Water at the price of bitcoin

Was 85 million Iran on the threshold of mass shocks and a change or a strong transformation of the ruling regime? The probability of this is very great, taking into account the impoverishment and further polarization of Iranian society, mass fatigue of people from the inert theocratic power, which for many years that substantiated the country under the burden of international sanctions and isolation, and the common passions associated with all this.

News, directly or indirectly related to Iran, is becoming more and more this year. The victory of the extremely conservative and dangerous Ibrahim Raisi in the recent presidential election (on August 12 his formal inauguration should take place), the strengthening of Iranian military-political expansion around the world, not only in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon or Yemen, but even in Africa or Latin America, the large-scale military exercises of the Tehran of the Indian Ocean, including With the participation of Russia that scares the West, the news about the beginning of new nuclear developments and at the same time return to negotiations on the 2015 nuclear transaction, and even rumors that the current great Ayatollah and many -year -old Rachbar Ali Hamenie is located on the edge of the grave and are looking for a successor to him .

Now in different Iranian cities and provinces for the third week the next mass protests are growing - and against this background, the West and Israel are put forward a new accusation against Tehran - in a pirate attack on the Mercer Street tanker .

So what is happening in Iran today, how great are the deep anger and fatigue of the people from the ruling regime, how can all end and what will it mean for the outside world - for the Middle East, West, Russia? The political scientist-military person, the observer of the Rosbalt agency, Mikhail Magid , argues about this in an interview with Radio Radio.

-Mass protests, which lasted in Iran around July 15, began in the southwestern province of Khuzestan , inhabited mainly by the Arabs, and were associated with the acute lack of water. Five million local residents were in a difficult situation, who often also call their lands “Arabistan”. But it is known that this remained Iran is rich in both water resources and fertile lands, and this is generally a rarity for the entire near and Middle East. What is such a disaster associated with?

- With several factors that have overlapped each other. Firstly, this summer in Iran, a very high air temperature (over 50 degrees Celsius) lasted for a long time, which is why Karun , which feeds almost the whole country, was the most full-flowing and only navigable Iranian river. But there are other, more important aspects. The leadership of Iran, which is very preoccupied with international sanctions, the inability to earn money normally due to oil export, proceeds to various strange projects of “self -sufficiency”, attempts to develop and finance intensive agriculture to provide people exclusively with their own foods. Therefore, the authorities sharply, right now, began to increase a water intake from Iranian water sources. According to a number of parameters in Iran, the entire water supply system is very ineffective.

Telegram and Clubhouse are very popular social networks in Iran to coordinate protest promotions

And this was also added to the power outages of electricity. As a result, the millionaire city, the capital of the Iranian Khuzestan, in a 50-degree heat simultaneously lost a constant access to the water, and people turned off the electricity, that is, air conditioners. These are not just infrastructure problems, this is a matter of survival. It is not surprising that a real uprising began there.

A typical problem of the entire large Middle East is the unsuccessful use of water resources

A typical problem of the entire Great Middle East is the unsuccessful use of water resources. This was one of the reasons for the current conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia. Even more than 10 years ago, an intensive stake of water from Euphrates in Turkey led to the fact that in Syria the flow of water decreased into this most important river for the region, and as a result, about 1.5 million Syrian farmers went bankrupt. They were forced to go to the cities, filled the quarters of the poor there - and all this was one of the reasons for the Syrian Saura, the Syrian uprising of 2011. The water problem associated with the ineffective use of resources is probably already central to the entire Middle East. And Iran became another confirmation.

- I read that still problems with the power supply in Iran are associated with such an interesting thing: the Corps of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution is now engaged in large -scale earnings of cryptocurrencies, primarily bitcoins, it mines them, in simple language, and therefore the country consumes a lot of energy. And the old power networks do not withstand voltage.

- This is pure truth, while not only the Islamic Revolution Corps (Xirir) , but also some Iranian private companies are engaged in mining of bitcoins. This is due to the same with which the increased water intake from Iranian rivers. Iran lost, because of American sanctions, but even more because of problems associated with its own ineffective management of the economy, access to foreign currency. I lost the opportunity to earn money on oil exports. Therefore, part of the Iranian companies, and above all, the KSIR, which at the same time became the most powerful military-political structure of Iran and the most powerful economic corporation, which belongs to a third of the economy, decided to earn money on mining bitcoins. They really received hundreds of millions of dollars, but the old Iranian power networks are not adapted to this - and the power outages of electricity in many Iranian cities, and in the south, Tehran, and in a number of other places began. And it also, of course, became a factor that caused mass protests.

