Is a palace coup in Russia possible? "The edges of the time" with Mumin Shakirov

Mumin Shakirov and his guests summarize the results of the 24th week of 2021

In Geneva, a meeting of the new American and old Russian presidents took place. Putin and Biden discussed the fate of the politician Alexei Navalny, cyber attacks on the USA and the situation in Ukraine and Belarus. Did the two leaders manage to reduce the degree in the relations of the two countries?

Mumin Shakirov discusses this and other topics and summarizes the results of the 24th week of 2021 with historian Andrei Zubov , publicist Mark Solonin , Americanist Alexandra Filippenko , political technology Abbas Gallyamov and neurologist Semen Galorin .

Video version of the program

Why did Putin be again about Navalny?

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Putin and Biden met in Geneva

Mumin Shakirov: Putin at least twice told a lie at a press conference in Geneva. The first - he accused Navalny that he, ignoring the requirements of the law, went abroad for treatment. In fact, Putin personally gave the go -ahead to transport Navalny to Germany after the demands of the relatives of the politician who was in a deep coma. The second lies is that the FBK, which was recognized in Russia with an extremist organization, allegedly distributed recipes for the manufacture of Molotov’s cocktail, according to Putin. There are not even such facts in a criminal case.

My interlocutors are Abbas Gallyamov and Alexander Filippenko . Abbas, why is Putin lying? So thinks or is it necessary?

Abbas Gallamov

Abbas Gallamov: This is probably the main question of modernity. It is one thing if he lies consciously, and from this fact you can draw serious conclusions about his mood, about how far he is ready to go. Another thing is if he became a victim of slander from the security forces, Patrushev. Relatively speaking, they themselves falsified something, brought him, showed him, convinced him. This is a completely different reality. Then we must reach out to Putin, convince him, explain that he is being deceived. Then he is angry with his boyars and, quite possibly, will change his course.

Mumin Shakirov: "The death of Navalny in prison will be destructive for Russia." Alexandra, how did you understand this phrase Biden?

Alexandra Filippenko

Alexandra Filippenko: It is clear that the United States, first of all, the Democratic Party, monitor the situation in Russia, to observe human rights, because it has always been prone to this to a greater extent than the Republicans. This is probably why Joe Biden emphasized this, despite the fact that negotiations, of course, were more general, first of all, the United States spoke of strategic stability in general.

Mumin Shakirov: Abbas, can Putin’s frank lies be so harmful to his environment that it will consider the boss inadequate?

Abbas Gallamov: Yes, everything goes to this. At some point, the costs associated with the need to realize an openly crazy course outweigh the pluses from it. In such situations, conspiracies arise, rulers are overthrown. We know a lot of conspiracies from history, but this is completely happening now. Literally one and a half to two years ago, in Sudan, the Al-Bashir ally, who ruled there for almost 30 years, was overthrown there for almost 30 years. Political scientist Milan Bubric considered that over the past 50 years, more than 50% of authoritarian rulers have left as a result of unconstitutional actions by the elites.

Mumin Shakirov: Alexandra, why did Biden need a meeting with Putin? What dividends did he get?

The maximum task is to show: "Russia and Putin are no outcasts, they talk to us"

Alexandra Filippenko: Here it is necessary to say about the two directions of thought of the State Department. After the White House announced that the meeting would take place, the supporters of Joe Biden were divided, there was no consensus on whether this summit was needed. But the great delegation of the State Department, led by Anthony Blinken, supported Joe Biden in an effort to conduct this dialogue. The point of view prevailed that two leaders needed to establish some personal contact. Joe Biden has repeatedly said that nothing can be compared with personal contact. We remember the famous summit in Helsinki, the meeting of Trump and Putin, when there was a joint press conference, when everyone came out inspired and expected some incredible changes in Russian-American relations. For Trump they even drank in Russian parliament. I do not remember that they drank champagne for some world leaders. And in the end, drinking champagne was completely unjustified - after this the summit did not improve in any way, on the contrary, they only worsened. And for Joe Biden it was important to establish this dialogue, reset the situation and start again. And plus, of course, the question of China. The United States is very worried about medium and smaller missiles in Asia, and China has a lot of them. And of course, it is important for the United States that there is no close rapprochement between Russia with China. This is the second line, already foreign policy, also associated with Asia.

