донбассе. Не будет ли какого-нибудь обострения, тоже такой фактор давления на систему Зеленского, который пока не добился выдающихся успехов в экономике, но какие-то предпринимает демонстративные шаги, то Медведчука обыскивают, то какие-то телеканалы у кума Путина отключают? Не могут взять и попытаться наказать украинцев?

Михаил Касьянов: Я смотрю с точки зрения, нужно ли это Путину. Путину нужны новые победы. Будет ли обострение в Донбассе новой победой? I think not. Конечно, все это рассматривается, перебирается. У нас был Карабах, перепугались до смерти с этим делом.

Михаил Соколов: Победы как-то не получилось, получилась полусдача союзника.

Михаил Касьянов: Давление американцев, серьезное отношение. Вы видите, как формулирует, все говорят – старенький президент, но какую четкую линию он ведет. Тремя жесткими словами одно, другое. Пресс-конференция, которую вы сейчас показывали, понятная линия государства. И в Европе все довольны, и внутри американского истеблишмента все довольны. Понятная линия, никаких нет всплесков ни туда, ни сюда, полная предсказуемость, ясность полная. Вопрос, жесткая позиция по санкциям превалировать будет или более мягкая – это не играет сильно роли, но ситуация более-менее понятна. Конечно, для нынешней российской власти нужно понять, что и как. В Китай съездили, прозондировали, ничего Китай сильно не пообещал: хорошо, будем продолжать работать вместе.

Михаил Соколов: Кредитовать "Роснефть".

Михаил Касьянов: Цены там ниже, чем в Беларуси даже. Текущие цены на газ, который идет в Китай, меньше, чем в Беларуси.

Михаил Соколов: То есть выдающиеся успехи Игоря Ивановича Сечина как менеджера.

Михаил Касьянов: Китай считает, что Сибирь их вотчина, их зона интересов, поэтому он будут продолжать такую работу. Выбор должно сделать российское руководство. Может быть, все-таки демократический Запад, который требует уважать права человека и вести себя достойно, уважать международное право, может, лучше, чем становиться вассалом у восточного гиганта.

Михаил Соколов: Кстати говоря, к восточному гиганту отношение меняется. Впервые Европа начала осуждать нарушения прав человек за много лет. Молчали, молчали, тут выступили.

Михаил Касьянов: Никогда европейцы не трогали, да.

Михаил Соколов: По-моему, со времен Тяньаньмэнь.

Михаил Касьянов: Все эти 30 последние ничего не было, наоборот, всплески, "ура" кричали.

Михаил Соколов: Почему они прозрели?

Михаил Касьянов: Поскольку ценности, которыми они руководствуются, остаются все те же, экономические преимущества фактически все использовали, безусловно, политики не могут просто играть в полный консерватизм, эта тема ушла, вновь либеральные ценности высвечиваются. Сейчас был популизм левый, правый в некоторых странах, сейчас опять вновь превалируют либеральные ценности, переболели.

Михаил Соколов: Хотя интересно, Китай ни на кого не нападал, ничего не аннексировал, наращивал свою мощь, вел себя в каком-то смысле даже лучше, чем Россия на международной арене. И вдруг и к нему тоже интерес появился.

Михаил Касьянов: Трамп был немножко прав в отношении Китая. Потому что после 25 лет переговоров по вступлению Китая в ВТО Китай наконец-то согласился, это еще было при Клинтоне, что он не будет манипулировать курсом национальной валюты. Потому что манипулирование курсом национальной валюты при таком огромном населении, которое не может бунтовать по поводу курса валют, потому что оно не понимает, что это такое, этим курсом национальной валюты они вновь стали манипулировать. На самом деле они стали пользоваться своим преимуществом, раз американцы молчат. Весь баланс торговли был нарушен.

