Translated material
Putin's message from the United States and the message of Putin of Russia
Political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky and politician Yakov Yakubovich are discussing:
1. How will the new US sanctions package come to Russia? What "response measures" can come up with the Kremlin?
2. Why does Russia close part of the Black Sea?
3. Will Putin bring "military" notes to the Federal Assembly?
4. What will happen to Alexei Navalny?
The program "Faces to the event" Elena Rykovtseva is conducting.
Full video version of the program
Elena Rykovtseva: with us Stanislav Belkovsky, political scientist, and Yakov Yakubovich, chairman of the Tver municipality. The first number of our program, of course, is the sanctions that Joe Biden announced to Vladimir Putin personally or for the Russian Federation as a whole. The second paragraph of our agenda is possible response measures of the Russian Federation, which seemed to begin with the Kerch Strait. And the third point is the preparation of the message of Vladimir Putin, which, in my opinion, is more interesting to discuss than the message itself.
Yakov Yakubovich: We understand that there are several forms of president’s communication with a wide audience-this is the form of the so-called “direct line” of the president, which is sometimes similar to a prolonged not very high-quality performance, this is a press conference, and there is such a form as a message to the Federal Assembly. In fact, unlike the first two forms, the message to the Federal Assembly is quite a formal not just an act, but a document that is the basis for strategic planning for the coming period, for a 10-year-old period, for that part of it, which concerns the next year. That is, the Federal Assembly must consider a number of initiatives, adopt the relevant laws on them or develop bills, and so on.
Elena Rykovtseva: You talked about the boring part, and I'm talking about interesting. Is it really interesting to discuss the message before, and not after?
Stanislav Belkovsky: A message is a purely formal act. Because Vladimir Putin does not like publicity at all, if he could abandon the message, he would not read them, but they are provided for by the constitution. Since strict adherence to the ritual, including constitutional, is an integral part of stability, and stability is the idol of Vladimir Putin, then, of course, everything that is prescribed, he will do whether he likes it or not. We do not remember the contents of most messages for these 21 years, in exceptional cases. Last year - yes.
Elena Rykovtseva: When everyone was expelled during the message, the whole team, including Medvedev.
Stanislav Belkovsky: And so we do not mainly remember. Therefore, in principle, this message does not bring anything qualitatively. Indeed, at the preparation stage it is clear what it would be, although not always, the last time it was not clear. This time, I think, more understandable. In the preparation, there were two key points - this is the Gorbataya Taiga series, a trip with Sergey Shoigu, Minister of Defense, in separate taiga areas, designed in the style of the famous film "Gorbatai Mountain", and a trip to "Bunker" Mikhail Mishustin, to the coordination center of the government, which was in the Ukraina hotel, which many were perceived as a scattered advertising of the hotel itself "Ukraine", its owners, those very mountain Jews of Azerbaijani origin of the gentlemen or Nisanov, under whose influence, Russia did not support Armenia in the Karabakh war, according to one of the versions.
Elena Rykovtseva: We are starting with the sanctions, which Joe Biden first announced by his decree, then he described all this in his appeal to the nation.
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Joe Biden signed a decree on new sanctions
Elena Rykovtseva: You heard a list of sanctions, the reaction of the Russian leadership, the reaction of our expert. How serious is all this, how much can it hit the economy, politics, and relations?
Stanislav Belkovsky: To begin with, the sanctions were introduced after the call of Joe Biden Vladimir Putin with a proposal to meet and discuss everything, so this is part of the combined plan of the whip and the gingerbread. The US tactics against Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin are already clear, apparently this combination will continue to be implemented. Moreover, at the same time, the mechanisms of the whip and the gingerbread with a minimum temporary clearance between them will be used. The sanctions are not terrible, there is nothing significant there. Not a single serious official or businessman close to Putin came under them, except for Alexei Gromov, the first deputy head of the presidential administration, who was already under them, so his fate has not changed, it simply noted that he is the curator of Russia Today and other Russian media resources engaged in propaganda in the Euro -Atlantic world, threatened with their finger again. Technological companies are mainly budget contractors, but these are not the leaders of the IT industry, these are not companies with foreign investments. Larks on public debt is a ban on primary placement.
