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Raw materials for construction are quickly getting more expensive - so that the renovation program in Moscow is threatened

Last April, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said that the second wave of renovation in Moscow "would be cooler and more." And most of the buildings for the first wave of the renovation program (should end in 2032) are already either built or are under design.

However, the threat to the renovation program arose from where they did not expect it at all - from inflation.

In general, for us, inflation is an increase in prices for goods and services whose consumers we are. But this is the so -called consumer inflation, and after all, there is also an increase in prices for industrial goods that enterprises buy (sell) from each other. There is calculated its price index.

Today, everyone already knows that the growth of consumer inflation in the country has sharply accelerated. They talk a lot about this. Yes, what they say there is felt on their wallets. Remember how “grandmother from Saratov” recently “pushed” about inflation of 5.8% to the State Duma chairman Vyacheslav Volodin?

There is so much talk about industrial inflation, and Rosstat gives information on it much less often when compared with consumer inflation. You must look at this price indicator, because

The rapid increase in prices for industrial goods ultimately spurred consumer inflation, that is, additionally accelerates the increase in prices in stores.

For comparison, the figures of Rosstat : if in March 2021 consumer inflation in annual terms increased in Russia to 5.8% (“Grandmother from Saratov” is given in!), Then the prices of industrial goods increased by as much as 16%. This is a very significant growth that will necessarily affect the implementation of large investment projects, because such an increase in prices means their sharp rise in price. So, either you will have to find additional funds, or somehow reduce the cost of the projects themselves. Without a doubt, this complicates the implementation of such a large -scale project as the renovation of Moscow housing.

Almost everything related to construction is very expensive. So, according to Rosstat, cement in March 2021 cost 22.1% more than in March 2020. A similar indicator for brick by ceramic neo -other scientific - plus 14.3%.

The rapid increase in prices for metal products has already led to the fact that the Ministry of Industry and Trade has prepared changes in the list of goods that are significantly important for the domestic market of Russia and in respect of which temporary restrictions or the prohibition of export can be established in exceptional cases. This list is proposed to include iron ore, semi -finished products made of iron or illegal steel, steel rental, etc.

In addition, a proposal is being worked out on the establishment of marginal margin for each redistribution in the metallurgical market with the seizure of superpituals. I will translate this into a more understandable language: we are talking about establishing a certain rate of profit at each redistribution. That's what we can reach!

This is not even a Soviet directive planned economy. That economy was some kind of system. Yes, as historical experience showed, the system was not too effective, but it still worked for several decades. Now so much will not work out because

All these prohibitive measures are going to use in a market economy so far. And from this kind of foreign elements, in general, everything can be distinguished.

But the Ministry of Industry and Trade, it seems, is not going to limit himself to the prohibition of export of metal products. They also want to limit wood export. The reason here is the same: a significant increase in prices. According to the Association of Wooden Housebuilding , the cost of boards used in construction, from April 2020 to April 2021, increased by 2 times. Boards are needed, of course, not only for individual housing construction. On the construction of any facility in Moscow, they are also widely used.

Let us return to the prospects of the renovation program in Moscow. During its first stage (2020–2024), more than 189 thousand inhabitants from 1082 houses are assumed. However, the rapid increase in building materials observed today can cross out these plans. Therefore, the effectiveness of the approaches to containing prices are of great importance is of great importance.

The ban on export among the authorities becomes the main mechanism of price regulation. So far, the threat of prohibitions helps little. On the contrary, this stimulates, until exports have not yet been banned, to increase it as much as possible. It is not surprising that in such a situation, domestic prices are rising.

For the renovation program, all this creates the most serious risks of its non -fulfillment. At one time, the “Luzhkovskaya” program of resettlement from Khrushchevs had to be shifted by several years. This was then explained by the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. It would not have to be shifted and the deadlines for the implementation of the current renovation program, because the authorities cannot cope with the increase in prices. The reasons are different, but there is only one pain for residents - for many years you have to wait for the promised.