The concentration of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine has been maximum over the past six years. This conclusion was reached by analysts from the Conflict Intelligence Team investigation based on open data analysis.
As the investigators have established, motorized rifle, artillery, landing and, most likely, tank units have moved to the border in recent weeks. Using the GDEVAGON service, which allows you to track the routes of railway wagons by numbers, they managed to establish some destination points - these are Crimea and the surroundings of Voronezh.
Among the transferred parts are the 76th Airborne Forces division from Pskov, as well as the 74th motorized rifle brigade from Kemerovo. According to CIT, such large -scale transfer of forces from remote regions cannot be explained by local exercises, as the Russian authorities do , only strategic. At the same time, the following strategic maneuvers of the West 2021 should begin in September, that is, only five months later.
CIT notes that data from open sources to evaluate the total number of forces transferred to the borders of Ukraine is not yet enough and expect that it will be possible to give assessments after the final points of arrival of the equipment are known. “However, now we can say that we have not seen such a concentration of troops since the hot phase of the war in Ukraine in 2014-2015,” the investigators concluded.
At the same time, CIT emphasizes that they do not yet see the signs that Russian troops are preparing directly for the invasion of Ukraine. According to the investigators, by its actions, Moscow plans only to “intimidate the Ukrainian leadership, as well as check the strength of the new American administration.”