Handing out QR codes, the mincifers accidentally declassified the scale of the Covid epidemic in Russia. This data is five times higher than official

Joint investigation "Medusa", "Mediazones" and "Cold"

Only three weeks in Moscow restaurants did not serve visitors without QR codes. Not only vaccinated, but also ill people, as well as owners of a fresh negative PCR test, could get them. At the same time, in QR codes with certificates that the Russians began to come, statistical indicators from federal registers were encrypted. Studying the certificates issued by “public services”, “Medusa”, “cold” and “mediazon” found that in the register of the Ministry of Health, created to track the number of coronavirus, more than 29 million records. This is five times more than the operational headquarters to combat coronavirus officially reports.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin on June 22 said that in a week, visitors would only be allowed to be allowed to be allowed to go to restaurants and cafes with QR codes. Those Muscovites who were vaccinated could get them through the Moscow portal of state services of Mos.ru by Covid in the last six months or handed over a negative PCR test.

The measure was not planned as short-term, and it left no chance of getting into restaurants to the non-commercials, so for them a similar system of assigning QR codes was a little later implemented through the Federal Portal of State Services; And if the Moscow site began to issue codes on June 28, then “public services” - only from July 1.

Oleg Kachanov, deputy minister of digital development of Russia, explained this delay on June 24 by the fact that the integration of “public services” with the bases of the Ministry of Health would be required. “The unified register of illuminated is in the information resources of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation ... We will have this integration, and we are ill for those who have been ill, and there are about nine million records in the register, we will receive them [QR codes],” the official said in an interview with Russia 24.

Kachanov called by Kachanov - about nine million - became a sensation, because, judging by the operating staff on the same day - June 24 - a little less than five million Russians were ill with coronavirus. However, as the journalists of three publications found out, the official did not overestimate, and even underestimated this number.

Kachanov’s words and their discrepancy with official statistics were paid attention to the researcher of statistical anomalies, physicist Sergei Spilkin, who studies vaccination. And soon he put forward the hypothesis that the real number of illuminated can be estimated by starting from the number of “State Services” certificates with the QR code-since they are somehow connected with the federal register of Covid.

Hypothesis of Spilkina

Physicist Sergei Spilkin usually explores statistical anomalies on the votes, but with the beginning of the epidemic, he began to closely monitor the statistics of incidence and mortality from Covid, as well as the course of vaccination. He noticed that at the "public services" certificates of vaccination are numbered in order, and asked those who wanted to send him part of the number of their certificate. The analysis of the collected numbers led him to the conclusion that the numbering of certificates of vaccination is united for the whole of Russia, which means that by the certificate number (last eight digits) you can find out how many people were vaccinated in the country by this moment. The numbers obtained by Spilkin completely coincided with the data on vaccination, which were collected by independent analysts (the Ministry of Health did not begin to publish this data).

At the same time, Shpilkin "arose another idea." He suggested that since vaccination certificates are numbered in order, then certificates for the chilled can be arranged similarly. And again he asked everyone for help: to send the impersonal part of the certificate number and the date of recovery from coronavirus indicated in it.

Unique number

The reader of the Mediazones from Moscow was infected with coronavirus at the end of March, but she was ill easily and for two weeks already received a negative PCR test. Three months later, the “State Services” application sent her a notification of the “Immunization certificate after the COVID-19” and a QR code for visiting Moscow restaurants.

In fact, this code is a regular hyperlink, which leads to a special section of the "State Services" website. Opening this link, an employee of the restaurant must make sure that the visitor can be in the restaurant room. And if you open the link on the computer and see the page code, it is clear that the certificate number is indicated by the UNRZ abbreviation. This is a “unique register record”, such a term is used in many registers of the Ministry of Health - the same designation is on the page with the code of the vaccination certificate.

The day after the performance of the deputy minister Kachanov on integration with the sickean registry, June 25, a description of the data loading scheme “From the Covid Register” appeared at the Situying Center of the Ministry of Cyphra and on the technical portal . In addition to other data, the 15-digit number of the UNRZ should be transmitted from the register.