Mass manifestations in the city of Ahvaz - a photo from Twitter. End of July 2021

- In addition to Khuzestan, the protests covered a number of other regions and provinces in the following days. Demonstrations with criticism of the regime are held not only in the capital of Tehran, but also in Iranian Azerbaijan, in Iranian Kurdistan , there were clashes and manifestations in other provinces. Is there some kind of background related to the position of national minorities? Because, of course, in national areas, especially in the entire Great In the Middle East, always their additional insults and difficulties.

- Of course, this is so. In Iran, along with socio-economic problems, there are very serious national problems. They are associated, first of all, with the lack of local self -government and national autonomy for minorities (the Iranian system is quite rigidly centralized). In many areas, local languages are not taught in schools at all (although in the case of Iranian Azerbaijan the Iranian leadership tried to fix this in 2019, and reluctantly introduced the Azerbaijani language in schools). Now, however, the intensity of passions has aggravated - to a large extent also due to the friendship of Tehran with Moscow. The fact is that only through the Caspian and Iran, due to military-political and geographical reasons, can the Kremlin now organize the military supply of Armenia allied to him, namely, through the Azerbaijani territories, which just fit Armenia.

Only through the Caspian and Iran Kremlin can the military supply of the Armenia allied to him now

And when recently, during the Second Karabakh war there, along these roads, Russian military cargoes went to Yerevan, the population of Iranian Azerbaijan was terribly indignant. People began to block the tracks, even attack these convoys, very massive demonstrations of the Azerbaijani population began under the nationalist, anti -Russian, anti -Armenian and, by the way, even anti -percept slogans. After all, few people remember this, ethnic Azerbaijanis make up a third of the entire population of Iran! And the leadership in Tehran simply cannot really not reckon with this. This is one of the most serious national problems in Iran.

There is another problem associated with Iranian Kurdistan. Kurds in the country about 10 million people are also a very large community. And she has the same problems: the lack of teaching the Kurdish language in Iranian schools, local autonomy. The Kurds also complain that their edges are funded from the central budget, as they say, according to the residual principle. This is a very poor region, and many Kurds are forced to earn a living of smuggling. There are such specific Kurdish porters of Kolbara , who wear illegal loads across the border with Turkey and Iraq, back and forth, earn some money on this and feed their families. Iranian border guards regularly open fire on these people. Over the past month there were several murders. And this, of course, causes an additional very large wrath of the Kurds. Some other regions have other problems. But to understand the current situation in Iran, you need to pay attention, first of all, to a set of problems related to local Kurds and Azerbaijanis.

- In Iran, in June, after all, large strikes in the oil industry began at the same time. Why did such outbreaks of mass discontent of different segments coincide with time? Or is it not a coincidence?

- I think that not a coincidence, but the result of a very deep systemic crisis. Which is connected, firstly, with American sanctions that are very destructive for the Iranian economy, and secondly, with ineffective management of the Iranian economy. In Iran, the share of the public sector is great, which is controlled by bureaucratic methods, here often the privatization of enterprises occur in favor of relatives of officials. And these processes are very opaque. What is happening in the country is also associated with an increase in the discontent of industrial workers, because due to a lack of currency and small revenues, the authorities began to transfer employees of the oil and petrochemical industries into temporary contracts, which sharply worsened their situation. Their salary fell, in some cases, below the subsistence minimum. The result was strikes, in which about 100 thousand non-tuning workers participated for a month.

Since trade unions in Iran are virtually prohibited, or it is very difficult and dangerous to create, the Iranian workers went in a different way

Moreover, since the trade unions in Iran are virtually prohibited, or it is very difficult and dangerous to create them, the Iranian workers went a different path - they created a fairly radical non -union form of the organization. These are elected local working committees that began to coordinate a nationwide strike through the Telegram network, very popular in Iran. Participants in this strike, which lasted a month, demanded to double their salary. This is another factor in internal destabilization in Iran, a socio-class labor movement with economic requirements.

One of the oil refineries in the south of Iran

- It would be very interesting to compare the nature of protest moods in Russia and in Iran. As far as I understand, the Iranians went out into the streets for a long time with the demands of only a socio-economic nature, feeling that the authorities do not give a damn about their difficulties. In Russia from time to time, especially not in Moscow or in St. Petersburg, but in dysfunctional regions, the same thing happens. However, the Russians, embittered by the lack of assistance in fires or floods, poor medical assistance, rising prices, infrastructure collapse, corruption, and so on, almost never put forward radical political requirements at once. And in general, they are afraid to criticize directly the Kremlin. All their anger, at least externally, is directed against local leaders. But in Iran, protests directly and quickly take on a political character. People there frankly require a change of power irremovable to decades. Because the slogans that we see, like the "death of Hamenya!" - This is more than frankly. What do you see the reasons for this difference?

