Translated material
Afghan fall
A military specialist talks about the triumphal offensive of Taliban* due to the failure of the world diplomacy
The Twelve of August Taliban* took gaps . This is a strategically important city, the Kabul -Kandahar is cut. Governor Daud Lagmani and his associates were detained by government forces on charges of a deliberate surrender to his province to the Taliban. Following this message, the Taliban announced the capture of Kandahar - an unprecedented success, if the information is confirmed. Over the past ten days, the news of the fall of more and more provincial centers falls like from a holey sieve.
Captured
Zarange,
Farah (the governor surrendered to the enemy),
Sari Pul,
Shibargan,
Aybak,
Kunduz,
Tulukan,
Fayzabad,
Bullets-Khumri.
Heavy battles are going on
On the outskirts of herat,
Kandahar,
A significant part of Lashkargakh is already under the control of the Taliban.
Actually fight surrounded
Kalai-nau,
Mazari-Sharif.
At the same time, the withdrawal of the coalition troops, led by the United States, is not even completed.
In the list of captured cities and sequence of captures, political logic is obvious. This is not a game of chance. In the north of Afghanistan, the “Caravans of the UBEDA” (God's slaves) - the combined forces of the Taliban and international terrorist organizations operate. They cut off the north of the country from the capital, paralyzed the North Alliance, and for them it was a reasonable calculation.
By and large, today the fluff and feathers remained from the Northern Alliance.
His leaders, proved the Americans for 20 years that they were the main fighters with the Taliban, received a lot of money during this time. But in the real battlefield, they turned out to be worthless fighters.
Today, the Taliban play the contradictions between the leaders and the population of the neighboring provinces of Parvan and Panjsher, which will turn into a big trouble for Afghanistan. At one time, Panjsher was allocated from Parvan into a separate province. His murdered leader Ahmad Shah Masud was a leading field commander of the Islamic Society of Afghanistan, one of the seven Sunni armed groups of Mujahideen.
Earlier, their inhabitants jointly fought as part of the anti -Soviet jihad. On the territory of Parvan, the largest Bagram air base built by the USSR is located. Residents of the so -called Southern Panjsher, who went to the Islamic Party of Afghanistan Gulbeddin Hekmatiara, blocked A.Sh. Masuda on Bagram.
20 years have passed. And all the money, weapons and rewards from the coalition, led by the United States, received Panjsher leaders. And they did not share with the Parvanians. And over the years, there were contradictions between the Tajiks of the two provinces and constant squabbles, including a political nature.
For example, if the Parvans followed Hamida Karzai or Ashraf Gani, then the Panjshers, on the contrary, in the peak of the Parvans - to another leader, Abdulle Abdullah. These frictions could not but take advantage of the movement of the Taliban, which finds traditional disagreements between tribes and communities and actively involves such contradictions in their interests. A particularly striking example is the county of Spinbuldak in the province of Kandahar. And for the current Afghan authorities, and for their NATO cartridges, for some reason, this kind of work was not conducted, although Kabul traditionally used such mechanisms, including during the Soviet military presence.
Now the Parvans are inclined to support the Taliban and thereby intend to annoy the neighbors, including the blockade of Panjsher from the western direction. From the south-east, from the side of the Davlatsh of the province of Lagman Taliba, Panjsher had already blocked. As a result, it is planned to conquer the last stronghold of the Northern Alliance. Its rest in the panjser is surrounded. The Americans transferred to Ahmad - the son of A.Sh. Masuda is a lot of weapons. Now all of it has already been captured by the "Caravans of the UBeid."
The administrative center of Parvana is the city of Charikar. From him to the south there is a direct road to Kabul. In this direction, in connection with the cooperation of the leaders of the province with the Taliban, a critical situation for the Afghan capital and for the sustainability of the entire Afghan political regime may develop in the near future.
We draw attention to the fact that active hostilities are not conducted in the east and southeast of the country-in Kunar, Nangarhara, Logar, Pactia, host, pact. Just for the Taliban, the capture of these provinces is a much easier task. They focused on the destruction of the "Northern Alliance", as a force capable of opposing them. And they solved this problem.
In the west of Afghanistan, political logic is also visible in all captures.
Seventy -five years between Iran and Afghanistan is a struggle for the distribution of water from Afghanistan to the territory of Iran of rivers.
The Gilmain river provides the largest drain, which provides water by Iranian Sistan and Belujistan, very arid areas. The second most importantly is the Gerirud River flowing next to Herat. The third is the Farahrud river flowing through the headlights. All of them go to Iranian territory.
In 1977, President of Afghanistan M. Daud and Shah Iran M. Pekhlevi signed an agreement to regulate the distribution of these waters. But soon the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the April Revolution in Afghanistan, was struck, and the agreement was not respected. Hamid Karzai, when the Americans made him president of Afghanistan, did nothing to fulfill this agreement.
