The Russian authorities could prevent 200 thousand deaths from Covid. But they abandoned the second Locksuan, because the economy was more important for them

Report of the Foundation "Liberal Mission" - a brief retelling

The Liberal Mission Foundation on July 19 released the report “More than Covid. Authoritarian regime and Russian society in the face of a pandemic. ” It examines what the reaction of the Russian state and society to the pandemic was and why Russia, as the authors of the report believes, suffers defeat in the fight against coronavirus. Medusa briefly retold the main conclusions of the report.

At first, the Russian authorities response to the pandemic was effective. The restrictions introduced at the end of March 2020 turned out to be tougher than in most countries of the world - including in Europe. Perhaps this was explained by the fact that the Russian authorities focused on China's experience or planned to quickly stop the pandemic in order to vote on amendments to the Constitution.

Thanks to the tough Lokdown in March - April, there was no excess mortality in Russia. But in May - June, restrictions began to be removed. This led to the spread of coronavirus deep into the country, and in July excess mortality reached 27% of the natural level.

The premature abolition of Locksuan can be explained by dissatisfaction of the population due to isolation and unpaid weekends, the government’s reluctance to bear economic costs from restrictions and compensate them for the population, as well as the voting on constitutional amendments.

Simultaneously with the removal of the Locdown, the authorities began to manipulate both the restrictions themselves (to ban rallies , but to allow voting on amendments), and statistics on incidence and mortality. This gave the society a reason for mistrust to official statements, and a false signal of the danger of pandemia: they began to treat it as “fake”, and the return to Lokdown seemed to people a meaningless measure.

In early September 2020, the level of restrictions in Russia was lower than on average in the world and in most European countries. Despite the beginning of the second wave, anticonaviral measures did not tighten. As a result, excess mortality increased sharply: in October it reached 40%, and in December increased to 66%.

The reason for the rejection of the second round of restrictions was probably the combination of political (the negative attitude of the population to Locksu) and economic (unwillingness to spend cash reserves) of the reasons. It was decided to preserve the state “airbag to solve other problems - in particular, in case of intensification of sanctions, the authors of the report said. As a result, for example, Brazil, whose per capita is one and a half times lower than Russian, sent to the aid of citizens and business two to three times more funds in relation to GDP.

In addition, a significant part of the help did not reach the recipients: they were faced with difficulties and wires when receiving money. “The impression was that the government was more afraid to spend allocated funds than to leave without money those who are most necessary for all,” writes Oleg Buklevshev, director of the Center for the Center for the Exercise Policy of the Economic Policy of the Economic Policy Department of the Economic Policy of the Economic Policy.

Due to the low level of restrictions and the rejection of the second Locdown of GDP in Russia in 2020, it turned out to be not as serious as in other countries - 3.1%. The reverse side was that the economy would not be restored so dynamically: according to the report given in the report of the organization of economic cooperation and development (OECD), by the end of 2021, the growth rate of the Russian economy will begin to lag behind the mid -Issue.

In addition, Russia paid for the relative stability of the economy with high excess mortality. According to the calculation model proposed in the report, from March 2020 to May 2021 it amounted to 532 thousand people (before the beginning of the third wave of coronavirus), which is 26% higher than the natural level. This is not an ultra -high indicator: records belong to the countries of South America. But if Russia managed to stay at the level of excess mortality of 15% (this level was this level until October 2020), then by May 2021 it would be 220 thousand deaths, the authors of the report said.

In addition, the “conflicting signals and the manipulative approach” of the Russian authorities to the Koronavirus problem formed in society a distrust of the measures taken in the country to combat pandemia - including vaccination. Russia was not able to deploy an active vaccination campaign until the third wave of pandemic arrives. As a result, in June 2021, coronavirus mortality in Russia increased by 14% compared to June 2020.

Rethered by Olga Korelina