Elena Rykovtseva: This is a ban on American companies to buy.
Stanislav Belkovsky: The whole philosophy of sanctions, which is not always understood by observers, it boils down to limit the interaction of the subjects of the American economy, American legal and individuals with anyone. Do not take a candy from Uncle, the meaning of the shares, if you see a bad uncle on the street. This is not a very significant blow to the Russian financial markets, because, firstly, operations in the secondary market with these papers are not limited, that is, they can be sold to banks of third countries, then the Americans can still buy them. Another thing is that the accumulation of all these measures in time, of course, very seriously affects Russia's access to international capital and technology markets, is suffocating. But it cannot be said that Biden did something that was not committed by his predecessors, including allegedly loyal Russia Donald Trump.
Elena Rykovtseva: Moreover, they started a list of these sanctions with the expulsion of ten diplomats, this story is repeated.
Stanislav Belkovsky: Also, I would note as important, that America does not demonstrate much interest in the Russian opposition, domestic politics, Alexei Navalny. All these subjects did not appear either in the sanctions list, or in connection with the sanctions list, nor in the justification of it, were never mentioned in Biden's night handling, where he called Putin Klyutin.
Elena Rykovtseva: To the nation appeal and the introduction of a state of emergency in the field of national security.
Stanislav Belkovsky: There is no need to understand too much here. An emergency is a purely bureaucratic move, in America it is often introduced in various occasions. In fact, it enables both federal departments and the states to more freely dispose of budget resources and nothing more. This is not an emergency in a terrible sense, as we imagine it.
Elena Rykovtseva: Yakov, it was surprised that the announcement of the sanctions happened after such a life -affirming proposal by Joe Biden Vladimir Putin about the meeting, even some surprise among the experts reigned? At first, on his initiative, an attempt by dialogue took place, an invitation to the dialogue, the next day, not only the sanctions broke out, and also with the appeal to the nation about this emergency. Can you collect all this for yourself in a cube?
Yakov Yakubovich: Stanislav absolutely determined that this is a whip and a carrot, which is often used in foreign policy, and in the internal too. No, it was not surprising, most likely. I think that in the philistine understanding of this kind of events would have come out of the framework of interest if the federal Russian, propaganda channels would not have constantly discussed this, they would not have escalated the situation around this situation, which are even more effective for those measures that were taken from the United States of America, and most likely will be adopted from our side.
Elena Rykovtseva: I do not remember so many promises "we will answer". They always say: well, we will answer, we have something to answer. Then all this is absorbed, forgotten. We even had a forecast for the New Year, we sat with Semyon Novoprudsky, will answer or not answer these sanctions. He said: they will not answer, all this will resolve. No one answered anything. This time they promise directly iron - we have something to answer.
Yakov Yakubovich: Sorry that I will begin to twist my old barrel organ. Ahead of the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation is the composition of the lower house of the Russian parliament, which will meet the so -called power transfer in 2024, and maybe earlier. Accordingly, it is now necessary to create an image of an external enemy in order for the nation to rally around the leader, around the “party in power”, in order to form the composition of the State Duma that will actually perform the functions that the current composition, that is, extension, and continue to tighten the nuts, continue to adopt completely strange from the point of view of a normal, reasonable, adequate person that will continue to violate freedom and rights of citizens' rights.
Elena Rykovtseva: Why is this emotional indignation, indignation reached such a scope and scale as Maria Zakharova? We have not seen her for a long time in this state.