Mumin Shakirov: Abbas, why did Putin need this meeting when he understands that the President of Russia would not hear anything good from Biden?

Abbas Galyamov: From the point of view of Russian domestic policy, the very fact of dialogue was needed. It is necessary to show the Russian audience that the situation is moving somewhere. The status quo causes people more and more rejection, we need dynamics, you need to show that something is changing. This is a minimum task. The fact of the meeting is already a sufficient basis to show that something is changing: "We had not met with them before, only cursed, and now we meet and talk." The maximum task is to show: "Russia and Putin are no outcasts, they talk to us."

Mumin Shakirov: This is a picture for Channel One: "I and the US President. He is powerful and I am cool."

Abbas Gallamov: "I am powerful. And I am not a marginal, most importantly, they talk to me." An aggressive foreign policy that seemed to turn Russia into North Korea, it is effective, it gives the result: "Look, they talk to me." That's what was done for this.

Mumin Shakirov: Alexandra, and this summit made President Putin less toxic after meeting with Bayden and opened the way for European politicians, including American ones? Or is Putin are still toxic?

Alexandra Filippenko: It is more difficult to speak with European politicians. But for the American administration "Russia", "Russian trace", "cyber attacks" are toxic words throughout the elections. We remember what scandal was inflated in connection with the son of Joe Biden and Ukraine . Russia and Ukraine - all this topic was pedal throughout the entire election campaign. Of course, this had to be somehow overcome in order to go further. Of course, so far everything that is connected with Russia, including cybersecurity, freedom of speech, Alexei Navalny, as well as Belarus, causes serious concerns among the United States and the State Department. But I must say that for the United States Russia is not an important topic, this is not some important priority in foreign policy. It was simply necessary to switch to the level of the same strategic stability (the term that has already been sore during the Cold War). Much more was discussed by Joe Biden, his meeting with other European leaders, G7. As for Russia, this is still somewhere in the background. It was important the State Department to reach some level of dialogue, because it was not at all. So far, of course, Russia remains a rather toxic topic within the United States, and once again, probably, the White House administration will not raise it. This is important exclusively in connection with cyber attacks and with ensuring the purity of intermediate elections in the 22nd year.

Navalny is a foreign policy factor

Mumin Shakirov: Abbas, but will the carpet bombardment of the opposition stop after meeting with Biden? Or will the Kremlin continue to poison the opposition until complete destruction, without any alternative?

Abbas Galyamov: I think that Bidena perceived Biden's signal. Biden confirmed that Navalny is a foreign policy factor, and "you, Vladimir Vladimirovich, must be considered this." Obviously, they were monitored by Navalny’s health, but they will follow even more carefully. As for the rest of the opposition, the pressure in their relationship will be suspended for a while, but this is not due to Bayden, but with the beginning Duma campaign. The Duma campaign as a whole should take place against some positive background so that people really want to vote for the party in power. The party of the Party of power should inspire optimism. And if people are planted every day, criminal cases are initiated against them ... According to the Levada Center, more than 60% of the population among their main fears call the fear of being a victim of the arbitrariness of the authorities. This figure per year (from the 20th to the 21st) increased by almost 10%. That is, this fear is included in the top three of the main fears of Russians. And if now it is updated, then you will just drive a loyal turnout, you will drive the people into depression. Whether you intimidate the opposition or not-it is not known whether the opposition’s core will come and will vote protest, as it was in the 19th year in the elections to the Moscow City Duma. And you can bring down a loyal turnout. Therefore, my forecast: if the Kremlin did not finally survive the mind, if he is still able to control his security forces (which is not a fact, by the way), then for the next three months of persecution of the opposition will be suspended.