Can I see this number in the certificate of ill -foured? Journalists of Medusa, Cold and Mediazones found out that yes.

The number of the certificate of the disease has consists of 16 digits: it is an eight, a two -digit code of the region and a unit (this figure in all certificates we tested is the same and, judging by the same registers , denotes the recipient of budget funds); the next four digits - a month and a year; But the last eight digits are a unique number of ill -fledged.

The same format (only without eight at the beginning, that is, 15-digit) is used in the formation of the UNRZ in the federal register of persons patients with a new coronavirus infection. When the data on the sick for the first time remain in the register, it is assigned to the UNRZ - this moment is shown in the training video of the Ministry of Health. Apparently, at the same moment, the date encoded in the UNRZ, which then falls into the certificate number, is set. After all, the reader of the Mediazone, who recovered in April, has 0321 in the certificate number on the date of the date - and she was diagnosed in March.

It turns out that when creating a certificate for the ill -given portal of “State Services”, he simply takes his number from the federal register and adds the first eight to it (and the vaccination certificates begin with the number 9). This is evidenced by the version of the certificate in a specialized JSON format, which can also be downloaded from “public services”: there is a 15-digit UNRZ field and 16-digit Unrzfull-with eight in front, like the certificate number.

But since the UNRZ in the federal register is formed when registering the disease (and then falls into the certificate for the recovered), it turns out that the last eight digits in the certificate are the serial number of a sick person.

The interlocutor of Medusa in one of the regional Ministry of Health confirmed that the serial number in the register is a single country throughout the country and reflects the total number of registered sick at the time of the creation of the UNRZ for each patient.

125 thousand new cases per day

Several dozen certificates and recovery dates that Sergey Spilkin collected from volunteers allowed to evaluate the real scale of the epidemic over the past six months-more “old” numbers on “public services” are not available, since the QR code for the ill-fledged is formed only in the previous six months. But the very last of the certificates sent - from a person who recovered at the end of June 2021 - has a serial number 27 million 300 thousand. The source of Medusa in one of the federal departments, familiar with the work of the federal register, to the question of whether this figure corresponds to the number of records in the register, replied: "It is."

Now, as the Medusa journalists found out, the serial numbers of the “State Services” certificates for the ill are already exceeded 29 million. This is almost five times more than the number of patients in the country officially registered during the pandemic is six million.

Since the certificate number is created at the moment when the person is ill, and the certificate itself is written out only upon its recovery, the number of today's certificate would show the number of records in the register (that is, sick), which was observed two to three weeks ago. The certificate is created only after a person’s recovery, but the number in this certificate belongs to the moment of the disease. Therefore, it is impossible to say exactly what dates the peak of the appearance of new entries in the register came. Officially, the maximum cases of coronavirus in Russia - 29,935 sick per day - was recorded on December 24, 2020.

"The register is filled very honestly, but it is inaccurate"

However, the number of records in the federal register does not accurately reflect the number of emis. For example, if a person gets sick again, a new record is created for him. But that's not all.

According to the instructions of the Ministry of Health, not only people with a positive result of a “laboratory research” (referring to PCR and other tests) should fall into the register, but also those who were diagnosed with Covid-19 “using other diagnostic methods” (according to the recommendations of the Ministry of Health, we are talking about computed tomography). In addition, the register includes "all cases of pneumonia, including outpatients."

The journalists could not evaluate what share of pneumonia, not related to coronavirus in the register. For the statistics of the incidence of inflammation of the lungs excluding the Covid-19 “Mediazona”, she turned to Rosstat, who already provided such data for the first months of 2020. Now the department replied that in the data of the Ministry of Health and Rospotrebnadzor, the incidence of incidence is no longer a separate graph on pneumonia.

In addition, according to the Medusa source in one of the federal departments, the regions themselves determine how to lead the register: to bring there only cases of coronavirus and pneumonia or also dubious cases of SARS, which can be up to 20-30% in the register.

“The register is filled very honestly, but it is inaccurate,” the interlocutor explains, adding that at the federal level it is necessary to double -check data from the regions.

Another error that can occur when assessing by the register number is due to the fact that patients are removed from it whose primary diagnosis of Covid-19 was not confirmed-and the released serial number is then assigned to the new illness.

