We grow over ourselves

Why is the third wave of pandemia to be explosive: we explain on the graphs

In mid -June, the official incidence of coronavirus began to grow sharply in Russia - over a week, the number of new cases increased by almost 50%. In Moscow, St. Petersburg, Buryatia and other regions, restrictions are hastily introduced: they close food courts, nightclubs and cancel mass events. The "new" was versed in whether the third wave would overtake the two previous ones.

The beginning of the third wave of Covid-19 in Russia was spoke back in late April: then Bloomberg reported this with reference to unofficial government statistics, but this information was denied this information.

But even official data show that the next increase in incidence began in April. According to this data, the third wave can be no less strong than the second: the average number of new patients per week doubles at almost the same speed as the fall of 2020. Despite this, the authorities began to take measures to restrain the pandemic only after explosive growth began.

“Judging by indirect signs, the third wave is growing more rapidly than the two previous ones. This may be due to the penetration of more contagious strains into Russia, almost the complete removal of restrictions and the disregard of citizens to sanitary measures and vaccination, ”says independent analyst Alexei Kupriyanov.

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As we thought
The graph shows how many times the average number of new patients or dead in seven days is more than before the start of the wave. For the "zero day" a date was accepted when the number of sick or dead was minimal before the rise.

For example, in Moscow, the second wave began after July 21 - then the minimum number of new cases in seven days was recorded. The wave grew slowly, and in October it began to grow rapidly: the number of infected ones increased four times, and at the peak of the waves - in December - increased 12 times.

The third wave of incidence in the capital began after March 13. The graph shows that as of June 14, the number of new patients is already four times larger than before the start of the wave.

We did not compare the rate of incidence with the first wave, since at the beginning of the pandemic, unlike the second and third wave, the height began from scratch.

As we have repeatedly said, operational data on the number of cases and dead look unreliable in most regions. It would be better to understand the picture of the pandemic, indirect indicators - for example, the number of hospitalized patients, but they are published only by single regions.

As at the beginning of the epidemic, the bulk of the sick falls on Moscow: over the past two weeks, 40% of all new cases in Russia have been identified in the capital. The mayor of the city, Sergei Sobyanin, announced an explosive increase in incidence.

Judging by official figures, the new wave began in almost half of the Russian regions - in 38 subjects the total number of infections from June 7 to 13 exceeded May values ​​by 10% or more.

One of the largest flashes is in the Far East. In the Amur, Sakhalin regions and the Trans -Baikal Territory, over the past two weeks, the number of new cases has more than doubled. In Kamchatka, in the Primorsky and Khabarovsk Territory - more than 1.5 times, and a small storm overtook the Sverdlovsk region and Crimea according to the number of daily infections and reached fourth place - after Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Moscow Region. “There are no more places left in the region’s hospitals,” said the head of Buryatia, Alexei Tsydenov.

The incidence of large regions of the country is also markedly growing: in the Novosibirsk, Sverdlovsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Omsk regions, in Crimea (+ 18–24% in two weeks) and in the Moscow region (+ 11.5%).

The situation in St. Petersburg looks relatively stable: according to the operactor, over the past two weeks, the number of new patients has grown by only 3% compared to Mai. However, local residents report that there are again lines from ambulances in the city - even at night, and hospitalization has to wait a few hours.

Against this background, the city authorities stopped publishing the number of hospitalized patients - an indirect indicator, which allows us to more reliably assess the dynamics of the epidemic. As Fontanka found out , it sharply jumped: if on June 2 in the city 510 people were placed in a hospital, then on June 14 - more than 800 . In just 12 days - growth is one and a half times.

“How strong and long will the third wave of incidence be, it is still difficult to evaluate. The most reliable pandemic indicator - excess mortality, which can be calculated on the basis of Rosstat data - will be known at best with a delay for a month, so it is not easy to give forecasts, ”says Kupriyanov.

“So far there is no reason to believe that this wave will be less than two previous ones. It is also difficult to judge the duration of the duration. In a number of regions (for example, Moscow, Petersburg, the Volga region, the North Caucasus) the first and second waves were comparable in amplitude, in other first waves, for example, in many regions of the North, Siberia and the Far East. What will happen in reality this time - only time will show. ”

Editor: Arnold Khachaturov