Stanislav Belkovsky: She periodically has such a state, because it exists for this - this is such a paint in the Kremlin palette. What Putin cannot say by virtue of her status, she says, but she has never punished her for her statements, because they fully correspond to the fact that the boss thinks that he himself would like to say, she is only encouraged for such statements. Putin did not like this game, that yesterday he was invited to the meeting, not through leaks in the media, but by calling Bayden, the next day, despite the fact that the American ambassador was called to the assistant to the President of Russia Ushakov and asked not to announce the sanctions, they were still announced. And it is very annoying - it is a spit in the soul, and Putin does not like such demonstrative spitting into the soul. Another thing is that you can’t answer somehow symmetrically, of course, the Kremlin cannot. What, will he impose sanctions against the subjects of the American economy? May be. Citibank is already evacuated and stops working with individuals. I agree with Yakov that, one way or another, there will be pressure on the line of "foreign agents", identifying American sources of financing of certain structures, including in no way related to politics, strikes will be delivered to them.
Elena Rykovtseva: I heard that even peaceful forums that are not connected in any way with politics, but rather related to donation, with some social projects, are checked and combed so that it is very difficult for people to get permission to conduct them, because, God forbid, American money will be started somewhere. One retaliatory sanction was still sounded-this is the Kerch Strait. Almost at the same time, these announcements occurred, Biden’s decree and the Ministry of Defense blocks some pieces of the Black Sea water space for foreign warships under the pretext of its exercises until October. How do you see this picture, why until October, why are they blocked?
Stanislav Belkovsky: This is preparation for the war with Ukraine. This is not connected with American sanctions, it is definitely not related to a response measure, decisions were made before the exchange of courtesy between Bayden and Putin. Since the Kremlin believes that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions is quite real. I must say, whoever says, as a person who reads a huge number of Ukrainian media daily, including in Ukrainian, I know that these sentiments were heated in Ukraine - this is true. Since December, since the war in Karabakh ended, there have been a lot of performances by representatives and the Ukrainian political elite on what to repeat, we can repeat the Karabakh script in the Donbass. If the troops go on the offensive, Russia will not be able to officially defend these territories, as it could not help Armenia in Karabakh. Therefore, Putin wants to show that not, if that, he will cause a response to destructive power, so there should be no offensive. That is, this is the continuation of the war of the nerves in order to prevent the hot phase of the war.
Elena Rykovtseva: Yakov, you are observing all this from the outside, from Moscow, as a citizen of the Russian Federation. It scares you or you are still inclined to the opinion of those experts and observers who say: there will be no war, this is a war of nerves, no more?
Yakov Yakubovich: The question that you asked Stanislav regarding October, I just see no coincidences, because it is in October that the results of the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation will be summed up. Will there be a war in the Donbass? These guys, who were stationed in hotels in the capitals of the regions of the Russian Federation, in August I got a great pleasure to ride in Russia, in large cities, urbanism is one of my professional interests, in every subject of the Russian Federation there is a large hotel where the colors of the khaki pants hang on balconies. At first I did not understand what it was, then in one of these hotels I stopped, I actually looked at what it was. All these guys are now pulled out, yes, the situation is heated. Most likely, provocations are possible, as it was in 1939, with which the Soviet-Finnish war began. I hope this will not happen. What is it for? Again, I’m talking about diverting attention to the external enemy, which is tightened to the borders of the Russian Federation, and we must protect our citizens, respectively, this will make it possible to rally the nation around the leader and around the “party in power” in order to form the desired composition of the State Duma. They asked a question often: why do we have other people's territories? It is clear that imperial ambitions and so on. There is such a value added tax, it is a federal tax and is a source of budget replenishment along with non -tax revenues, which are a tax on mining. VAT is always formed in the territory, in fact, it is a source of financing, which goes from the bottom, from the ground, each of us pays to one degree or another for services, goods, work and VAT foods. Accordingly, any territory of the seized creates an additional source of income for the federal budget, however, with the corresponding social burden in this territory. I expect that nevertheless we will remain in a peaceful channel, that our country should still remain in the current borders. The maximum concentration on domestic political topics is now necessary in all media, all politicians should do just that. Preparation for the election of the State Duma, so that the composition that will be competent and will ensure the sustainable development of our country to form.
