Transit through the war

The institutional impasse, into which the Kremlin drove itself, making the replacement of power through the elections, can be resolved through a military conflict, according to political scientist Gleb Pavlovsky

Gleb Pavlovsky fears that the institutional impasse will force the Kremlin to start a war and thus solve the problem of transit of power.
Photo Newsrussia.media

Two summers ago, I published in the journal “The New Time” a guipoteus replica about the global purposes of Russian transit of power. The globalness of the Russian Federation is not in the area of the land between the three oceans, but in the planetary context of changes in it. Russians have nothing to dream of the comfort of small states. Small is Beautiful, but Russia did not find a way to the beauty of the small. The transit of the regime here acquires a continental scale and load. Each time we are talking about something more than only the national transformation-this is a planetary spit with the beginning of the country again.

In the last article, I interpreted the Global behavior of the Kremlin in the walking transit of power. Today it's time to talk about the riskiness of his global phase. Transit radicalized the system, blocking the chance to conduct it as an internal process. Since the transition is accelerated and not notable, superior force drives the Russian Federation to the final.

I wrote that hopes for a controlled transit of power became a trap of strategists. In the nineties, the “successor” for the sake of, the Kremlin built a temporary circuit of the rule by media policy - and immediately fell under its power. But it seemed that the task of transit was solved. Today I think that even then, in 1999, the project to give rise to the successor Yeltsin as part of domestic politics was an illusion. In article 2019, I suggested that the transit of the Russian Federation from regional statehood to the global Platform of Influence is coming, claiming that this is not Putin’s personal whim, but the originality of the Nation Building of Russia. What can I tell me today?

Globalistic restructuring

Has the transit of the authorities ceased when a comic norm was inserted into the Constitution, which deriving a single person out of the basic law? Transit only accelerated.

In January 2020, Putin tried to initiatively saddle transit. Pandemia came and laughed at his plans, but then helped them. The pandemic was sealed by the Kremlin mass base, for which there is no other future again, as soon as survive. The new extraordinary does not need to be invented, the decision is prompted by circumstances. Entering the system, Covid 19 connected with the authorities into the non-failure social strain of the sanitary-police regime. The frightening repressive jumps of the system are attributed to Putin, but he is not able to restrain them or authorize.

After the spring military alarm in the Donbass, it is no longer necessary to convince that in Russia there was a machine of global escalations. She is rebuilt and ready for new launches. Its shares turn the world order into a landfill of waste toxic special operations.

The notorious arrangement of the "world role of Russia" is contrary even to the ordering of the authoritarian regime. Instead of the state order, cramps of state of state. Military-siblovo displaces the managerial. Globalistic perestroika easily sets the ways to intervene in other people's affairs, to break not to build. Here is the decisive difference from the transit of Yeltsin -Putin. In 1999, to simplify the task of succession, the Kremlin refused to interrupt to intervene in Yugoslavia - and passed Milosevich . Today in the Kremlin they seem to be looking for how to complicate transit, and he loses the domestic political character. The equity holders of the transit were Beijing, the cunning madman Lukashenko, the Afghan Taliban also joined - and everyone turned up by the Kremlin. But transit goes.

The Kremlin was bogged down in the plexus of foreign special operations and the “mole Nice” established for this. It is impossible to depict such a toxic network by the place of the Russian Federation in the future world order. The country whose state borders are recognized as seven states of 200 (Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, DPRK (North Korea), Syria, Sudan, Afghanistan; among them - not a single great power) is difficult to count on the inclusion in the future world order. Transit on the “last mile” requires martial law to initiate.

The state channels are full of isolationist cod about “Russophobia”, but inside it is heard a military Esperanto. Marshal Shoigu leads EP to the State Duma with the memory of Karadzhich and Miloshevich. Generals draw future fronts, still not being able to occupy the territories. The occupation collapse in the Donbass - the ghetto of expensive growing. The theft of Ukrainian coal does not cover the costs of the republics of the sediment.

Even the Institute of Russian Citizenship (after the once indestructible institution of presidency) befell the same trouble: arbitrariness. The issuance of passports to anyone who does not speak in Ukrainian is a process that resumes the Russians. The system function is not Russian-it is a cosmopoline hooligan, a ghhlyak rapist.

The Kremlin talks a lot about the global interests of Russia. But as soon as they must be formulated, as before the summit with Bayden, everything is drowning in the irresponsible idle talk strategy.

Why fight the system?

Moscow accelerates exockene in any place of the planet - the city and lands of Russia are turned into boxes of its gears. So in St. Petersburg there was a figure of the Night Porter of Beglov - embodied incompetence under the protection of the National Guard from the townspeople. We can talk about the crisis reconstruction of Russia of world fields. Previously, it was thought that at such an expensive cost of the Russian Federation Krivo-Coos would still come to the tasks of National Building. Today I assume that the Russian phenomenon carries a war as a processor, War Inside.

The Russian community still relies on a peaceful life without war, as something guaranteed. But her amorphous pacifism is not of Kantian nature. These are the remains of pacifism of perestroika and a protracted non -enlightened pause in global policy. The Russian Federation could squeeze more from a short -lived American unipolarity, in relation to Russia, it turned out to be a quiet hour. Moscow did not use its chance at least like smuggling Montenegro monetized the blockade of Yugoslavia.

The system of the Russian Federation, whose globality requires international confirmation has turned into a generator of the second centric conflict of transit through the war.

Take a look at the April crisis of 2021 - the authorities are introducing itself into irrevocability and demands to accept its challenge. In this case, a catastrophic expectation that arises in the West is our method of projection of force. Moscow expects to get away from the decisive test of strength, theatrical of a ambiguous result and interpreting it as a victory. But will she succeed in? The Kremlin was flooded with the resources of a peaceful pause (it is also the "era of stability"). Today, a radical duel is a mainstream supported on both sides, from the western no less Moscow.

The Russian system transformed itself into a global multi -purpose weapon, uninterated into any world order. Behind the military horizon of events, the globality will acquire an unknown modus, or will be discontinued.

It is useless to count on someone's peace here.

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Mikhail Gifter warned that Russia, which did not become a national state, would "blow up the world." Putin would object to Gifter - yes, but is it not the secret of my world power? He will blow up if he wants - and does not want and does not blow up! Fear and wait for news from Moscow.