Hiking to the west - 2021

The large-scale Russian-Belarusian strategic military exercises ended. What's new except combat robots? A military expert tells

The “West 2021” exercises ended with a grand “main stage” at the Mulino training ground in the Nizhny Novgorod region with tanks, airborne troops and abundant pyrotechnics in the presence of President Vladimir Putin. A battalion of Belarusian motorized rifles with equipment (400 people), as well as symbolic contingents from Armenia, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia, was brought to Mulino. Representatives of Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. There were many journalists, domestic and foreign in Mulino. There were observers from different countries - mostly a military attache accredited in Moscow. But not a single representative of the diplomatic corps of NATO countries was invited to Mulino - only European “neutrals” from Austria, Serbia, Finland, Switzerland and Sweden. This emphasizes the unfriendly gesture, openly contradicting the current Vienna document of the OSCE, unpleasantly struck the diplomats accredited in Moscow and once again emphasized how frankly undisguised enemies became openly undisguised.

During the exercises of the West 2021, according to the statement of the deputy minister of defense Tatyana Shevtsova, an “innovative system of financial support for the army in wartime” was tested. In cooperation with the territorial bodies of the Federal Treasury, field institutions of the Bank of Russia and commercial banks, the system should provide personnel with payments in various conditions, "both in Russian rubles and in foreign currency." This is a very serious measure to prepare for real military operations.

And in the West now they are wondering what currency is being prepared for payments, that is, where the Russian troops will go: will euros or Norwegian crowns, Polish zlotys, dollars and pounds, or nevertheless hryvnias and Belarusian rubles?

As they say, follow the money (“track money”) to understand the true intentions.

Mulino is a garrison city, additionally rebuilt by the Germans according to the plan for the withdrawal of troops from the former GDR, with a landfill and dysbath. In 2014, a contract for 100 million euros was signed with the German company Rheinmetall AG for the construction of the most modern computerized training ground in Russia-the Center for Learning of the Ground Forces. But because of the Crimea, Donbass and sanctions, everything was canceled, and many combat parts and formations, including the regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, were taken from Mulino to the Voronezh region to the Ukrainian border.

In the final phase “West 2021” at the Mulinsky training ground, all flying, crawling and shooting weapons, including drones and other modern targets of target designation, were used. But most of all, the public was struck by the report that in the combat forms of combined arms units first appeared robots of intelligence and fire support “Uran-9” and “Nerekhta”, as well as Robotized Uranus Marking complexes .

The intelligence-attended Israeli and American drones have been produced in military affairs in military affairs in the past 30 years, excluding almost completely traditional aircraft reconnaissance. Other countries are trying to keep up with leaders, but Russia, in particular, does not yet work out. That is, there are many publications about new absolutely wonderful domestic intelligence and attendant drones, which are about to dominate the battlefield, but there is still no further samples or small series. And with the reliability of the problem, and with the creation of a combat second centric system, tracking, reconnaissance, control and computer modeling, without which it is impossible to effectively use the capabilities of modern drones, also difficulties. The exact index of serious problems: in the Russian Federation they not only continue to produce a reliable and well-deserved and well-deserved year ago and set by many third world countries the Israeli Drone “Expost” (Sercher-2), but they made and purchase the localized version of the “outpost-r”, converted from a purely intelligence-attendant, even flight characteristics (lifting capacity) of Sercher-2 for this. Low -acted.

The reason for the problems is elementary: without access to modern Western technologies, components, to the elemental base and materials, in the forced sanctions auto Autarchy, the wreckage of the former Soviet military -industrial complex is not able, with rare exceptions, serial and reliable technology.

The rearmament of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in recent years is mostly due to the modernization of Soviet tanks, aircraft and other things, through the use of old technological backlogs. And then suddenly such a breakthrough - real combat robots.