Further, it turned out that Karzai received a lot of money from Iran for not trying to regulate the stock. This caused a shock in the USA. According to the Gani Ashrab, who changed Karzai, the program on these three rivers began the construction of dams to adjust the drain. It was very important for arid areas in Nimruz, Farah and Herat.
Three months ago, Ashraf Ghani personally arrived in the province of Nimruz for the solemn commissioning of the Kamal Khan dam on the sleeve. A lot was said what large areas will now irrigate. But a month later, as we know, the situation changed dramatically. And I must say that the Iranian special services made a lot of efforts to what is happening these days in the West of Afghanistan. And the basis is also the water question.
A month ago, the Taliban delegation visited Tehran and the necessary agreements were reached.
The first without a fight surrendered the province of Nimruz. Although before that, two battalions of the border troops in the county of the Kang north of Zaranha tried to give the Taliban a rebuff. Only after weekly battles, when the Taliban entered the territory of Iran, the county was captured.
Further, the militants blocked the only highway connecting the zarang with the rest of the country. With a fright from the city in the direction of the Iranian checkpoint, the leadership of the province fled, followed by a police battalion, and behind them the entire population. On the checkpoint, Iran immediately arrived at the checkpoint immediately!
In fact, the Iranians have long been extremely arrogant to the Afghans. But this time, the Iranian general began to calm the people, communicate with the children, smiled a lot and took pictures. Of course, this living “piano in the bushes” played a role. The Taliban entered the empty city only after three hours. The next day, they hurried to Kamal Khan on the dam and opened it, letting water in unregulated regime on Iranian territory.
One of the achievements of Ashraf Gani is also an agreement with India on the transit of goods through the Iranian port of Chabahar. The interest of Pakistan in the West of Afghanistan was also in the rupture of this transit line, unprofitable Islamabad. And he achieved this.
But the dams on the rivers are more important, they became a symbol of new Afghan statehood, independent policy. It is known how Central Asia relate to water - as a living source.
Damen really work on the Afghan economy, and none of the country's leaders can encroach on them. The Taliban attempt precisely on the symbols of Afghan sovereignty and statehood.
If we consider the most important objects located in recently captured territories, then these are primarily roads. The road is blocked from Mazari-Sharif on Puli-Khumri and further to Kabul. According to yesterday, travel for civilians is open. But state columns can now be held only with enhanced security, accompanied by helicopters.
The highways from Mazari-Sharif to the west, towards Shipybragan, and to the east, towards Kunduz, are also blocked by the Taliban. The authorities are not able to supply the remnants of their forces in Badakhshan, in the valley of the Farhar River. The only road for supply in the northeast remained the Puli-Khumri-Kunduz highway. But at the junction of the borders of the provinces of Tahar and Baglan, ISIS grouping has long been established (the organization was recognized as terrorist in Russia), and Bagglan’s leaders were dissatisfied with the actions of the government. So this road, which is of great importance for the food supply and safety of the region, is also blocked after the bullet-Khumri fall.
The most severe consequences will cause the capture of Kunduz airports armed with opposition - yesterday the remnants of government troops at the airport - and Fayzabada surrendered.
August 11 in the evening A. Gani and A.R. Postums arrived in Mazari-Sharif and held a number of meetings and meetings to strengthen the defense of the city and district. It is very important to keep the port of Hayraton under control. Measures are planned to free the most painful points - Kunduz and Shibergan.
According to my estimates, until August 11 the situation was not a catastrophic nature, under Nadzhibulla it was no better. But today the situation is already worse than then. This is due to the loss of the airport and the city of Kunduz, Puli-Khumri, Aybak and Shibergan. The President of Najibullah controlled these administrative centers, and the highway through the Salang Pass allowed to carry out columns with cargo after the withdrawal of the Soviet troops. The provinces of Farah and Nimruz in the southwest under Nadzhibulla, as part of the national reconciliation policy, were generally considered the “provinces of the world”-the operational efforts of our and Afghan intelligence services were ensured by the ceasefire, and combat operations were not conducted. The current Afghan government does not even know what it is - the "provinces of the world."
There are no settlements and counties that were captured exclusively by the forces of the terrorist organizations Al-Qaeda and ISIS, in Afghanistan. After the signing in Doha on February 29, 2020, the “Act on unconditional surrender of the United States, NATO and the UN in front of the Taliban”, as I call it, “Caravans Ubaida” were formed - the combined detachments of famous terrorist organizations with the Taliban.
All armed operations in Afghanistan have been going on with direct participation of foreign terrorist groups in recent months.
But after the seizure of power in the region, he is given to the control of the Taliban governors and field commanders. They know better people, do not commit barbarian acts that go beyond the scope of the Afghans' ideas about the norm, therefore they do not cause wild allergies among the local population. However, there is an exception: five border counters of Badakhshan along the Panj River after capture were given to the management of the Jamaat-Ansarulla group (the organization was recognized as terrorist in Russia).
