Vladimir Putin with Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan Photo: kremlin.ru

The visit of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to Moscow is, of course, important news. But what makes it sensational is the almost simultaneous presence in the Russian capital of Nikol Pashinyan’s main political opponent, ex-President of Armenia Robert Kocharyan, in the Russian capital.

Coincidence or not, it was last week that the production needs of the second president of Armenia (1998–2008) called him here to participate in a meeting of the board of directors of Sistema, of which he has long served as a member.

Both the government and the opposition

Well, we won’t even dare to assume that what happened a little earlier or a little after this meeting was accidental. I mean the meeting, most likely online, that Mr. Kocharyan had in Moscow with his friend, Vladimir Putin. The fact of this friendly meeting was also confirmed by the latter’s press secretary, Mr. Peskov. And some time later, or rather two days before the negotiations between Prime Minister Pashinyan and President Putin, where both leaders discussed in detail all the problems of Armenian-Russian relations that emerged after last year’s war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, who is to blame and what to do after the defeat in Robert Kocharyan discussed Armenians in an interview with Channel One in the Pozner program.

So each Armenian leader, one current and the other former, had his own Vladimir Vladimirovich as interlocutors in Moscow. Yes, it's funny. Something else is important, if not unprecedented.

For the first time in the entire history of relations between the Russian head of state, and, regardless of his name, with the leaders of post-Soviet states, he meets in Moscow almost simultaneously with both the leader and his political opponent. This has never happened in the 30 years since the collapse of the USSR, I can say this as a careful observer of this process...

Moreover, the Kremlin’s constant foreign policy credo in relations with the CIS countries stated that they always support the legitimate leadership in these countries, avoiding maintaining contacts with their opposition, so that there would be no reproaches for seeking to interfere in the internal affairs of these countries. In a pragmatic presentation, this credo sounded simpler: we are dealing with the government that controls the situation in the country.

In none of the CIS countries (and Georgia and the Baltic countries are not part of the CIS) is there an opposition that, in the Kremlin’s opinion, could claim its attention.

Armenia was the first to receive such an honor.

Like in Ukraine

This can be interpreted in different ways. For example, we can assume that the Putin administration doubts that Pashinyan is in complete control of the situation in the country, and is forced to take into account that part of the responsibility for the situation lies with the Armenian opposition, which Moscow is also forced to reckon with.

Or we can think differently: Putin recognizes that there is a real democracy in Armenia, where power changes as a result of free elections, and he must maintain relations today with the opposition, which could become power tomorrow. This way of posing the question is unusual for the Kremlin. Therefore, most likely, we are observing a situation where, as a result of processes uncontrolled by Moscow and desperately disliked by it, in this case in the form of velvet revolutions, its usual leader found himself in opposition. Yes, perhaps even more desperately, Putin’s personal friend is the main opposition leader in Armenia.

Today, the Russian president has this only in relations with Ukraine, where his friend, Viktor Medvedchuk, is also the main political antagonist of President Vladimir Zelensky. Moreover, Putin and Medvedchuk are godfathers, which in our Palestines will be more important than political closeness.

War and elections

So, while we know little in detail what Pashinyan and Putin agreed on, we only know that the Armenian prime minister considered it necessary, in the protocol part of the meeting accessible to the public, to designate as its main goal the increase in military cooperation with Russia and the desire to find out in detail what the Russian president thinks about the future geopolitics in the South Caucasus. Whether this can be considered a manifestation of Yerevan’s readiness to agree to strengthening Russia’s military-political influence, as the Kremlin would like to see it, is difficult to say... And yet, it seems that this is the case.

When Pashinyan answers in the affirmative to Interfax’s question whether Armenia is going to continue purchasing modern Russian Su-30SM fighters and weapons for them, because this is in accordance with the agreements on the creation of two Russian-Armenian groupings, a military, as well as a regional air defense system, then this is necessary understood as strengthening military cooperation with Moscow, which does not allow the possibility of orientation towards the West, and primarily towards NATO.

Pashinyan’s proposals publicly made to Putin to build another nuclear power plant in Armenia are also important. This should sound like evidence that the current Armenian leadership sees no alternative to close economic cooperation with Russia. In a word, believe me, Vladimir Vladimirovich, Nikol Vovaevich told him on April 7 in the Kremlin.

Of course, it was important for him to say all this in Moscow two and a half months before the parliamentary elections in Armenia so that Pashinyan’s nuclear voter would hear it. He, this voter, must understand that Russia not only supports Armenia, which is still surrounded by “numerous enemies,” Russia supports Nikol Pashinyan, a leader who managed to retain power in the conditions of the monstrous fatigue and apathy of the Armenians, dejected and humiliated by the heavy defeat in last year’s 44 -day war. And it was Pashinyan who managed to get Putin to promise to supply Armenia with a million coronavirus vaccines...

That’s why the Armenian prime minister needed a personal meeting with Putin now, and wasn’t it worth the extra week of new self-isolation before flying to Moscow... The picture of a live meeting in the Kremlin is very important here.

Is it really democracy?

This is an important part of the message that Pashinyan would like to see accepted in Armenia as a result of his visit. After all, he could not help but know that this message would have to collide there with the message sent to the Armenians by Channel One of Russian TV, where Kocharyan in an extremely harsh manner branded Pashinyan as a traitor (however, the ex-president did not utter this word on air once), who surrendered the interests of Armenia in that war. Posner made it clear to the viewer that it was not he who invited Kocharyan to an interview, asking the guest, why should he speak on Russian TV now, because this could hurt his ratings in Armenia?.. To which the second president, not without dignity, replied that he never hid his sympathies for Russia. But the collective Soros, as Kocharyan made it clear, that is, the West, is undermining our Armenian identity.

Of course, Kocharyan’s speech was also pre-election and, of course, was mainly addressed to the Armenians. It is worth noting here that even in the CIS it is already considered bad manners to announce one’s election plans abroad for the first time, which the ex-president of Armenia did, only in Moscow announcing that he would go to the polls at the head of a bloc of two parties. This once again says that, whatever the Armenian democracy is today, it is most directly tied to Russian realities... After all, even the $4 million bail on which Kocharyan was released by the Armenian court was paid by Russian oligarchs of Armenian origin. Let us note that even the termination of the criminal prosecution of the second President of Armenia became known exactly on the eve of his appearance on Channel One. This opened the way for him to participate in the elections and gave special significance to his declared intentions to oppose Pashinyan.

As he told Pozner, no one but him is capable of rectifying the situation in Armenia.

Because, according to him, he considers determination to be his most valuable quality.

But to rectify the situation, Robert Kocharyan must bring to parliament so many deputies ready to support him in order to force Pashinyan and his party to reckon with themselves. Today this seems unrealistic; first, the Armenian opposition must unite around the former president, whose attitude towards him is far from ambiguous even among the elite, let alone the Armenian “street,” the same one that brought Pashinyan to power.

It is interesting that among those Armenians who do not like and are even afraid of Kocharyan’s return to power, there is some gloating satisfaction that he was allowed to participate in the elections - now, they say, he will personally see how low his real rating is in an honest vote .

It seems that people in Armenia are beginning to get used to the latter circumstance.

Various Vladimir Vladimirovichs