Mumin Shakirov: The Kremlin left his mind or did not leave - we do not know. But there is a fact: literally after a meeting with Biden, Maxim Reznik, a bright deputy of the Legislative Assembly of St. Petersburg, was detained.

Alexandra, do we live in the era of the Cold War of Russia with America? Or is it just Putin’s personal confrontation with the West that does not accept his rules of the game?

Alexandra Filippenko: This is the Cold War 2.0, a new type of Cold War. And even what we are now discussing on Russian-American relations, of course, resembles the 70s. And to me, frankly, it reminds me of the 30s-the establishment of diplomatic relations between the Soviet Union and the USA. Of course, this is now not a personal confrontation, it is a confrontation in general, global. I would not talk exclusively about the individual.

Covid is coming

Mumin Shakirov: Since the winter of last year, it was possible to get involved in the Russian vaccine from coronavirus in almost every shopping center. But researchers note: Russians are vaccinated extremely reluctantly. And in Moscow a new surge of infections. Like last year, non-working days are introduced, they close playgrounds and return QR codes.

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The authorities closed the fan zone

Mumin Shakirov: My guest is Semyon Galperin . Semyon, why did the number of covid patients sharply grow? Where did you not look?

Semyon Halperin: These so -called "waves" raise many questions. As a rule, they statistically appear when mass examinations begin. For some reason, they do not appear when we have parades, some big events. Now a lot is forbidden, up to the point that they tried to ban on sitting on benches in parks. But meanwhile, several events are taking place on Red Square-a book fair, something else. I have great doubts about the statistics that is published in official sources.

Excessive mortality that we have received over the past year is due to the fact that people cannot receive normal medical care

Mumin Shakirov: Is it possible to explain the record excess mortality - more than half a million people - Covid?

Semyon Halperin: There is also no direct answer. I think that, rather, this is an indirect reason, because, according to statistics, even official, the mortality of the Covid-19 is about 1.5, a maximum of two times higher than from the flu. And the excess mortality that we received over the past year is due to the fact that people cannot receive normal medical care. We had closed the remaining clinic after optimization, closed on Covid, and now people die with diseases of the cardiovascular system, with cancer ... This, from my point of view, is the main cause of great excess mortality.

Mumin Shakirov: Will forced vaccination lead to the appearance of false certificates?

Semyon Galperin

Semyon Halperin: Yes. If you dial in the search engine "buy a vaccination certificate", then there you can already find dozens, and maybe hundreds of ads. Apparently, they are already popular. We saw the news when unused ampoules with the vaccine found in a landfill. Apparently, somewhere, all these drugs went to statistics. We have statistics when we need to urgently fulfill some plan, it is performed mainly on paper.

Mumin Shakirov: But nevertheless, forced vaccination is needed or not?

Semen Halperin: The last experience of forced vaccination, including children, was in the Philippines about Denge's fever. It was a tragedy because it caused a significant number of deaths. And the main reason was that the vaccine was allowed according to special rules. She did not go through classic clinical research. To date, the final data on the clinical study - conducted within 180 days - vaccines that we offer us, including the satellite V vaccines, have not been published. I have great doubts about how to allow the vaccine in such a situation to use. By the way, the position of the World Health Organization is similar. WHO warns that drug drugs cannot be used before the end of their studies.

Mumin Shakirov: Did I understand correctly that you are against compulsory vaccination?

Semen Halperin: Today, I believe that the decision to carry out mass forced vaccination in the conditions that we have today are wrong. When the results of clinical studies are published and if it is clearly shown what the effectiveness and safety of vaccines, perhaps, individual coercion elements can be used. But today there is no such data.

Mumin Shakirov: How much people do you need to vaccinate so that we get collective immunity?

