The revolution did not happen. Alexander Ryklin - about the sovereign Duma

The electoral revolution did not happen. On the morning of September 20, the State Duma after processing 80 % of the ballots confidently won the United Russia after processing. According to the CEC , during the vote according to the lists, the party of power is gaining almost 50%of the vote, the Communist Party of the Communist Party - about 20%, the LDPR - 7.7%, “fair Russia - for truth” - a little more than 7%, “new people” - less than 6%. Voting in single -mandate districts gave a similar picture. United Russia wins in 196 of 225 districts, the Communist Party is the lead in 15 districts, “fair Russia - for the truth” - in 7. According to preliminary results, the LDPR, the Yabloko party, the Rodina party, the Growth Party and the Civil Platform may go.

The current result of United Russia is a little worse or a little better than five years ago, but in any case it seems that in the new Duma she will be able to preserve the constitutional majority. 300 mandates, it seems, will somehow scrape. Apparently, the brainchild of the deputy head of the Kremlin administration Sergei Kiriyenko, the New People party will be able to form a faction, at least while it overcomes a 5 percent barrier. The apple party performed noticeably weaker than expectations. Most experts, although they did not predict her hit the lower house of parliament, but agreed that the result of the oldest democratic party would balance in the region of 3%. That is, the possibility of the “apple” would achieve state financing, but this was not destined to come true.

Of the most noticeable intrigues of last night - the lack of electronic voting results in Moscow until the morning, while in all regions where this experiment was held, they were published on the evening of September 19. Given that in Moscow, almost two million people preferred this form of will, the result of remote voting could seriously adjust the final result. Based on the results of electronic voting in other regions, it can be assumed that this adjustment will be in favor of United Russia.

The most powerful attack on the Smart Voting, apparently, played a role. At least this can be judged by preliminary voting results in single -mandate districts. However, the level of falsifications in the past elections was such that there is nothing to be surprised especially.
According to most independent observers and observers, the elections of 2021 became almost the dirtiest throughout the Putin era. The authorities demonstrated to society actually the entire arsenal of falsifications. “Carousels”, inaccessible to plots and candidates and observers, braids of ballots, “titles” in the sites, disconnecting cameras of video surveillance - these characteristic signs of the Russian elections were distinctly observed. Given the preliminary stage of this electoral cycle, the overall picture of the past elections was drawn, it is quite distinct.

Already now, many commentators are wondering: what actually caused the election hysteria of the authorities? After all, neither polls nor experts during the past election campaign promised the Kremlin some insoluble electoral problems. They did not happen. Why did you need a fierce struggle with a “smart vote”, criminal cases against objectionable politicians and squeezing out the opposition leaders from the country, a power response to any civil activity? Previously, in the election time, the presidential administration tried to create the illusion of a working civil society, calmly preparing for an important democratic event. The security forces were asked not to wrap up for some time, propagandists-to moderate their ardor and stay within the framework of decency. But now everything is exactly the opposite.

Any authoritarian (and even more so dictatorial) regime ages with its leader. Over time, the powerful structure is gradually loosening, and turbulence inside it increases. The periodic shuffling of the governor’s corps or the sudden mass resignation of the generals are associated with this factor. It seems to the ruler to constantly feed the entire state organism, as they say, "fresh blood", not to give a swamp to stagnant. Many experts are sure that the presidential administration no longer plays a decisive role in the formation of the country's domestic policy: they say, people in uniform from the FSB specialized departments were replaced, and these guys, as you know, have different methods.

Putin will need universal mobilization around the entire perimeter of the state structure

It is important to understand that this did not happen in itself, at the top of the power pyramid, they considered that new times demand other approaches. Hence the trend for general tightening. However, any elected epic has another significant layer, regional. Elections are always an elite look. In a situation of instability of the provincial princes and all their servants, it pounds no less than the inhabitants of the high Moscow offices. In the so -called electoral sultanates, this factor clearly manifested itself by the end of the second day of voting. By this time, nine regions exceeded fifty percent indicators of turnout. Only Tuva, Tatarstan and the Kemerovo region were in this list from the Nekavkaz regions, and led with an indicator of more than 70%, of course, Chechnya. It is easy to assume that all these results were simply drawn. Thus, by the end of September 18, the intrigue with voting on party lists resolved. It became clear that if the Communists manage to improve their result of five years ago, then in any case they will not be bought from United Russia a lot of mandates.

There is another and, perhaps, the most important reason why these elections were so important for the current government that it went to the final sterilization of the deputy corps. The new composition of the State Duma will have to approve agreements and agreements between Russia and Belarus. Commenting on the recent round of negotiations with Alexander Lukashenko, which seemed to be exclusively about economic issues, the President of Russia did not accidentally spread the phrase that, perhaps, later we will talk about the creation of a single parliament. Such plans do not yet indicate that Russia is about to absorb Belarus, but it is clear: the creation of a real union state is the most important project of the "late" Vladimir Putin. It is in this way that he is probably going to prolong his power in order to remain in history by the collector of Russian lands, the leader who laid the foundations of the new empire.

Putin will need general mobilization around the entire perimeter of the state structure. A completely emasculated Duma is needed exactly for this - so that from the hunting row to the subordinate population there is no critical assessments or “other points of view”. In conditions of the large -scale state reconstruction, all the details of the bureaucratic mechanism will have to work as a clock, so that no one and the shadows of doubt arise in the prospects of a dazzling triumph. The current electoral cycle is an important stage in the way of achieving the main goal of the reign of Vladimir Putin. It seems that he overcame the next barrier very confidently.

Alexander Ryklin - Moscow journalist

Opinions expressed under the heading "Law" may not reflect the point of view of the editorial office