Leonid Gozman: "How will it all end?"

"I categorically do not like the current regime. I believe that he leads (brought?) Russia to the abyss, that he commits crimes, as well as mistakes that are worse than crimes. I believe that after the change of power, our country will pay for a long time. We will have to restore the destroyed in the political system, in the field of law, to regain the trust of the world and its own citizens, to settled the lost time, I don’t know everything, I don’t know everything. Whether it will turn out - the damage is done today, today the country is at a dead end - with this regime we will find a long decay or catastrophe, ”writes a politician on his Facebook page.

The change of regime seems to be a necessary condition for the country's exit from the crisis and its development. Sooner or later it will happen - nothing forever. But how can this happen?

Change of power as a result of parliamentary and/or presidential elections

It is hardly necessary to prove that in our version such a scenario - the most favorable from all points of view - is impossible. Moreover, the point is not only that the registration procedures, the arbitrariness of election commission and falsification for the counting of votes are insureing power from losing. Even if by some miracle all this can be overcome, the results will not be recognized, and no one will free the offices. In an extreme version, we all saw it now on the example of Belarus. The electoral procedures are not intended for a change of power.

READY OF THE ECONOMY

Many believed that the regime is only at high oil prices, and their fall would automatically lead to a change of power. Some were waiting for this with hope, some with concern, if not with fear. It was clear to everyone that this scenario would inevitably be accompanied by big problems for tens of millions of people and huge social upheavals. But oil fell, rose, fell again, rose again, but nothing happened. Economists were right, saying that the reserve of strength of the Russian economy, despite all the problems and negative trends, was very large. It does not develop, but does not collapse either.

Catastrophe

The trigger of the change of system can, in principle, serve as a large -scale natural or technogenic catastrophe of the scale of Chernobyl. Decrepiting and clumsy managerial structures may not cope with challenges, which is possible, will entail the collapse of the system. This option is as dangerous for citizens as the change of power as a result of economic collapse. But he, as the not-ended Covid-19 epidemic shows, is also unlikely. The obvious mistakes of the authorities during the pandemic, constant throwing, delay and lies, extremely weak support by the state of people and the economy did not lead to the collapse of state institutions or to large -scale indignation. Accustomed to rely only people on themselves over themselves for many decades, did not expect anything from the state, which means that they were not indignant at its inefficiency.

War

Actually, the war, in fact, has been going on in recent years. But its peculiarity in comparison with the war in Afghanistan or Chechnya, not to mention the Great Patriotic War, is not only a relatively small number of victims (may the relatives of the dead forgive me!), But, most importantly, the faint awareness of the society about the losses among our soldiers. The war in the Donbass is submitted as an internal conflict in Ukraine, in which the civilian population suffers from the actions of Kyiv, and Russia, it seems, does not participate. The war in Syria has already ended several times with a victory. It is forbidden to announce the number of those who died among the personnel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and they try to bury specific soldiers secretly or at least not attracting attention to their death. But if our leadership is so large -scale in the war that it will become impossible to hide losses, then the very people who support power today can be outraged and massively go over to the side of its opponents.

Due to the peculiarities of the formation of our armed forces, the-200 cargo will mainly go to the houses of citizens just those social layers that are now the support of the regime. Yes, they are skeptical of the current opposition, but in the case of a large war, despite the inevitable internal repressions, another opposition can quickly form with other, more understandable and attractive leaders and slogans for them. As the situation in the country will form in this case, it is impossible to predict.

We are not talking here about the world war, since in this case the problems of our regime itself against the backdrop of global death become insignificant.

Mass non -violent protests

A trigger of mass protests can be any of the above reasons, as well as many other events, large -scale or not very. It is only clear that the readiness for protests in society is quite high. However, the experience of not only Belarus and Venezuela, but also many other countries shows that while the authorities have a suppression apparatus at the disposal and while they are ready to use this device, protests do not lead to a change in power. "Walls of this prison", unlike the walls of Jericho, do not fall from the sound of pipes that take citizens into the streets.