Михаил Соколов: И нарвались на торговую войну. То есть они на торговую войну, а Россия по политическим причинам нарывается все время на какие-то санкции. Образ России сейчас в мире не очень хороший, мягко говоря, а власть все накручивает новые и новые репрессивные законы, ограничения по интернету всякие обсуждаются и проводятся. Я уже не говорю про историческую политику. Путин на днях опять что-то такое про НКВД, что их обижают, высказался, в кино не так показывают. Все, что происходит в России, почему сейчас нельзя было жить, условно говоря, со старыми правилами игры, пришлось именно вроде бы, не видя большого народного недовольства, Навальный приехал, посадили, люди вышли, все вроде закончилось, продолжать закручивать гайки?

Михаил Касьянов: Потому что другого пути нет для проведения этой политики удержания власти – это дальнейшее зажатие. Безусловно, интернет является врагом, разрушающим всю эту мифологию. Когда законы в Конституцию записываются, что нельзя интерпретировать в их понимании историю по-другому, чем они себе представляют, сейчас закон о регулировании просветительства, любая лекция будет согласовываться с властями, возможно, это открытое введение цензуры. Получаешь штамп, что можешь лекцию читать, интерпретировать события Второй мировой войны таким-то образом или нет. Это только удержание людей в неведении. Отключение интернета как форма нераспространения информации – это такие средневековые вещи.

Михаил Соколов: Патрушев: "Цифровые технологии стали применяться для вмешательства в дела суверенных государств". Путин тоже на эту тему: "За незыблемость цифрового суверенитета всех государств". What is it?

Михаил Касьянов: Читайте из этих фраз, что не трогайте нас, мы сами будем пичкать наше население, как хотим. Фактически это упрек на бесконтрольное распространение свободомыслия в мире.

Михаил Соколов: Дальше они будут отключать социальные сети?

Михаил Касьянов: Об этом говорят, они тренировки даже проводят. Они говорят, что Запад будет отключать, на самом деле готовят сами, будет ли это работать, можно ли отключить от мира наш интернет, чтобы внутри варились в своем соку.

Михаил Соколов: Они вместе с этими сетями какие-нибудь банки отключат, прочее начнет сыпаться, как с телеграмом это было.

Михаил Касьянов: Если отключат SWIFT, карта "Мир" только будет в расчете, тогда можно и интернет отключить. Зачем нам от внешнего мира подпитывать недовольство. Все сидят в ипотеках, в долгах, просят: дай, царь, побольше, увеличь на пять копеек пенсию. Как сегодня увеличили социальную пенсию на несколько рублей. У нас сравнивают с уровнем жизни, а уровень жизни, минимальный доход 11 тысяч рублей. Когда провели независимое исследование, оказалось, что минимальный – это 25 рублей. У нас получают меньше 27 тысяч половина населения – это означает, что половина населения в нищете находится. Если брать 11 тысяч минимальный доход – 20 миллионов нищих, а если брать 27 тысяч рублей в месяц доход, то у нас половина страны нищая.

Михаил Соколов: Как в такой ситуации идти на выборы "Единой России", "партии власти", да и Путину? Я не знаю, хочет ли возглавлять ее список, все равно будет с ней ассоциироваться.

Михаил Касьянов: Сейчас новая Центральная избирательная комиссия образовалась во главе с Эллой Памфиловой. Прислали мне как главе партии ПАРНАС приглашение. Узнаем в ЦИКе, что за мероприятие, что там будет. Говорят, что только первые лица должны прийти, никаких вопросов задавать не предусматривает регламент, выступлений не будет. Вопрос у меня: для чего я должен туда идти? Сидеть рядом с Зюгановым, с Прилепиным, который кичится, что он в Донбассе воевал, с кем-то еще. Кому нужна эта картинка? Им для своих будущих пропагандистских историй, которые они будут рассказывать очень скоро, уже начинается подготовка к выборам.

Свободного доступа к выборам нет. Нашу партию не пускают без сбора подписей. Они же приняли в 2015 году закон, который запрещает нам теперь без сбора подписей участвовать в выборах, придумали всякие уловки.

Михаил Соколов: Что вы решили на съезде, как участвовать в выборах?

Михаил Касьянов: Мы решили так, что еще месяц-полтора есть возможность консолидации, у нас есть только "Яблоко" и группа Навального. Группа Навального, те, кто занимается политикой, участвуют в выборах, сейчас не активничают, хотя мы с ними контакт держим. Сейчас вопрос в том, что Алексей в беде, все вокруг этого.

