Translated material
"They turn up again with a weapon." Social networks on the preparation of war in the Donbass
There are no less than a week of news about the transfer of Russian troops to the border with Ukraine and, as a result, rumors about the imminent escalation of a military conflict in the Donbass.
Military observer Pavel Felgenhauer speaks of the probability of war in an interview with Rosbalt :
- What are the facts?
- War in a month.
- Are you sure?
- Of course not. But in early May, everything will be ready. The decision has been made. There are several reasons for this: the closure of pro -Russian television channels in Ukraine, the threat of arrest and trial over Viktor Medvedchuk, the arrest of Navalny, Biden called Putin a killer ... Threats are growing, and swiftly. Much is not discussed in the open press, but we observe very bad signs.
He, in fact, is a well-known military analyst, and not a flooding "political scientist", so there is a reason for nervous.
But he, of course, is careful - perhaps it does not mean. Nevertheless, the internal state of the Russian statehood is such that a war may seem like a way to someone. There is no good news in this, except that the mode may end there - but too expensive.
If only there was no war! - Russians said, directing tanks to Ukraine, Georgia and other countries.
- Siberian (@siberianman) April 7, 2021
Tereshkova reports that he receives from ordinary citizens of Russia thousands of letters a day with a request to Putin to attack Ukraine ..
- Chisinau junta (@hunta_chisinau) April 7, 2021
!URGENTLY! The Union of Donbass volunteers calls the former participants in the war in the Donbass, and others, Veteranov, gaining urgently who wanted to fight again in Ukraine. They promise a “salary” in 150 tr/month. Puff meat is getting more expensive. But the king will not pay, but again pensioners
- Sergey Gulyaev (@gulyaev_s) April 4, 2021
In some incomprehensible way, "exacerbations in the Donbass" always coincide in time with the Kremlin "exercises" at the borders of Ukraine. It is very strange, right?
- Pan Doktor (@pan_dok) April 5, 2021
This is a paradox, but Putin wants to attack Ukraine under the pretext of protecting some Russians who have more rights and freedoms in Ukraine than in his Russia ..
- Romanian hundred 🇷🇴🇪🇺 (@latiniano) April 7, 2021
I'm scared. It is scary that I am becoming an accomplice in a big crime. There is no war with Ukraine! Although that it’s the point of screaming here ...
- I, the widow of my cat (@olga_boot) April 5, 2021
Putin, hands away from Ukraine!
- Revolutionary thoughts (@vvp2_0) April 7, 2021
News on NTV in such a fighting tone, as if Ukraine had already declared war. The video sequence consists of continuous columns of military equipment transferred by both sides, drones cut over the entire ether.
Propaganda again pumps up the population with hatred for Ukraine. Will the Russians again lead to this like in 2014?
- Right Now (@r1ght_now) April 4, 2021
Have you seen pictures with military equipment traveling to the borders of Ukraine? This is the teachers of the Russian language with desks and textbooks.
Why is there so many conversations around the possible full -scale renewal of hostilities in Ukraine? Because the awareness of the insolubleness of the water problem of Crimea without Ukraine coincided in time (which they understood well in the USSR - therefore, they attached the peninsula to Ukraine) and measures to neutralize pro -Russian information resources and politicians in Kyiv with the coming to power of Biden, in which Ukraine involves in partnership with the United States and its strengthening look likely.
Two main versions are Russia's attack on Ukraine and the attack of Ukraine on the Ordlo.
In the first case, the minimum task is assumed - water for Crimea, the maximum task is the destruction of Ukrainian statehood independent of Russia and Novorossiya, including Transnistria.
In the second case, the minimum program is a reduction in broken territories, the maximum program is their return to Ukraine.
By the standards of the Second World War, the goals of Russia can be achieved in a scale of at least a front -line operation, the goals of Ukraine - army.
At the moment, there is no information about the deployment of any of the parties on a scale sufficient to implement the tasks. But the exercises planned by Russia allow us to ensure deployment on such a scale.
