Rosstat fixes a decrease in the share of the oil and gas sector in the economy. Why there is nothing to rejoice at

Rosstat finally calculated the share of the oil and gas sector (NGS) in the Russian GDP. It is strange, of course, that the department did not do this before - and discussions about the depth of the penetration of the "oil needle" into the Russian economy were built on various indirect indicators. And where there is no official assessment, there are “possible options” - some analysts said that Russia, by and large, was just an oil and gas company, others claimed that we were an energy superpower. The authorities, on the one hand, had no doubt that the Russian Federation in the sense of oil, and on the other hand, constantly reminded that “it was necessary to get off the oil needle,” and set tasks for the development of non -resource export and diversification of the economy.

But now everything is in order. There is a calculation methodology set forth in the report of the deputy head of the statistics department of the GDP of the National Accounts of the Federal State Statistics Service Pavel Maximov. And, most importantly, there is a final figure - the share of the oil and gas sector (NGS) in the GDP of the Russian Federation, according to the results of 2020, amounted to 15.2%.

This is at least over the past four years-in 2019, the share of the NGS in GDP was 19.2%, in 2018-21.1%, in 2017m-16.9%, Rosstat claims. Considering “live money”, last year hydrocarbons brought 16.3 trillion rubles to the Russian economy (at the current GDP prices for 2020 amounted to nearly 107 trillion rubles). By the way, it is curious that the ballot about the current trends of the Russian economy for June 2020 (release 62) “Dynamics and the structure of GDP of Russia”, released by the analytical center under the Government of the Russian Federation, did not emit “oil and gas” into a separate sector, but simply indicated that “according to the account of production” in 2019 “mined mining” amounted to 11.3% of the military.

How do we actually depend on oil

I must say, against the background of other world manufacturers of hydrocarbons, Russia, if we counted according to the methodology of Rosstat, does not at all look like a “Benzokolnoye country”. Yes, in terms of oil production in the world of the Russian Federation, it shares the first or second place with Saudi Arabia, but in the kingdom the share of the oil and gas sector is 50% of GDP. For the UAE, a similar indicator will be 30% of GDP, for Norway - 14% of GDP, for Kazakhstan - a little more than 13% of GDP. In Canada, Neftegaz provides less than 10% of GDP, in the USA - about 8% of GDP. It is not even very clear - why was this all this noise about the "need to abandon" oil dependence "?

And even more so I can’t share enthusiasm for reducing the share of the NGS in the GDP of Russia.

In fact, according to the most critical estimates of experts (Rosstat, as we recall, issued an official figure only now),

The share of hydrocarbons in the GDP of the Russian Federation over the past 30 years has not exceeded 26.5%, and the share of oil and gas exports did not go over 14.5% of GDP.

And there is no special achievement in reducing the share of the NGS in the GDP of the Russian Federation in 2020 - last year oil prices decreased (the average price of a barrel of Urals fell from $ 63.9 to $ 41.4) plus the decision of the OPEC+ Cartel+ led to a reduction in oil and gas production by 10%. We will not forget about the recession of oil demand during world quarantines - and they sold little, and cost oil inexpensively - here you have a reduction in hydrocarbons to the GDP.

If you want to not just calculate the share of the cost of the oil and gas complex and taxes received from it in relation to the country's gross domestic product, as Rosstat does, and try to evaluate the degree of influence of the oil industry on the economy, then you will need slightly different calculations and assessments.

To begin with, we must recall that the main industry in Russia is trade, “by share in GDP”, in any case, it is not inferior to hydrocarbons. And more than half of the goods are imports. And import, of course, is funded by export revenue. But 44.6% of this very export revenue in 2020 provided oil and gas, Rosstat will not argue with this. And the taxation of imports - formally, it is like “not oil”, but everyone understands: there would be no oil exports - there would be no consumer and industrial imports, there would be no import customs duties and VAT.

And do not forget direct investments at the expense of petrodollars. And you can add here the entire “glamorous luxury economics”, built around the super-consumption of all who are related to the distribution of export income. And this is also the interest of GDP, and not one or two.

So “dependence on oil” is a more complex thing than an arithmetic operation of hydrocarbon division in the amount of GDP. And to assess this oil recovery, those 15% of GDP calculated by Rosstat can be calmly multiplied by two, or even two and a half, and not be mistaken.

After raw material dependence - poverty?

But there is another important question - what do you really do not like raw material dependence? And why should I "get rid of it"? There are “raw materials” Canada, Australia and Norway - and it's okay.

But Mexico rested and got rid of the oil recovery, in the literal sense of the word - was a “raw materials appendage”, and became “industrial economy” - 80% of Mexican exports provide industrial goods, both high -tech (cars, computers, medical equipment) and mass food. Moreover, these are quite high quality goods that are sales in the US market. Here you are “diversification”, and “industrialization”, and “tear from the oil needle”. There is only one problem - all these wonderful things did not make Mexico a prosperous and developed country. The same corrupt, uncomfortable for life, a poor country (poorer than the "oil" Kazakhstan in the per capita GDP).

Yes, and for that matter

A decrease in the share of the oil and gas sector in the GDP, recorded by Rosstat over the past three years, has not brought the Russians either prosperity or well -being.

Official statistics recognize a decrease in income, and the optimistic updated forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development provides that the growth of GDP of the Russian Federation will not be accompanied by the same increase in real salaries (i.e., adjusted taking into account inflation). According to the mayor, this year, the real salaries will increase by 3.2% - this is lower than in the crisis 2020 (+3.8%), and this indicator will continue to decline, the ministry believes. So, in 2022, real salaries will add 2.4%, and in 2023–2024. - 2.5%each. Are you sure that these are the same “diversification” with “industrialization that you wanted instead of the“ oil needle ”?

The forecast for oil export from the Russian Federation for 2021 of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation reduced to 217 million tons, oil products - to 135.8 million tons. The forecast of the Ministry of Oil export for 2022 has also been reduced to 250.9 million tons from April 257 million tons, a forecast for the export of petroleum products - to 139.6 million tons, from 140.5 million tons.