Elena Rykovtseva: What surprises me: these people in the occupied territories, as called in Ukraine, issued 400 thousand Russian passports. In theory, these people should already stand in rows on demonstrations and ask for the Russian Federation: protect us from these damned Bandera. In fact, neither in the Russian information field, nor in the Ukrainian information field, I generally see these people. Do you feel some kind of reaction, some kind of attitude of the inhabitants of Donbass to what is happening? They simply are not.
Stanislav Belkovsky: If the Kremlin needed to start a war, then these people will appear. The Kremlin does not want a war, he wants to prevent it, because he really is afraid of the spirit of the Karabakh script flying over all this plot.
Elena Rykovtseva: He wants to prevent the real, in your opinion, Kiev attack?
Stanislav Belkovsky: The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Elena Rykovtseva: Which is possible without any intervention of the Russian Federation, in itself, the first?
Stanislav Belkovsky: Legally, yes, perhaps.
Elena Rykovtseva: Of course, everything is legally possible. Physically, really, analytically - can Kyiv go there?
Stanislav Belkovsky: At least in the Ukrainian media, this topic has been actively pumped over the past months.
Elena Rykovtseva: She was not escalated, they said that Russia would cross, and we will answer.
Stanislav Belkovsky: They recently began to say that way, and from December to March they very actively said that it was necessary to repeat the Karabakh scenario. In particular, the head of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Colonel General Khomchak, said that the President of Zelensky was ready to give such an order, we are ready to fulfill. He officially stated this in an interview that I read with my own eyes, heard with my ears. It is clear that the Kremlin is afraid of this. But I do not think that Putin wants to create an occasion in order to advance. He wants, no matter how ridiculous, the implementation of the Minsk agreements, which are quite beneficial to Russia.
Elena Rykovtseva: You agree that the Kremlin may be afraid of this, but the citizens of these territories do not express any fears. But we cannot judge these moods, because they are really abroad of our attention, information space. Но, как сказал Станислав, если Кремлю будет нужно, эти люди появятся. Я предлагаю послушать опрос прохожих, которых мы спрашивали, что они хотели бы услышать в президентском послании, которое состоится в среду.
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Чего вы ждёте от нового послания президента парламенту?
Елена Рыковцева: Вы видите, что мы говорим о войне и мире, а наших прохожих больше волнуют социальные вопросы, пенсии и так далее. Давайте посмотрим, что отвечали читатели нашего твиттера, потому что мы им эту войну предлагали оценить галочкой. Мы ставили четыре строчки: что бы вы хотели услышать в президентском послании? Обещание новых денег – 14%, 20% – объявление войны, 22% хотели бы услышать от него обещания мира, что никакой войны не будет, и 44% – другое. То есть у 44% читателей нашего твиттера какие-то другие предпочтения. Яков, что вы думаете об этих цифрах? Вы, как всегда, комментируете опрос на улице: люди не думают о том, война, мир. Пенсии, ЕГЭ, ковид.
Яков Якубович: Это вполне вписывается в ту риторику, которая была и в последних посланиях Федеральному собранию. Пожалуй, еще в 2012 году с выходом первых "майских указов" уже стало понятно, что экономика и государственная политика будет ориентирована на социальную сферу. Весь вопрос в том, насколько эффективно реализуются те инициативы, которые в социальную сферу направлены. К сожалению, не могу признать этого. Это в том числе связано с тем, что у нас нет понятия адресной социальной поддержки, у нас социальная поддержка оказывается или всем сестрам по серьгам, или вообще никому. К сожалению, у нас нет понимания, каким образом оценивать потребности граждан в поддержке. Идет к этому дело вроде бы очень медленно, очень маленькими шагами, но идет. Надо отметить, что, конечно, пандемия немножко подтолкнула эту историю. То, что цифровизация экономики шагнула сильно, мы помним, что происходило летом, когда эти выплаты были, нужно было сделать, и как достаточно быстро отреагировало в режиме аврала правительство Российской Федерации на эту историю. Скорее всего, как мне кажется, текущее послание Федеральному собранию будет направлено на развитие искусственного интеллекта. Мы много слышим о нем сегодня, мы видим, что есть много разных инициатив, такие вопросы звучат на встречах президента с разными сообществами, с молодежными, IT-сообществами. Я думаю, это одна из тем, которая будет звучать скорее всего на ближайшем послании.