Will there be an exacerbation/offensive in the near future? Not sure. They talk too much about this, rattling too loudly with a weapon, too demonstratively pulling people and equipment on both sides. Practice shows that such injection has a political context rather, and the more often the war about the war speak-the less its probability. Which does not mean that it is not necessary to prepare for it. You need to prepare. But it is also worthwhile to eat great hopes that the "ice has started" and now in one fell swoop we will cut this knot. There are such moods - the Donetsk military argue inspiredly, we will reach our administrative borders this spring or already immediately to the Dnieper. In my opinion, the coming days, the Nedeles of a big war, still do not wait. It will happen later and for the majority unexpectedly.
Here's what the representatives of Conflict Intelligence Team say on The Insider :
At the moment, we are not observing the obvious signs of preparation directly for the invasion of Ukraine (for example, Russian columns at the very border like that what British journalist Sean Walker saw in August 2014). The information available to us allows you to first agree with the conclusions of various political scientists that the goal of transferring is to intimidate the Ukrainian leadership (recently taking a number of steps against persons and organizations that are considered “agents of influence” of Russia in Ukraine), as well as “check for strength” a new American administration.
"Conflict Intelligence Team said that the concentration of Russian troops in the Voronezh region near the borders of Ukraine is the maximum since 2015, but so far there are no signs that the invasion is being prepared." It’s still going to bomb Voronezh.
- PERZIAN ROSISI (@Kermlinrussia) April 7, 2021
There are many concerns on the start of a new round of war with Ukraine. The situation is alarming, but I think that this is just an escalation, since under a full -fledged war Putin can very much fly - both victims and shelling of the territory of the Russian Federation (for the first time in almost 80 years). But vigilance cannot be lost
- Vladimir Milov (@v_milov) April 3, 2021
Putin has three basic serious reasons for the war or at least for pressure on Ukraine, which can be shuffled in any order in terms of priority:
- the actual end of the Minsk process, including the end of the shadow agreements with the leadership of Ukraine, as can be seen from the fate of Medvedchuk and his assets and the cessation of a truce on the border with the Ordlo;
- Question of Crimean water;
- The issue of domestic political mobilization on the 2014 model, that is, the opposition’s support and mass protests is hope to successfully replace the support of the regime due to the fact that the regime has entered into an external fight beyond the territory.
The war here is not required, but you can try to put pressure on Ukraine and its Western partners to achieve a solution to at least part of the problems. The simplest and most logical options are to achieve messages from Kyiv in relation to Ordlo and get the Dnieper water back to the Crimean Canal.
If you fight (nothing turns out to be achieved in negotiations (including secret ones), they felt a slack, it was overwhelmed by live ambitions), that is, again, several options: again:
“Small” - to move the front line from Donetsk and Gorlovka, gain control of the Donetsk airport, for which you need to take Avdeevka, and other territories around Donetsk. It will cost one and a half thousand lives (as in Debaltseve), but technologically fulfilled in a couple of weeks and forces masking under the troops of the Ordlo and without a large international reaction.
“Medium” - to realize the long -term promises of the leaders of the Ordlo “to return the territories of the republics occupied by Kiev”, that is, to enter the borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions or at least take those territories where the “referendum” was carried out in 2014. This is not possible without the direct intervention of the Russian army, it will cost at least three to five thousand lives and will inevitably cause new sanctions.
- "Big" - a nomination of a group from Crimea in order to capture the channel route, the defeat of the Podkrymsky group of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces. Further, it is possible either an agreement on the mutual use of the channel, or the “abandonment of the contingent of the troops” for its use. It will cost approximately 300-500 lives of the Russian military. The international effect will be loud, but its result will depend on the final agreements on the fate of the channel.