Semyon Halperin: These are different numbers. The main thing is not only to vaccinate people, they need to be effectively vaccinated. It is necessary to obtain the tension of immunity, we need to get an immune response, about which we do not know anything either, based on the results of clinical trials. Therefore, here the question remains open. But there is another classic recommendation for protection against infections: vaccination is not carried out after the start of the epidemic, vaccination is a preventive action. And when mass infection has already passed, vaccination cannot be carried out.

80 years ago, the war came to the USSR

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Earthly Apocalypse, not biblical

Mumin Shakirov: 80 years ago, the Second World War crossed the borders of the USSR and turned into the Great Patriotic War. The attack of Germany on June 22 of the 41st was a surprise to Stalin and his environment. The ally and partner unexpectedly turned into a terrible enemy, who in a matter of months ended up near Moscow, destroying significant forces of the Red Army and physically exterminating millions of Soviet citizens. Where and when did Stalin miscalculate, allowing the catastrophe of the summer of the 41st year? June 22, 1941 - the day when a real earthly, not biblical apocalypse, came in the territory of the Soviet Union. Bombs and shells began to fall into dozens of peaceful cities: from Riga to Vilnius, from Brest to Zhytomyr, from Kyiv to Sevastopol. The war swept from the Baltic to the Black Seas, with raids of German aviation up to 300 kilometers deep into the territory of the USSR. Whether this was a sudden attack by Germany on the Soviet Union, or one dictator managed to get ahead of another in order to write the further scenario of the Second World War himself - a question for historians. But in fact, after the conclusion of the Molotov -Ribbentrop Pact in 1939, two leaders - Stalin and Hitler - expanded the spheres of influence in Europe. The third Reich by that time had already absorbed Austria, annexed the Czech Republic, and the southern regions of Slovakia were transferred to the ally - Hungary. After the conclusion of the Stalin -Hitler transaction, the neighbors of Germany began to fall at the Fuhrer’s feet one after another: France, Belgium, Denmark, Norway ... only 12 countries. The Kremlin began to expand its territories according to the Pact of September 1939: “cut” Poland together with Germany, the occupation of the Baltic states, Bessarabia, not without the fight and losses of part of Finland. The apotheosis of the friendship of Berlin and Moscow is a joint military parade of the Red Army and German troops in Brest. On September 28, 1939, the USSR and Germany conclude a friendship agreement that records a new border between them. Thus, Stalin and Hitler turned into contractual partners, the vertices of the destinies of hundreds of millions of people on the planet, if the theaters of hostilities in North Africa, Mongolia, China and Japan also add here. But friendship collapsed in the morning of June 22, when hell came on the Soviet land, arranged by the German military machine. From that moment on, the calendar countdown of the Great Patriotic War began, which claimed the life of 27 million citizens of the USSR, before the soldiers of the Soviet Army erected the banner of victory over the Reichstag.

We will continue the theme of World War II with Mark Solonin . Are there any other non-declassified archives that can give us something new, sensational about the Second World War?

Mark Solonin

Mark Solonin: Immediately after the victory of the Great Democratic Revolution, in August of 91, for some reason, in my opinion, 16 million cases from different archives-Soviet, party and took them into a certain vault, which was then called the “Archive of the President of the Russian Federation”. Now it is called the Department of Information Service of the President of the Russian Federation. Consequently, no citizen of the Russian Federation can even go there - they also serve the president.

Mumin Shakirov: What are they hiding?

Mark Solonin: The Great Question: did they burn everything or did they still have not burned something yet? But since they continue to secret tens of millions of cases (of course, what remained in the central archive of the Ministry of Defense), they are secret, which is not all burned yet.

Mumin Shakirov: It's about the details of some new or some turning point?

Mark Solonin: We will not find any stunning, turning our presentation of documents. There is no unknown continent anywhere. After all, every historical phenomenon leaves many traces-not only documentary on paper, but also in the lives of people, fate, on the ground something breaks or something is being built. Therefore, it is impossible to fundamentally hide large, large, rotary things, in general, they are clear to us. But, of course, it is always more interesting to see documentary confirmation-you see some important particular.