- Such radical slogans in Iran also did not immediately appear. For the first time, they became massive during a serious popular uprising, with the participation of hundreds of thousands of people, in November 2019, when in response to rising fuel prices, people began to overlap vehicles everywhere, and in some cases even set fire to state institutions. It was then that radical political slogans became massive. In addition to the mentioned by you, this is, for example, "Death of the Islamic Republic!" In some cases, people say that they want to live in an ordinary republic, instead of the "Islamic", that is, without a system that is ruled by an unheated higher spiritual leader, which has almost absolute power. People want the usual republican structure of the country and the authorities. But there are monarchical slogans! Some manifestants chant that they want to "return the Iranian Shah." And there are also nationalist slogans in a number of regions, primarily in Iranian Azerbaijan. This politicization is already at least a few years old.

Protests in Khuzestan. The end of July 2021. Screenshot video from social networks

And another important factor: almost all groups of the preserved Iranian opposition, primarily the left-wing-radical Mujahedin-e Hulk , the "folk mujahedins", act mainly in exile. And they do not play at all for some kind of "peaceful protests." In his last statement, Mujahedin-e Hulk directly called the Iranians to the uprising and the formation of the "Liberation Army". Iranian society is much more politicized and much more rigidly and radical than, for example, protests in Russia or in Belarus.

- In the past, official Tehran repeatedly suppressed such performances as now. What will most likely happen this time? Will the regime stand? How, by the way, the authorities respond to protests-rude power immediately or tries to agree and promise something?

- The authorities have just promised, of course, to establish the water supply of Khuzestan, promised that there would no longer be disconnects of electricity. The only question is how much they are able to do all this? It seems that they do not have such opportunities, or there is an opportunity to fix something, but only for a limited time. In fact, the Iranian economic system, infrastructure, Iranian social support systems fall apart. And in these conditions, mass protests are inevitable. Perhaps they will suppress them today. But it seems to me that it is already obvious that the protests will flash every few months, or maybe in a year, but this will be repeated and will be repeated further and will go on increasing.

I do not exclude that in Iran the script will repeat, perhaps resembling Syria. In 2011, the same protests began in Syria, in several cities. The authorities were able to suppress their relatively quickly, but then the society began to swing rapidly, and ordinary people began to repulse the security forces. And over time, what happened in Syria happened, that is, the civil war began. So, in some cases, the Iranians really also repulsed, for example, during the last events in the city of Iza . The locals there entered the shootout with the Iranian police and the Basiji powerful formations supporting power, and there were fights for several nights in a row. Such a Syrian scenario, when society is gradually heating up, comes into conflict with the state, and the situation begins to swing, of course, possible in Iran, especially if the Iranian leadership does not change anything. But this can take several years.

- If the new president of Iran has just become a super -fiber, even cruel, very conservative politician Ibrahim Raisisi, and he seemed to win in competitive, outwardly, elections, then why do not crowds of his supporters go to the streets to confront all these “Buzoters”? This happens in other countries. Well, at least in a cube , where mass excitement began suddenly this summer, by the way, for similar reasons. In Havana, the crowd went to the crowd. And in Iran?

- No, now this is not. In the past, the Iranian authorities carried out all sorts of mass street mobilizers of state employees, including veterans of various conflicts in which Tehran participated. But in recent years, this has not been carried out, or is not carried out on such a scale. Why - it's hard for me to say. Still, the Iranian regime is very closed. But I definitely don’t think that Raisi won the democratic elections - almost all of its competitors were removed from the election campaign. Less than half of the population came to the elections, four million ballots were spoiled. But a lot of multimillion -dollar state employees were mobilized almost by force to vote for Ibrahim Raisi.

- Suppose, in the strategic future, the protest wave will increase. And maybe if you do not shift the current government, then at least it is to sharply weaken it. And in the end, in case of weakening or strong destabilization of the regime in Tehran, what can be the consequences for the entire region?

- The consequences will be not only for the entire Great Middle East. It seems to me that all the political axes of the world will simply be shown. Because Iran is a huge state with a 85 million population. And moreover, this is also an empire. Rights of militia and other forces close to Iran largely control Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen. If this empire begins to collapse or weaken, the political tsunami will arise. И политический вакуум, который постараются заполнить другие государства, например, такая экспансионистская страна, как Турция. Это, конечно, будет грандиозное потрясение! Даже всего лишь серьезное ослабление иранского режима вызовет большие потрясения. С другой стороны, официальный Тегеран может в экстремальной ситуации призвать на помощь иностранные дружественные военные формирования, от ливанской "Хезболлы" до иракских шиитских ополчений, для подавления внутренних беспорядков. Есть намеки на то, что в прошлом уже были такие случаи. А ведь тогда внутренний конфликт сразу перерастет в международный.

