Prime Minister

The opposition lost. But there will be no civil war. Arkady Dubnov - On elections in Armenia

Fifteen years ago, at the end of the Fidel Castro, I happened to be in Cuba. In Havana, on the way from the airport, among huge fading banners, to which no one but foreigners already paid attention, arshin letters - the inscription: "The revolution continues!"

It was 2006, the Cuban revolution was already almost half a century, and this revolutionary enthusiasm was impressive.

The victory of Nikola Pashinyan at the extraordinary parliamentary elections in Armenia, who last on June 20, may also seem to be a continuation of that peaceful velvet revolution that he offered him to power three years ago.

Perhaps this is partly true. Because a certain contribution to his victory was made not so much by Pashinyan supporters as those who are more than disappointed in Pashinyans - the people's stands and a fighter for justice - experienced fear and hatred of those who were demolished from the power Olympuses of the April Revolution of 2018 - to former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Sergey Sargsyan, who tried to take on June 20 to take a revenge defeat. Although Kocharyan cannot directly be considered directly victims of the “velvet”, it was against him that criminal cases were opened on charges of state crimes during the president’s post in 1998-2008.

REFERENCE
According to preliminary data, the party “Civil Treaty”, headed by acting, won the extraordinary parliamentary elections in Armenia Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is 53.92% of the vote. Behind it follows the Armenia block, headed by the second president of the country, Robert Kocharyan - 21.04%. The third result is that the Bloc “Honor has”, one of the leaders of which is the third president Serge Sargsyan - 5.23%. According to the Constitution of Armenia, at least three political forces should be present in the parliament, so I have the “honor” will receive a certain number of deputy mandates.

For the formation of the government, the ruling coalition must have at least 54% of the deputy mandates. Nikol Pashinyan has already announced that his party, as a result of proportional redistribution of votes received by blocks and parties that did not overcome the passing barrier, will receive at least 71 deputy mandate out of 105, which gives the right to independently form the government.

The remaining 22 blocs and parties participating in the elections received fewer a passing barrier for blocks (7%) and parties (5%) and remain overboard the National Assembly.

Revenge did not work. More than half of the Armenian citizens who have the right to vote (2,595,334 people) simply did not come to vote (49.4%turnout): some are tired of believing the idol, hoping for fulfilling his promises, others waved their hand to power, whatever it may be, and are only striving to survive ...

More recently (last fall) there was a war-the second 44-day Karabakh, thousands of Armenian families will never wait for their men, hundreds of families are waiting for the return of living from Azerbaijani captivity.

The opposition demanded the resignation of Pashinyan from the first day of the ceasefire - from November 10, 2020. Stormy rallies, fierce accusations of the Prime Minister of Capitula and Northern Government of the Country,

led to tragic defeat. And most importantly, the fact that he did not protect the life of thousands of Armenians, abandoning a truce with the enemy in the first weeks of the war, offered by the Russian President Putin, which would also retain part of the territories around the Nagorno-Karabakh occupied by Armenia in the first Karabakh war in the early 1990s.

Pashinyan fought off the accusations as he could, transferred to a counterattack, claiming that the thieving ex-presidents who did not prepare the army for war were to blame for everything, some of the generals who did not know how to fight, part of the abroad, including the world Armenian, who had little helped the historical homeland ...

It seemed a little more, a little more-and Pashinyan flutters, agreeing to the categorical demand of his opponents to leave their posts, to resign and immediately declare the holding of extraordinary parliamentary elections. Moreover, he himself promised to do this, recognizing his responsibility for defeat in the war. The question was only in terms ...

And here the leader of the velvet revolution showed that his victory of the 2018 model was not accidental. Excellent possession of the art of leading the “street” was not lost, the premiere’s populism remained his main ally, replacing the army in this capacity, when it seemed that she had rebelled in response to his attempt to shift part of the general, who accused the premiere of irresponsibility and unprofessionalism.

The superiority of the prime minister over the "old robbers" of the Armenian Establishment affected very effective in the media space. The generation of field commanders of the Karabakh war of the 30-year ago could not be compared with the next generation of the Pashinyanov team, who was suitable for their sons. The battles on Online Karabakh veterans who knew how to fight against Offline were played almost everywhere. Facebook and in general social networks were a powerful personal weapon in Pashinyan's hands.

Pashinyan managed to stay afloat when even the current president of Armenia Armen Sargsyan ceased to support him, who tried to find a way out of the most severe political battle between the prime minister and most of the Armenian elites, military and diplomats. The prime minister ruthlessly got rid of those ministers who did not show him full support. At some point, in Yerevan they even began to joking gloomily that the country could well do without its own Foreign Ministry, when its head was forced to resign.

But, perhaps, a reference point, which made Pashinyan to believe in his stability, became certain assurances received by him in the Kremlin and in personal communication with Putin. They made it clear that in his desire to stay in power before the hard onslaught of the “former”, and first of all Robert Kocharian, the rumor of which, as a “personal friend of Putin”, fled in front of himself, will not have significance in the election race. The signal from Moscow was clearly read: let's get struggle with each other, we won’t interfere, but we won’t help anyone, and we will work with that ... we will work ...

It seems that for the most part it was in recent weeks. And it was not up to the Armenian agenda at these times in Moscow: an incomprehensible Bayden in Geneva, a terrible Covid in Russia, an evil persecution of an unyustem opposition before the election to the Duma ...

Therefore, on Monday morning, after the Sunday of the Armenian elections, when the unconditional victory of Pashinyan and his party “Civil Treaty” was discovered, in the Kremlin, it seems, breathed a sigh of relief. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov congratulated the Armenian people on a choice and wished him "to cope with the difficulties that the country is now experiencing and reaching a stable development trajectory, including through the implementation of tripartite agreements."

This good for Pashinyan the news from Moscow puts an end to possible conversations about the attempts of the loser of Kocharian to seriously dispute the election results. Although the day before, voting in his polling station, he radiated confidence in victory. "Doubt?" He threw instead of answering the reporters who asked him about forecasts.

There will be no civil war, which the pessimists spoke of fear. People are really tired ... And the promises of Pashinyan, who overwhelmed his power in the coming years, again divide the country into the right and guilty, into enemies and like -minded people, is unlikely to bring Armenians to calm and a well -fed life. The hammers that the prime minister threatened his enemies, going to rallies, obviously, will have to be put aside, or even cross them instead of swords to shouting ...

It turned out that it turned out a little in Armenia those who were ready to call the old leaders in order to extend new wars with them. Yes, and there are no new leaders for such a revenge. It is necessary to admit this and get involved in other battles, non -persons, without losing dignity and without exhausting compatriots.