Mumin Shakirov: What was the level of diplomatic relations between Berlin and Moscow until June 22? Was it friendship, cooperation? Or the cooperation that obliged both sides to do some things?

Mark Solonin: There were normal diplomatic relations. There was an embassy, there was an embassy. An agreement on friendship and the border signed, signed on September 28, 39th year. However, the term "friendship" in the contract is hardly an adequate reflection of these relationships. Stalin, in my opinion, intended Hitler from the very beginning for his own purposes. Use, according to the wonderful metaphor of Viktor Suvorov, as an icebreaker that will hack Europe. And Stalin will come to this broken, ruined by the war. About Hitler. Ribbentrop in his memoirs, written already during the Nuremberg process, that is, on the eve of the inevitable execution, expressed the opinion that Hitler initially intended to fulfill his obligations ...

Hitler and Stalin - these were two mafiosi, who at a certain stage tried to agree that "we will rackete this city together"

Mumin Shakirov: According to Ribbentrop.

Mark Solonin: Yes, according to the hanged Nazi criminal of Ribbentrop. And only then, seeing and realizing that Stalin supports him, as the rope supports the hanged man, decided to move on to confrontation and start the war.

Mumin Shakirov: What were driven to Germany until June 22? Echelons with what goods that probably helped strengthen the military power of Germany?

Mark Solonin: Germany received from the Soviet Union about a million tons of oil and oil products. In the general balance of the German balance of oil and oil products, it was one fourth or one fifth. A certain amount of grain entered there. I counted: 60 kilograms of grain per German family. A very important transit through the Trans -Siberia, that is, from the Far East. There the Far East, the Pacific basin - huge raw materials, primarily rubber, tungsten. All these things went transit from there. Soybean beans are a very important thing for food, cheap and protein. That is, all this was a pleasant addition for Hitler Germany. I see no reason to say that these were critical supplies.

Mumin Shakirov: This is not a Lend-Lease Moscow against the war with the Nazis.

Mark Solonin: 18 million arrived on Lend-Lease, and not beans and not cotton long wages came, but high-tech equipment. Of course, these are not a land-lease, absolutely incomplete things.

Mumin Shakirov: How exactly did Hitler help Stalin? If there were echelons with grain, as you say, with oil and other products ...

Mark Solonin: Hitler calculated with Stalin fantastically generously: in exchange for raw materials, he handed over a giant amount of industrial equipment to the Soviet Union, and most importantly, endless, multi -page lists - military equipment. Several copies of one Messerschmitt, several copies of the other Messerschmitt ...

Mumin Shakirov: Why? Knowing that he will attack. Or then he did not know yet?

Mark Solonin: Hitler, poor fellow, there was nowhere to go, because these contracts were signed at the end of the 39th year. When Hitler realized that he was in a situation of war against the British Empire with an area of 40 million square kilometers, which is twice as much as the Soviet Union, also a rather big country. And in fact, the French Empire. France also had giant colonial possessions. Moreover, the United States loomed behind these opponents, and the United States at that time is more industrial production than the rest of the world together. In this situation, he needed an ally. He was ready to take off his brown shirt and everything else.

Mumin Shakirov : That is, these were two partners who conscientiously fulfilled their obligations?

Mark Solonin: Hitler and Stalin - these were two mafiosi, who at a certain stage tried to agree that "we are racketing this city together."

Mumin Shakirov: Could you name those cities or those places where the most powerful resistance was provided, and the Russian, Soviet soldier showed himself as a real fighter and patriot, was an example for the rest?

Mark Solonin: If we started talking about a Russian soldier ... There is a Rava-Russian place in the Western Ukraine ...

Mumin Shakirov: a Russian soldier is like a metaphor.