Михаил Соколов: Вот они митинг готовят на полмиллиона человек.

Михаил Касьянов: Задача главная освободить его, совершенно очевидная, правильная задача. Но это не политическая вещь, сейчас уже правозащитная. Второе – это "Яблоко". "Яблоко" не желает ни с кем объединяться.

Михаил Соколов: Но они без подписей могут выдвигать.

Михаил Касьянов: Они будут под контролем, как и любая другая партия кремлевская, "Яблоко" так же будет сверяться с администрацией, кого можно, а кого нельзя.

Михаил Соколов: Еще есть "умное голосование" Алексея Навального. В списке хорошие люди или вредные для "Единой России" люди на мажоритарных округах.

Михаил Касьянов: "Умное голосование" – это не политика, "умное голосование" – это технология, целью которой является нанесение удара по "Единой России", то есть по власти. Поэтому авторы "умного голосования", я им это говорил с момента, когда они это родили в 2018 году, что это не политика. Вы глубоко ошибаетесь, это никакой не урон власти – это укус комара. Все эти люди во всех этих партиях будут согласованы в администрации, дадут клятву, что они будут вести себя правильно. Как они называются – коммунисты, единороссы, "Справедливая Россия" – это все одно и то же.

Михаил Соколов: Хорошо, поругали, а что делать, что вы решили с "умным голосованием", какое-то другое голосование?

Михаил Касьянов: Мы решили, что мы выберем всех тех людей, независимые люди могут выдвинуться или достойные люди могут даже в какую-то партию попасть, мы составим такой список людей, которым можно доверять. Не механистически, что больше набирает и так далее, а просто человеку можно доверять. В "Яблоке" есть неплохие люди, уважаемые люди в разных регионах, могут попасть в другие партии люди, которым можно доверять, сказать, что мы их поддержим. Это будет, конечно, не длинный список по всей стране, поскольку достойных людей будет не много выдвигаться на эти выборы, но список такой будет.

Михаил Соколов: Просто есть еще мысль, что некоторым надо было бы себя поберечь и на митинги не ходить. Что вы про это думаете?

Михаил Касьянов: Я вообще не призываю на несанкционированные митинги, потому что это риски. Мы знаем, сколько людей уже проблемы получили. Я надеюсь, что сейчас все-таки будут сняты ограничения, по Москве обещают, что в мае уже снимут.

Михаил Соколов: Парад надо проводить?

Михаил Касьянов: Я надеюсь, что после парада можно будет восстановить активность на улицах, можно проводить митинги в защиту Навального, в защиту Конституции, части Конституции, которая представляет ценности, конечно, за свободные выборы. У нас забрали главный инструмент государственного строительства – это выборы, формирование политического курса, который хотят граждане, по итогам –формирование власти. Это у нас узурпировали, за это надо бороться.

Михаил Соколов: У нас теперь опрос, мы все-таки вернемся к теме санкций, что народ про них думает.

Your browser does not support HTML5

Будут ли введены санкции Запада за отравление и арест Навального?

Михаил Соколов: Что скажете о мнении народном, настроении?

Михаил Касьянов: Несмотря на то что нам все равно, будут санкции или не будут, проскакивают нотки такие, что власти российские все эти проблемы переложат на нас, на простых граждан. This is so.

Вы знаете, что есть "контрсанкции", которые были введены в отместку за санкции, которые были введены за агрессию в Донбассе. До сих пор это функционирует, закрыт импорт, который мог бы заполнить в том числе полки магазинов продуктовые, снизил бы общие цены на продукты питания, то же самое связано с медикаментами. Цены на медикаменты выросли на 10%, на продовольствие выросли на 20%, все это будет продолжаться. Поэтому перекладывание проблем на плечи граждан – это желание нынешних властей. Они считают, что Путин и страна – это одно и то же. Санкции против его окружения – это санкции против любого другого человека. И они это демонстрируют в жизни.