Высший руководитель Исламской республики Иран Великий аятолла Али Хаменеи вручает Ибрахиму Раиси президентский мандат. 3 августа 2021 года

– Н еизбежный вопрос: и как это может, в таком случае, повлиять – очевидно, радикально – на интересы России в регионе?

– Напрямую, потому что Россия и Иран тесно сотрудничают в Сирии. Режим Башара Асада существует не только благодаря российской военной поддержке, но и благодаря тому, что его защищают десятки тысяч только что упомянутых проиранских шиитских (но не только) ополченцев. Этот ударный кулак Тегеран собрал со всего мусульманского мира, от Афганистана до Ливана. Если эти люди перестанут получать, например, оружие или финансирование из Ирана, то у Асада возникнет очень серьезная проблема. На севере Сирии до 15 процентов территории страны оккупированы Турцией, и там стоят хорошо обученные и оснащенные протурецкие антиасадовские боевики.

России, если она захочет продолжать поддерживать Асада, придется увеличивать расходы на сирийскую операцию

Вероятно, в этом случае России, если она захочет продолжать поддерживать Асада, придется увеличивать расходы на сирийскую операцию, потому иначе режим в Дамаске Москва не удержит. С еще одной стороны, есть уже упомянутая проблема военного снабжения Россией Армении, которое происходит через территории Иранского Азербайджана. Если Иранский Азербайджан будет очень серьезно дестабилизирован, я вообще не понимаю, как они смогут снабжать оружием Ереван. И наконец, возникнет проблема с независимым государством Азербайджан. На Баку неизбежно повлияют такие события. Все это, конечно, Кремль затрагивает напрямую.

– Как на таком фоне проходят ядерные переговоры между Ираном и США? Насколько их исход, в ту или иную сторону, может повлиять на ситуацию в самом Иране? Особенно если вспомнить, сколько было очередных витков напряженности в американо-иранских отношениях только в самое последнее время? Самое свежее событие – это нападение на японский танкер Mercer Street у берегов Омана. Он вроде как японский, шел под флагом Либерии, но на самом деле принадлежит, конечно, израильскому оператору Zodiac Group. США, Израиль, Великобритания и еще несколько государств твердо заявляют, что за этим нападением стоит Иран.

– Что касается переговоров по ядерной сделке, то они идут. Вашингтон сообщал, что есть "серьезные подвижки" в этих переговорах, хотя результатов пока нет никаких. Возможно, это связано с тем, что в Тегеране ждали инаугурации Ибрахима Раиси. 3 августа Высший руководитель Исламской республики Иран (рахбар) Великий аятолла Али Хаменеи вручил Раиси президентский мандат и утвердил его на этом посту. Это местная церемония "танфиз" (на фарси "утверждение"), и она важнее формальной инаугурации в Меджлисе, намеченной на 12 августа. Так, думаю, Хаменеи изначально хотел новую ядерную сделку заключить при новом президенте, ведь Раиси рассматривается как возможный преемник 82-летнего Хаменеи в будущем.

В целом, что касается ядерной сделки, то есть реальные возможности для Вашингтона и Тегерана к ней вернуться, мотивация с обеих сторон очень серьезна. Это одна из главных целей внешней американской политики при Джо Байдене. С другой стороны, и Ирану иначе не вырваться из тисков санкций, разрушающих его экономику и инфраструктуру. Ему отчаянно необходимы доходы от экспорта нефти. Если Тегеран не сможет заключить ядерную сделку, у него их не будет – а значит, и шансов предотвратить дальнейшие протесты и восстания.

Это долговременный конфликт между Израилем и Ираном. Они периодически атакуют суда друг друга

Что касается нападения на танкер и других подобных инцидентов – это долговременный конфликт между Израилем и Ираном. Они периодически атакуют суда друг друга – правда, до сих пор не было убитых в ходе этих столкновений, в отличие от последнего, когда два человека погибли. Одновременно Израиль совершает авианалеты на Сирию, уничтожая там иранские объекты. В Израиле это называется "война между войнами". Тегеран, например, обвиняет Израиль в 5 убийствах иранских физиков-ядерщиков и заявляет, что некоторые его операции – это просто месть. Хотя нужно отметить, что Иран не признает свою ответственность за нападения на танкеры, а Израиль – свою ответственность за убийства физиков-ядерщиков. Это такая стратегия обоих этих государств. К сожалению, на всем Ближнем Востоке политики часто разговаривают друг с другом на языке силы – и насилия. Это также и в Израиле принято, и в Иране, и в Турции, но это не означает, что потом неизбежно, прямо завтра, между теми или иными государствами разразится война.