It is called the Tajik branch of Al-Qaeda, led by Mahdi Arslan. His real name Sharipov, he comes from the east of Tajikistan. This section of the border, inhabited by Tajiks, is not interesting to the Taliban. But he is extremely interesting to the Tajik branch of al-Qaeda. They take their barbaric acts on the video and post on the Internet. And this is the subject of great concern of the Tajik authorities.
It is possible that such a transfer to the management of terrorists of individual regions in the future will continue in some places.
The Indian branch of Al-Qaeda, who actively participated in the Civil War in Syria, represented by the Native speakers of the Indian Languages, fighters from India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Philippines, objectively cannot claim administrative administrative management in Afghanistan. They will be content with the opportunity to create their bases, training camps here. From here they can be directed already to a variety of areas of the world - to Libya, Syria, Central Asia, then according to the list.
In the Islamic State - Khorasan a very significant number of militants from local residents. They have an appetite to rule some counties. But according to my information, there are no such plans yet. Now all the terrorists have focused on the overthrow of the central government and the creation of their bases in Afghanistan under the cover of the Taliban flag.
The most acute question today is that there are generally real negotiations with the Taliban about the fate of the country? Agreements with Taliban in Doha testify to the collapse of all world diplomacy on the Afghan problem. As a fish in a bucket, world diplomacy is still trying to do something, we read about this in the news from the Doha, where the negotiation process is supposedly comes. After all, the headquarters of NATO, and the European Union, and even the exotic in such matters, are participating here. Türkiye, Russia, and China strive to participate in negotiations. We are observing the fiasco of world diplomacy, and this should be said openly. It was thanks to the toothlessness of the participants of the so-called “negotiation process” that the current military-political picture in Afghanistan was formed, this was a foregone conclusion. It was necessary to initially build their position, realizing that any agreements are determined by the position on the battlefield, and not in foreign resorts.
The offensive of the Taliban and the territorial captures of the last week are approaching the catastrophe of the regime. Therefore, I will say not without reason: there were signs of a revision of the position in the most important departments of the United States. An internal discussion is resumed about returning to Afghanistan.
We do not know how firmly Joseph Biden himself and his closest associates are committed to a decision on the complete and speedy withdrawal of US troops. We remember that Jens Stoltenberg and responsible NATO ranks objected to such a hasty conclusion. They even opposed the agreements in Doha, as they established a clear date of withdrawal of all foreign troops.
The UK was also against the UK. Only Germany clearly stated that there would be no return. Although a month ago she held a position in joint with Great Britain. There were no deep contradictions in NATO, of course, but there were differences in the views on the withdrawal of the troops. Such active participants in the coalition as France and Italy are still silent.
As for the chief participant - the USA, the Pentagon always opposed negotiations in Doha. And the first six rounds passed secretly from Ashraf Gani and Pentagon. The US State Department of the United States was then the leader in world diplomacy.
The specialized consultant of the State Department Zalmai Halilzad was negotiating Afghanistan, but he was not a military man, he did not serve in the army and he was poorly sorted out in the problems of armed struggle with the rebels. He discussed with Taliban such issues that were absolutely unacceptable to the Pentagon. It was all under D. Trump. Finally, they decided that the Pentagon representatives would not participate in the negotiations, but they should be present.
The Pentagon also opposed the decision of J. Biden on the accelerated withdrawal of the entire contingent. Austin Scott Miller, commander of the international coalition forces in Afghanistan, after the final decision of J. Biden, publicly resigned on the same day: the White House decisions did not join in any way with the real situation in Afghanistan. For such an act, the administration of J. Biden fired the general from military service on the same day.
J. Bayden himself took a direct part in the development of politics on the Afghan problem, being the head of the Senate International Affairs Committee for many years. Given this, I consider the current development of the situation a sign of degradation of foreign policy, at least in Central Asia. She took place both in the White House and in the State Department.
Despite all the obvious disadvantages, the Pentagon approached his mission in Afghanistan more responsibly.
And historians will not forget that the commissioning of troops into Afghanistan is not a decision of the military, but politicians. It is obvious that it was precisely because all decisions were made without taking into account the opinion of the Pentagon, the US military behaved for the past two months as the whole world has seen.
The withdrawal of troops, as the head of the SVR S.E. Naryshkin, took the flight features. And this reflects the position of the American generals: "You decided everything without us - we wash your hands!" Without a preliminary notification of the Afghan allies, bases with military equipment, weapons warehouses were thrown, all this to the Talibans simply fell from the sky. At night, the headquarters of the NATO and the CIA mission in the Green Zone, in the very center of Kabul, and again without notifying the Afghan authorities were hastily thrown.
All these circumstances and messages that I receive from a wide variety of sources leave the feeling that the NATO headquarters discussed the issue of returning to Afghanistan at least in terms of supporting assault aircraft. Предполагаю, что в скором времени мы станем тому свидетелями.
Василий Кравцов,
Автор — кандидат политических наук, в 2016–2018 гг. - The first secretary of the Russian Embassy in Kabul, in 2019 - senior political adviser to the UN Mission in Afghanistan.