Елена Рыковцева: Вы думаете, действительно не будет он касаться в этом послании военных действий?
Яков Якубович: Если одна из политтехнологических задач политтехнологов Кремля отвлечь внимание от внутренней политики на внешнюю, то, конечно, это будет звучать: опять образ внешнего врага, "иноагенты" – скорее всего, среди прочего это прозвучит. Но подчеркиваю, что это не просто некая публичная акция президента – это все-таки документ, серьезное мероприятие, оно формальное, оно формирует дальнейшее направление работы правительства как источника всех этих законопроектов.
Елена Рыковцева: То есть вы верите в то, что политический пиар в этом мероприятии не играет той главной роли, которую мы видим иногда?
Яков Якубович: Он играет ровно такую же роль, которую играют чисто технократические технологические вещи, которые необходимы для того, чтобы страна двигалась вперед, не только оставалась в состоянии постоянной потенциальной угрозы извне или, наоборот, угрозы вовне.
Елена Рыковцева: Станислав, если вы считаете, что как-то будет война вписана в это послание, то под каким предлогом?
Станислав Белковский: Под предлогом того, что Россия в связи с ее огромными успехами в разных областях, которые будут отмечены, в том числе в борьбе с ковидом, поскольку эпидемия в России практически закончилась, а карантина не было де-факто. Я предполагал, что эпидемия должна закончиться в день 95-летия королевы Елизаветы II – это как раз 21 апреля, когда Владимир Путин зачитывает послание, поэтому все совпало. Поэтому начинается постковидная эпоха с новыми социальными приоритетами, будет раздача слонов, как говорили Ильф и Петров устами Остапа Бендера. Уже подготовлена передача средств Фонда национального благосостояния на модернизацию ЖКХ, реструктуризация кредитов регионам, которые были даны под мероприятия борьбы с ковидом. Кабинет Мишустина будет отмечен как хороший. Не исключено, что Мишустин возглавит список "Единой России", значит, надо его приподнять в этом послании. Но в связи с этими гигантскими успехами внешние враги усиливают давление на Россию. Санкции почему вводятся, по официальной версии, – не из-за того, что Россия что-то сделала, а потому что Россия очень красивая и умная. Наши геополитические конкуренты не в состоянии это выносить. Поэтому как злая мачеха, которая не любит красавицу-падчерицу, Запад вводит санкции пачками. Мы все должны крепить свои ряды и сплачиваться вокруг президента для противостояния.
Елена Рыковцева: Он упомянет эти санкции, кстати?
Станислав Белковский: Он не будет на них концентрироваться, но то, что эти санкции вводятся, потому что мы умные и красивые – да, этот тезис по-прежнему будет звучать. А раз так, надо крепить единство, истреблять внутреннего врага, не брать у злого дяди конфетку. Военные провокации готовятся на наших границах. Мы настолько хорошо готовы к этим провокациям, что они не приведут к войне, но бдительность мы должны сохранять, порох держать сухим.
Елена Рыковцева: Давайте мы посмотрим сюжет. Уже много говорится о том, как это готовится, в каком бункере, в каком помещении. Даже "Блумберг" рассказал, что в каком-то бункере пишется послание.
Станислав Белковский: Само послание будет в "Манеже", что несколько подчеркивает цирковой характер.
Елена Рыковцева: Послушаем.
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История обращений Путина