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The dollar rate grew in the first months of the year, refuting the expectations of the overwhelming number of analysts, which predicted its weakening in 2021.

The dollar index, reflecting its course to other six main currencies, jumped in the first quarter by 3.6%, showing the fastest growth over the same period since 2018. As a result, the dollar played a significant part of the fall by 6.8% last year.

Since the beginning of April, the dollar index has decreased by about 1%.

The strengthening of the American currency at the beginning of the year was confused by analysts, who, on the eve of 2021, were almost unanimous in the opinion that a strong restoration of the global economy would provoke the weakening of the dollar. However, now many factors indicate that the United States will overtake other leading economies in terms of GDP growth, and this pushes the dollar up.

An example of changing moods in the market is that Deutsche Bank has already changed its forecast several times. At the end of 2020, the Global Director for the Bank of the Bank, George Saravalos, expected that by the end of the first half of the euro it would grow to $ 1.25, and by the end of 2021 to $ 1.3. In mid -January, he noted that “there is a risk of strengthening the dollar in the coming months,” and at the end of February he said that it was time to sell the dollar again.

“We think that in the summer of the euro will again exceed $ 1.2,” Sa equals believes. “One of the reasons why the market is difficult to predict the further movement of the dollar is that two forces pull it in opposite directions.” Now the euro costs $ 1.19.

“It is not surprising that the dollar has strengthened, taking into account the scale of pessimism [regarding its dynamics] that were laid in the market,” says Jim Livis, investment director M & G Investments . At the beginning of the year, investors had large positions for the fall of the dollar, he adds, and when the situation began not to take shape in their favor, these positions had to be closed, which additionally pushed the course up.

The dynamics of the dollar in relation to some currencies is especially impressive. It grew by 7.2% to Yen, and March has become for her the worst month in almost five years. In March, the euro survived the worst month over the past three years, and Chinese Yuan showed the maximum fall since March 2020.

The opinion of analysts at the end of last year was that the Ultromygsky monetary policy in the United States and the restoration of the global economy as a result of mass vaccination will adversely affect the dollar, since investors and companies would be more interested in other countries, and the demand for the dollar as a protective asset will decrease.

But it seems that this consensus forecast has already been laid in the course. “One of the main risks for this year was that all reports said the same thing - that the dollar will weaken,” said Tim Ash, senior strategist in the developing markets of Bluebay Asset Management .

The rapid growth of inflationary expectations, nourished, including the adoption of a package of stimulating measures by $ 1.9 trillion, led to a jump in the revenues of the US Treasury bonds. This made them relatively attractive for international investors - for example, in markets such as Japanese, Livis says. The influx of capital in the American public debt helped strengthen the dollar.

The further fate of the dollar will largely depend on how the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will respond to the prospects for accelerating inflation. In March, the leaders of the Central Bank made it clear that they were expected to preserve interest rates at least until 2024, but investors are not sure that the Fed will give the economy to overheat. Cotings in the monetary market indicate that its participants expect an increase in the base rate next year.

Zach Pandle, a co -director for global foreign exchange markets, interest rates and developing countries Goldman Sachs , continues to adhere to a pessimistic in relation to the bank's forecast dollar. According to him, the euro at the end of the year will cost about $ 1.28. “I have doubts about the very near future, but we retain a“ bearish ”look, because ultimately I believe that the probability of reducing the dollar in the coming months is higher,” he said.

Calvin Jie prefers to adhere to his forecast, the Citigroup currency strategist, who was waiting for the fall of the dollar by 20% in 2021. “We do not think that the long -term prospects of the dollar have changed,” he said.

If the profitability of the treasury bonds grow because vaccination is faster than expected, economics, world trade and raw materials will be restored faster, the dollar can continue to weaken, Tse believes.

But some experts believe that the US economy will now overtake competitors and this, on the contrary, will strengthen the dollar. In February, Bank of America analysts changed the forecast for the Euro rate at the end of the year from $ 1.25 to $ 1.15, referring to the fuzzy position of the Fed, a large package of fiscal stimulating measures in the United States and problems with vaccination in the European Union.

“We expect that the dollar will gradually strengthen this year against the backdrop of the advanced growth of the United States and the expectations of normalizing the FRS monetary policy,” Bank of America analysts wrote in the March 31 report.

Translated by Mikhail Overchenko

The dollar challenged to analysts