Mark Solonin: Rava-Russian. There was a Rava-Russian fortified area, there was, if I do not confuse, the 41st Infantry Division, she had a Komi nationality commander. This division in the Rava-Russian fortified area held five German divisions for almost a week. There was a Brest fortress. The largest losses of the Germans during the first week are the losses of the division that tried to take the Brest Fortress. We also have Murmansk, the Kola Peninsula. There, the Germans failed. They had the task of reaching the Murmansk Kandalaksha, completely cutting the railway connecting Murmansk with the country, which would cut off the opportunity for Lend-Lease deliveries. They concentrated four German divisions there, which suffered such losses that they simply had to be diverted to reorganize.

Mumin Shakirov: German archives are all revealed or are there any secrets too?

Mark Solonin: Of course, the German are disclosed. And who would allow them not to reveal? They are defeated.

New laws on military history

Mumin Shakirov: The State Duma equated the images of the Nazis with extremist materials. According to the document, a public demonstration of such images will be allowed only in the absence of signs of propaganda or justification of Nazism. Parliamentarians also adopted a law prohibiting the role of the roles of the USSR and fascist Germany. I talked about this with Andrei Zubov .

Andrei Borisovich, how to avoid criminal punishment on the fact of the State Duma adopting new laws regarding military history?

Andrey Zubov

Andrei Zubov: I think that these laws were adopted in order to punish those whom they want. And whom for some reason they will not want to punish, they will not be punished. Now many laws are adopted specifically for accounting for accounts with people interfering with the regime. A lot of people delay their payments for real estate rental, but it is to opponents of political power that this is charged with, and they are forced to go abroad or arrest. And here the same thing. We will not be able to avoid this. If they want, say, to attract me according to these laws, they will simply take my books, naturally, they will attract and put me. We must be ready for this, because our state is lawlessly. The Russian state is outside the laws. Those laws that it adopts are outside the field of law. And we all live in such a situation. And we must not fight for the fact that a new law does not knock on us. It will knock if they want. And to fight to ensure that such laws are not adopted. This is a political issue. That is why I participate in political life. I am a member of the Party of People’s Freedom and struggle with lawlessness as I can. We cannot ignore the more and more expanding non -legal field of our country, in which both Nazism and all sorts of things associated with the Second World War and Nazism occupy a fairly large place again for selective information information.

Mumin Shakirov: Molotov Pact - Ribbentrop - is the art of diplomacy and delaying the war, how is pro -government historians interpreted, or is it an alliance with the Nazis, "sawed" Europe and the betrayal of future allies?

Andrei Zubov: I don’t know about the betrayal of the Allies, but this, of course, “sawed” Europe. Simultaneously with the Molotov -Ribbentrop Pact, they also designated the zone of separation of interests in Eastern Europe, according to which Bessarabia, Baltic countries, Finland and half of Poland entered the zone of interests of Stalin. Of course, this is an agreement that stimulated aggression. There was no art of diplomacy here. It was also idiocy. If you consider the objectives of politics to preserve the world and human lives, then it was necessary to follow a completely different path and sign a pact about mutual assistance with England, France and Poland, but then the Stalinist regime would not be the Stalinist regime. The Stalinist regime, which killed millions of his citizens, was quite easily considered the possibility of continuing this murder outside of his country, capturing new territories. Actually, there is a lot of Stalin’s statements, where he says that “we will wage war in Europe, we will prepare for war in Europe, we will help the proletarian revolution win in Europe.” This translated into human language means "we will capture Europe."

Mumin Shakirov: Was there a parade in Brest in the 39th year, where the Nazis and soldiers of the Red Army participated, or was it, as the Prochrevsky historians say, just the march of the Nazis with passive behavior and observation of Soviet soldiers and officers?

Andrei Zubov: What is the march of the Nazis, when there is our commander Krivoshein, in my opinion, with Guderian?! And then the Nazis handed over to the Brest to the Soviet side. This is a mutual border correction. Of course, there was a parade.

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