Biology

Physical care, especially the sudden, or severe first -person disease, will mean not just a change in “portraits”, but also lead to serious turbulence - too much in the personalistic regime is tied to personal characteristics, habits and human contacts of the head of the system and impersonal procedures are too weak, which only provide stability when changing leaders. It is hardly possible to predict whether everything that is invisible to society will be limited to the struggle at the top or the battle of inheritance will take the character of open armed clashes between private armies close to today's throne.

Dynastic transfer of power

The next “successor” operation cannot be excluded. It seems that this can only happen if the current leader himself realizes that, for objective reasons, he will not be able to continue the performance of his duties, and will, at the same time, have enough time to agree on the transfer of power. In this option, turbulence will be slightly smaller, but it cannot be excluded completely at all.

Revolution

On the one hand, it seems unlikely - there is no split of the elites, the people are ready to endure for the mass, the regime has enough troops and for extreme cases, money. On the other hand, as has long been said, the only thing we know for sure about revolutions is that we do not know when they are happening. Growing dissatisfaction is almost no legal outputs - a new wave of repressive laws and practices, in fact, criminalizes any form not only of protest, but often civil activity. A striking example is the Law on Educational Activities. Under these conditions, the radicalization of part of the activists becomes inevitable - the power itself provokes violent actions, doing this, perhaps quite consciously, to create an occasion to go to open terror.

Many in power reassure themselves by the fact that “there are few real violents” - indeed, the conditional barricades are ready to go to the conditional barricades. But, firstly, only very few take a direct part in any revolution. It is important here not how many people are ready to storm the royal palace, but how many volunteers will protect it. In August, 91 White House surrounded one hundred thousand Muscovites - if it weren’t for them, more precisely, if it were not for the inability to take the White House without killing at least a few dozen of them, the State Emergency Committee would have won. But will anyone be protected today, except for soldiers? And they, as world experience shows, quite often "go over to the side of the people."

Palace coup

But this option, if biological circumstances do not intervene before, seems more likely. The regime ceases to arrange not only the population - it is disunity and cannot directly affect the situation - but also the elites. Answer Nekrasov’s question: “Who is good to live in Rus'?”, It becomes more and more difficult. A significant part of the “nobles”, who were attributed to the beneficiaries of the regime, the heroes of Nekrasov, in private conversations, are increasingly expressing dissatisfaction with what is happening and anxiety for the future of the country. In addition, many of them do the regime policy cause personal damage - the confrontation with the West has sharply complicated their lives. By the way, this applies to the immediate environment of the president. And everyone understands that with the current leader it will not be better. And this is one of the necessary conditions of the coup. March 1801 would not happen if the conspirators did not understand that the elites would approve the change of the emperor. And indeed, when reporting that the sovereign "died an apolecious blow", a spontaneous holiday took place on Nevsky.

During the pandemic, the authority of the president in the "upper ten thousand" decreased. His superization hit him in response to him, gave rise to accusations of cowardice, and the transfer of liability for the pandemic to the governors undermined the image of the indispensable mediator of elite conflicts created by him in the early years of reign. In general, the idea of ​​the need to control the system of some outstanding qualities is greatly exaggerated. In the "Golden Calf", the secretary of the director of Hercules, Polykhaeva Serna Mikhailovna for several hours, while her chef was sitting with Ostap Bender in the office, in fact, ruled the concern. It turned out that it was possible without Polykhaev. Like in 1801 - without Paul.

But there is a factor that reduces the likelihood of a coup. And this is not security - the conspirators close to the throne can bypass - and the fear of chaos, which may arise after. In 1801 it was absolutely obvious that instead of Emperor Paul, not anyone would be, namely Emperor Alexander, who suited all the conspirators. The new troubled time was not expected. Thus, today on the path of the palace coup is the unresolved of one task - to find a consensus Alexander. Or do we just not know that this problem has already been solved?

Consequences

The problem of consequences requires a separate conversation. But it can be extremely briefly said that the likely scripts - and this is biology, successor or coup - will not lead, of course, to the establishment of democratic order - the system will remain authoritarian. But, there is a chance that the new authorities of the authorities will understand the need to abandon the most odious practices in domestic and foreign policy, which will lead to a decrease in the level of isolation and expansion, albeit small, the space of freedom. Paradise on earth does not bode, but the country's chances will reappear. "