Among the certificates that Sergey Spilkin received, there are examples of inconsistency in the rooms. For example, a certificate with a serial number starting at 2327 was issued to the collapse in April 2021, and a number starting at 2376 - which was ill in March.

But this error only means that the specific number of the UNRZ can be less than the real number of sick in the register.

"Information is not true"

At the request of the Mediazones journalists to the Ministry of Constantires (this ministry is responsible for the work of the Russian Public Service portal) to confirm that the number number of the ill-fed is formed on the basis of the UNRZ from the coronavirus register of the Ministry of Health, the press service of the Ministry of Culture replied that the “Portal of the State Services” is a showcase contained in the register of the gabs of the gabs, whose operator of which was operator. The Ministry of Health acts. "

“When forming a certificate, a registry recording of the Ministry of Health is used,” the press service said in response to a request.

Medusa and Mediazon turned to the Ministry of Health and the Federal Operational Headquarters to combat coronavirus with a request to comment on the number of records in the register and its difference from official reports on the incidence. The headquarters asked to bring their comment entirely. Here he is:

The federal information resource for accounting for information in order to prevent the spread of a new coronavirus infection Covid-19, created for official use, contains information about the following citizens:

-with a confirmed diagnosis of Covid-19,

- hospitalized with signs of pneumonia,

-Coquid-19 vaccination.

Your information on 27 million cases of COVID-19 or pneumonia is not true. The figure of 27 million, which is referred by your source, really appears in the information resource, but with respect to the vaccine vaccinated by the first component of the vaccine as of July 9, 2021.

Actual information on the number of cases of COVID-19, including without clinical manifestations, is reported daily to the operational headquarters to prevent the fees and distribution of a new coronavirus infection in Russia and is published in open access on the STOPKOronavirus.rf website. On July 15, 2021, 5,882,295 cases of COVID-19 in Russia were registered.

In the Ministry of Health, they answered a clarifying question about the register of the ill -fed that the commentary of the opera station reflects their position too. According to the representative of the Ministry of Health, "the only thing that this figure [27 million] is similar is the number of the first component as of July 9, vaccinated by the first component." And to assess the number of sick people, he urged to focus only on the daily reports of the operational headquarters.

That is, the federal operage for the fight against coronavirus and the Ministry of Health suggested that, asking the question of 27 million records, journalists mixed up the registers of ill and vaccinated.

But this is not so, and this is evident from the depersonal screenshot of the certificate of a person who recovered from Covid on February 18, 2021.

The number of his certificate can not be taken from the regional register simply because at that time the vaccinated in the country was several times less. The serial number in this certificate is 17 million, and by mid -February in Russia only 11 million doses of vaccines were produced and about four million people were vaccinated .

If we assume that the number of the certificate of the ill -fledged reflects the number of Covid's sick in the country, then the indicator of 29 million sick would bring Russia to third place in the world in an absolute number of cases of coronavirus. In terms of a million inhabitants, the country would have risen from 85th place to the first, even ahead of the small states of Andorra and Seychelles.

Update. After the publication of the text with the Mediazona, the reader contacted, who in July 2021, due to the error on the website of the State Services, received a certificate of the agitated Covid-19-although he was ill with coronavirus back in April 2020. As evidence, he provided the editorial with the screenshot of this certificate and a letter from the “public services”, which indicates the date of its recovery - the date on these documents coincides, and this is May 2020. And in the certificate in the certificate in the field that coincides with the UNRZ, there is a number of a little more than 214,000 (the reader asked not to disclose the exact number). According to the operating system, by the end of April 2020, 106 thousand cases of Covid-19 were identified in Russia. This example proves that the journalists did not confuse the registers of the sick and vaccinated, as the Ministry of Health suggested, because in April-May 2020 there was no vaccine from coronavirus in the country-the first Russian satellite V-V vaccine was registered in August.

Authors: Svetlana Reuters and Denis Dmitriev ("Medusa"), Mikhail Zelensky ("Cold"), Maxim Litavrin ("Mediazone")

Editor: Tatyana Lysova