- “Little Regional” - a large -scale offensive of Russian groups from Crimea and Ordlo, with the aim of temporary or permanent occupation of Ukrainian territories along the Azov coast. There will definitely be a major international effect, including with the termination of the Northern Stream and the stop of many other connections and contacts.
But purely technically, all these options are possible (as well as landing on the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine). And actually they will now be the main Russian "arguments" in so far diplomatic and secret negotiations. The option that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to stop and discard a serious offensive with the participation of the Russian troops I am seriously (with all due respect to the Ukrainian military). Too inconspicuous level of weapons and the number of troops. If only the "troops of Ordlo" (and other proxies of the Russian army) are involved, then, probably, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will hold them back.
But at the same time, I think and I hope that with a probability of 70-80%, the case will end with a rattle of weapon and information campaign.
There are three main reasons why Putin will not stop.
1. His regime is not able to exist in peaceful conditions for a long time. Without the image of the enemy, the military Urapatriotic Viagra Rating of power quickly falls. Even fake elections are becoming problematic to hold. The regime needs constant "small victorious wars" to keep the population in a state of "constant amazement", patriotic intoxication.
Soon the elections to the State Duma, there is a cruel reprisal against Navalny. The war will write off everything. And from reprisals against the opposition, distraction and elections will help to successfully conduct.
2. Ukraine is the idea of a free demon. He dreams of becoming the ancestor of the Third Reich (after Romanovsky and Soviet). And what is this Russian Empire without Ukraine? So, not a Reich, but a fake. Therefore, while Putin is in power, he will not lag behind Ukraine, he will alternate manipulative and violent attempts to capture it.
3. Putin wants to immediately show Biden his luminous and strength. It's like in prison. A new authority (Biden) is being developed into the camera. The old-lord-examining (Putin) to put himself in front of the newcomer, whom he is afraid, is trying to defiantly beat some other, not such a cool convict. Ukraine may be in the role of an object of demonstration of power.
Another question is whether this round of aggression will be large -scale, as some military experts predict. I think no. The fact is that the Putin regime will not economically withstand a big war and the inevitable in this case unprecedented American and European sanctions.
The began military aggravation is similar to the military blackmail of Zelensky and partly Biden, whom Putin considers weaklings. If he immediately receives a hard rebuff, a new large -scale invasion will not take place.
In general, while the situation is stable, but with a pronounced trend in one direction. In the language of propaganda, this is called "game by muscles", and the first violin here plays just the Kremlin.
Technically, everything can end with pieces of iron. But actually speaking, in such circumstances, risks become less predictable and controlled.
The only reason that the Kremlin can intervene and introduce troops to the Donbass is an argument on the protection of Russian citizens, since the distribution of passports has created Enclave in the Donbass, where about 350 thousand newly -made Russian citizens have already lived. But the hardener is that, as with the Crimea, this is a purely internal explanation - the distribution of passports along with citizenship is not particularly recognized by anyone.
In general, while everything goes in the plot of Karabakh, but no one can say whether a breakdown in direct clashes will occur.
It will also be extremely difficult to evaluate the chances of such a clash now, although it will be extremely difficult to “sell” such a war to the Russian population. Now is not 14 years old, and at least one of the five key commandments of Sun Tzu (which, in fact, are the necessary conditions for achieving success) - about the mandatory unity of power and the people in the war - today is impossible. To rafting around Putin, those who wish are somehow not visible.
In connection with events known as the concentration of troops on the border with Ukraine. You do not need to be a specialist in the theory of international relations in order to know that such events can end with wars, even if no one is striving for this. It’s scary to even wonder how much the life of most people in Russia will become worse if this happens. But about one person, Putin, we can say with confidence: nothing bad. It will, as now, sit in his luxurious bunker, eat tasty and healthy foods for free, relax in Siberia in nature. Often I hear: why do we have democracy, tried - it didn’t work, the people are not suitable, etc. I won’t argue, you don’t want to. But here, against irresponsible rule, when a narrow group in power does not get worse if its actions lead to a deterioration in the position of the people, it is worthwhile to act. This, on the present days, is not negative, but the most positive agenda.
