Konstantin Sonin: "Why is this Lukashenko?"

"Everyone is discussing what sanctions will now impose - after the armed seizure of a peaceful aircraft to arrest an oppositionist - the EU on Lukashenko? Many regret that these will be the next words. (You might think that the EU - or some country has especially powerful levers of pressure on Belarus ...) Someone imagines possible sanctions. But it seems to me that if this crazy promotion is given some strategic meaning - some strategic meaning. He is exactly in this .

“What is the point of arresting the founder of the independent telegram channel Nexta? Lukashenko’s power has been holding on to violence only because he has lost support in all social groups and layers of Belarus, and not because there are some telegram channels or media.

Belarusians are well aware that the vast majority hates Lukashenko, that he ruined the economy and is ready to destroy the country in order to avoid responsibility; Most are afraid to oppose him due to constant arrests, beatings and murders. Everyone knows this without any media. In the same way, the arrest does not make sense from the point of view of the terror of the population - all are already intimidated further.

So what's the point? And the meaning is exactly the same - to justify what has been done for yourself and your environment - the last months - the full defeat of the country and the economy - it is necessary that the enemy is not just to be, but for the enemy to "attack". It is clear that no one - I think, even in the immediate environment of Lukashenko - does not believe in nonsense about the fact that America or Europe will attack Belarus. And now, at least with some reason, we can talk about sanctions.

The propaganda role in this, it seems to me, has long been a pure zero, but some kind of picture for the nearest circle and myself - why am I giving a country every day? - Yes, to protect against the EU attack! - There is some sense. "