But the television -controlled tanks were made in the USSR in the thirties, but they considered a useless thing. The Nazis really used remotely controlled wedges, in particular in city battles, when suppressing the Warsaw uprising of 1944. The Israeli IDF seemed to use combat ground drones during surgery in the casting lead gas in 2008-2009. Russian combat "robots" seemed to be used in Syria, we must also think in urban battles. That is, combat ground "robots" - weapons, in principle, are not new and specific, for special tasks. It does not seem that they themselves could significantly change the alignment of forces in a combined arms battle. There is no need to expect a revolution in military affairs from them. Fighting remotely controlled ground "robots" on demonstrations in Mulino - in fact, pure PR. Say, if there are problems with flying drones, then here is another Wunderwaffe - rejoice.

Since the “West” exercises are traditionally held in conjunction with Belarus, it happened earlier that Putin together Alexander Lukashenko jointly closed the studies at the same training ground, but not this time. Lukashenko, together with the Deputy Minister of Defense, General Yunus-Byk Evkurov, watched the joint indicative educational battle of the Belarusian and Russian military at the Vecuz-Lesnovsky training ground, not far from the Baranovichi in Western Belarus, more than a thousand kilometers from Mulin. Pyrotechnics and smoke in Obiz-Lesnovsky were older than in Mulino, there were neither combat "robots" nor foreigners. That is, Lukashenko invited everyone, including NATO countries, and then complained:

“They didn’t come specifically, this is such a shallow position, a crazy position.”

Lukashenko’s regime always relied on the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB, and the army and military expenses consistently reduced. The recruiting Belarusian army of peacetime is very small: 16,500 people, only two full -fledged mechanized brigades and two more abbreviated (cropped). The forces of special operations have 6,000 people and three brigades: landing, landing and scraping and special forces. But in the internal troops there are as many as six brigades, of which one is special forces. It was they who, together with the local KGB, defeated the opposition and dispersed the protests after the presidential election on August 9, 2020. The army was not even attracted.

The defense of Belarus is built on a mobilization-militant principle: more than 300,000 prepared reservists should strengthen the small draft army of peacetime, of which 120,000 are militias of territorial defense. So cheaper comes out.

But now it is dangerous to carry out any significant mobilization of Lukashenko-this means distributing weapons to people, where at least half he hates a dictator.

Lukashenko’s regime is now frankly weak, insolvent financially, economically, politically, in the military sense and is less and less interesting to anyone.

Belarus inherited the Soviet mobilization system along with weapons and with built -in weaknesses. And in the Russian Federation, for more than 10 years of reforms, a completely different regular army has been created - the largest in Europe - capable of quickly starting and fighting in conflicts of any level almost without reservists. In the army, more than 130 pre -formed and combatguard tactical battalion groups. It was this army of the new system that demonstrated to Putin and journalists in Mulino. The scope of "West-2021" is impressive. According to official information, almost 200 thousand people, 80 aircraft and helicopters, 15 ships, 290 tanks, rocket systems of salvo fire, etc. participate in maneuvers.

But “West 2021” is only the most crucial, and by no means the most significant military event of the 21st year.

In March-April, the 21st during the so-called “control verification of combat readiness”, according to the head of the General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, “more than 300 thousand military personnel, 35 thousand weapons, military and special equipment, 180 ships and boats, as well as about 900 aircraft were involved. Judging by the executive list of the involved technology presented by Gerasimov, it really was much “more than 300 thousand” there. Almost without any PR, the part and the units of the regular armed forces advanced to the borders of application to the borders: mainly to Ukrainian, but not only. Then, over the summer, the groups slowly moved away in order to gather in a fist in the West 2021 again in a smaller number. But now autumn has come, and an inevitable thaw will come with it, when large -scale maneuverable military operations are difficult outside the roads with a hard coating on the Great Russian Plain.

This is the main good news: there seems to be not a big war in 2021. Ski and shootings in the Donbass do not count.

Gerasimov and Shevtsov’s parrots thoroughly, but let go. And they did not give the currency to the personnel, except for the 2500 that went to Lukashenko - Belarusian rubles. Maybe this is such a cunning military-political game: some scare the poor Europeans, others then offer to agree in a good way. But for some reason, neither blackmail nor the story about hypersonic weapons do not work. That is, the West is scared, but does not give up. It remains to increase bets, which means there is a risk of playing to a big trouble. Our risk is regular, but not eternal.