Probably, now in the Biden administration they are praying to drag Russia into a war in Ukraine.
As in 1979 Carter and Brzezinsky prayed to drag the USSR into a war in Afghanistan.
To make this the beginning of the end of today's Russia.
And then after two or three years (maybe faster)-February, or restructuring.
The real radical opposition person must now be for the war of Russia and Ukraine, like Lenin and the Bolsheviks in 1914 (“The weakest link of imperialism will collapse first”).
And many, it seems, are ready to "drag on", from simple bloggers to members of the parliament.
Donbass is already shouting that he wants to be part of Russia. Hear already. Oh, you are up there. We will support.
- Iszeli (@snegnayada) April 6, 2021
The President of Ukraine, with the approval of the American hosts, is preparing for a large war with Donbass. She will have the most serious consequences. The only way to stop the Russians genocide is to recognize the independence of the DPR and LPR and accept them in Russia.
- Sergey Mironov (@mironov_ru) April 6, 2021
In the last days, the rhetoric of Kyiv is built into a clearly visible and interconnected line. Here it is, five points.
- activation of the topic of Ukraine’s entry into NATO until yesterday’s ridiculous statement of Zelensky, that only through membership in the Alliance Ukraine will solve the problem of Donbass;
- active processing by phone calls of Zelensky Partners in NATO in order to organize the collective condemnation of Russia with its “troops near Ukrainian borders”;
- the requirement to change the Norman format due to the inclusion of the United States and Poland in it;
- rejection of the further use of the city of Minsk as a negotiation site, charges against Belarus;
- Personal attacks on the participants in the contact group, the threat of getting out of it.
Extremely dangerous. In the same way, Saakashvili behaved in 2008, and then first substituted his country, and ultimately betrayed it.
Apparently, the two-year throwing of Zelensky, but how to fulfill the election promise to resolve the conflict in the southeast, came to an end. The choice is made. The choice in favor of the power scenario, covered by demagogy on the impossible of the Minsk agreements, the inconsistency of the DPR and the LPR, as well as the aggressiveness of Russia. And in this choice there is no place for residents of the southeast yet Ukraine.
Ukraine continues to lose the volume of gas transit and, accordingly, money. In this context, an exacerbation in the Donbass pursues, in addition to others, such a goal: to start a war, to draw Russia for at least a day and under this US sauce will force Berlin to abandon the Northern Stream 2. Then in peak seasons without transit through Ukraine to Europe it will be difficult to do.
The Ukrainian dwarf Fuhrer is acutely needed by war in the hope of at least some geshefts and support from the owners. The SP-2 gas pipeline is completed, there are still no vaccines in the country, any initiatives and undertakings are falling apart even before the start, the state in poverty and permanent paralysis.
The only thing that has become good about the 7 years past the Maidan was Russophobia and Nationalism. Here's the indeed order, crowds of ziging Bandera, the "warriors" of the Armed Forces with the Chevrons of the Nazi punishers, the ban on the Russian language and cave Russophobia, as a general result.
Zelensky voiced the ultimate goal of all provocations of the last days - the forced entry of Ukraine into NATO, despite the hot phase of the intra -Ukrainian conflict, or the opinion of the people, including the inhabitants of Donbass.
The tragedy has just occurred, as a result of which the child died. A criminal case has been instituted on the fact of his death, where an attack of the drone of Ukrainian Armed Forces is considered as the main version of the investigation. Do we hear apologies and condolences from the side of official Kyiv? Of course not. On the contrary, the Ukrainian regime declares fakes, runs to complain to its Western patrons and again asks for an alliance.
The statements by the President of Zelensky that only Ukraine’s entry into NATO will stop the war in the DPR and the LPR, and the PDPC, they say, will become a signal of Russia - the “cherry on the cake” of the entire campaign of Kyiv on the escalation and the deliberate exacerbation of the situation in the Donbass. Но подобная позиция не вернет Донецк и Луганск в зону украинского влияния, а наоборот, может способствовать реализации югославского сценария на Украине.
Не хочет Украина никакого другого Донбасса, кроме как побежденного. С выбитыми зубами и на коленях, вымаливающего прощение, и уже невооруженным глазом видно: для сегодняшней Украины - Донбасс приемлем только в качестве военного трофея… ⠀
⠀
Хочу оказаться плохим экспертом, но это означает, что не в апреле, так к уходу Путина (рано или поздно) – войну… Причем самую настоящую, и не стоит недооценивать ситуацию… Девяностотысячная украинская армия, вооруженная евро-американскими «доброжелателями», заведенная истерикой своих фашиствующих историков и жаждой крови – рвется с цепи, как съехавший с катушек пес, и хода ей обратно уже нет.⠀
⠀
Говорят, что донбасское ополчение против такой махины продержится не более трех суток. Скорее всего, это так. And what's next? А дальше - море крови.
В украинских блогах тоже можно найти много воинственного (и часто просто неподцензурного), но преобладает, скорее, другой настрой.
Надо понимать, что в Украине сейчас вообще нет какой-либо риторики, предвосхищающей войну. Никто, обличённый хоть какими-то мало-мальскими полномочиями, не предвкушает возможного конфликта с Россией, не рассказывает, как если что, мы сейчас ррраз, и отвоюем Донбасс и Крым. Нет никакой пропагандистской подготовки к чему-то вроде маленькой победоносной войны.
Есть только очень тревожное ожидание, совсем там с ума сошли северные соседи, или всё-таки есть какие-то аргументы, которые их смогут убедить не начинать войну.
Ну и понятные тоже очень тревожные вопросы: а если вдруг начнётся, сможем ли мы хоть как-то отбиться, и будет ли хоть какая-то помощь от союзников, кроме озабоченности.
То есть если вдруг вы слышите какие-то идеи, что Украина как-то стремится к возможному конфликту – то выкидывайте их сразу. У нас здесь нет ничего, что бы хоть отдалённо напоминало стремление к эскалации.
А если серьёзно, то тут несколько аспектов.
Первый - это Крым (вода). Второй - спасение рядового Райана. Двух. На букву М и на букву П.
Третье - вероятный и давно назревший перенос "Минска" в Варшаву, например. Опять таки, расширение новой платформы с включением в неё США и включение в переговорный процесс темы оккупированного Крыма. Короче, тут для него совсем не радужные перспективы.
А ведь так раньше было хорошо: "мертвый" Минский формат, забытый "в родной гавани" Крым, черно-серая гниющая часть Донбасса... Опять таки, Медведчук так хорошо продвинулся по политической лестнице и своему влиянию в Украине. Окреп, возмужал, каналами обзавёлся...
И тут вдруг все эти завоевания предыдущих лет могут накрыться медным тазом.
...
Будет ли наступление России на Востоке Украины и с Крыма? Anything can be. Но оккультный православный Путин любит все крупные события привязывать к религиозным датам. Поэтому время с Пасхи до 9 мая - самое то. Ведь день Победы для Путина- сродни религии.
Но честно говоря, это все выглядит как игры шизофреника. Его действия никогда нельзя просчитать. Ибо мы исходим из логики, а он - из паралогии.
...
Помните, как он недавно рассказывал российской молодёжи о том, какая древняя Россия? Мол, ещё с 10 века, когда князь Владимир крестил Киевскую Русь. И сразу же про то, что "квази-государства, которые были республиками в СССР, развалили великую Россию в 1991 году".
Короче, записки сумасшедшего.
...
Надо ли нам готовиться к масштабной войне?
Имея под боком ненормального соседа, к ней нужно быть готовым всегда.
С волками жить - по волчьи выть.
-
Ivan Belyaev
Social Networks Editor Radio Liberty