"Production is not quite clean"

In Russia, 50 percent vaccination will be achieved at best in a year, according to a specialist in statistics, the analyst of the Watching Covid-2019 community Viktor Kabanov

- Victor, what data do you use to analyze vaccination?

- I collect data on the use of vaccines from open sources, mainly these are publications in the local press. There is no point in distorting something to the local authorities, especially towards underestimation, because the center knows where how many vaccines are received. In addition, I talk to those who are directly related to the production of vaccines. True, data from them are most often confidential. But thanks to this, for example, I managed to find out that the second component of the “satellite V” is more capricious in production, it is worse. That is, it is more difficult to release in large quantities.

Therefore, by the way, the “satellite of Light”, which is the first dose, is produced one and a half times more than the second dose of “satellite V”.

- That is, in fact, the production of “satellite” is limited precisely by the release of the second dose?

“I think so.” In July, when talking about forced vaccination began, about QR codes and other things, we had a wave of exciting demand for vaccines. But after 3-4 weeks, if you notice, the requirements softened. According to my calculations, this is precisely because people were injected with the first doses, and then they suspected that soon they could not find the same second.

- In the regions where I visited the last six months, I noticed a very sluggish propaganda of vaccination. It may be due to fear that there will not be enough vaccines?

- Yes. They are just afraid that there will be nothing to prick, I'm sure of that.

Whatever they tell us that people do not want to vaccinate, people will do what the boss or TV will tell them with us. They will say to be vaccinated - they will go to vaccinated.

There is a very good resource - gogov.ru , he collects data on vaccination by regions, has never been seen in falsifications, I work tightly with these guys. Now vaccinated at least the first component of 48 million people, 42 million people are completely vaccinated. Moreover, in these data, revaccination is also taken into account, that is, one of these 48 million received vaccinations already again. I, for example. The production of vaccines is stable with us. I especially want to note this: the production of "satellite V" remains practically unchanged since spring. In June, according to data from the regions, there was a stock of about 5 million doses. In July, excitement began - and this was enough for a week. In the last days of September, the pace of vaccines consumption was approximately the same as in early May, when the doctors went on vacation, and the people went, that is, minimal. Therefore, the reserve that is accumulated now is enough for a while, if the vaccination rate does not grow.

- How will we achieve mass vaccination at such a pace?

- If vaccination is promoted by the same pace, then we will reach the level of 50 percent of the population in 246 days.

- I constantly read the promises of manufacturers to build up the release.

- This is a high -tech production. And we need people who own technology. It takes several years to prepare such a specialist. And it would be nice if he had work experience. In addition, the production of a vaccine is an extremely complex biochemical process. He needs very specific reagents. Apparently, to make them in such giant quantities as it should be for mass vaccination, our country turned out to be hard.

- Well, wait. All these initial were known to the creators of the vaccines and those who took up production a year ago, when it all started. How did they plan mass vaccination?

- I generally noticed that most of the news is released in the future of time: we will grow, we will increase and so on. But it does not always work out. Back in April, if I am not mistaken, the news appeared that the “satellite” was ready to produce India. And India could release a lot of vaccine. But the holder of the patent is the Medgamal plant, a division of the Hamale Institute, which means that only its employees have the right to check each batch. Perhaps Medgamal could not then send so many employees to India that they would check everything in place. There is another Laboratorios Richmond enterprise in Argentina, it took up the production of a “satellite”, but mainly a finished product was supplied to Argentina, already in ampoules.

-The incident, due to which the WHO refused to recognize the “satellite”, did not occur in distant Argentina, but in our Ufa , at the factory that Medgamal may well control.

- You know that Russian medicines are practically not supplied abroad.

- Surprisingly, right?

- Do not say. And Russian enterprises have no experience of certification of drugs. As for specifically production in Ufa ... it, as I understand it, is not sterile and environmentally not very clean. It seems that the treatment facilities, as I understand it, are not high quality and the staff of the staff, let’s say, are not sterile enough, they were supposedly changed not every day, but as if every three days.

- Let me quote WHO report . The inspection expressed doubts about the “ * purity of the results of microbiological tests ... During the production and quality control of“ gam-kovid-wak ”, regarding the“ implementation of the program for monitoring the environment * ”, due to“ identified problems with tracking, identification and history of the Gam-Kovid-Wak parties , expressed concerns due to “ * took measures to reduce the risks of cross-infection ”, as well as also Due to the "compliance of the lines of roser and the clothes of operators performing aseptic procedures, the requirements of the guarantee of sterility." *

- It seems to be a trifle, right? But for such production, such little things are significant. Well, what if our medical industry is not used to it ... But this is a very large and modern plant, specially focused on the production of "satellite V". And here I, say, can observe the Medgamal plant every day in Schukin. If you just go around it around, then you will have a question whether it will pass WHO certification.

- We still talked about the “satellite”, which, no matter how someone scolded production and so on, the vaccine is good ...

- Very good. I can confirm both of my experience and the experience of friends. For example, I am vaccinated with a "satellite." He came to his daughter, not knowing that the whole family was already sick there. They were diagnosed the next day. It turned out that her daughter, her husband, and two of my grandchildren, with whom I spent quite a lot of time were sick.

- And did not get sick?

- I did not get sick at all. My peers, who vaccinated, but still fell ill, suffered the disease very easily. That is, the "satellite" really works.

- It works, this is recognized by all the specialists with whom I said, without exception. But there is, for example, the drug "Epivaccoron".

- I call it a "vaccine product."

And I did not find a single one, just not a single publication, where something would say about the effectiveness of "epivaccorons."

- In vain you are so. There were articles in their departmental publications, there were notes in several newspapers.

- It is about efficiency, about epidemiological efficiency, about protectivity, about how much this “vaccine product” protects, I did not see information in any of these publications. There is only information about some antibodies that only the test system of the same manufacturer finds, but it is completely incomprehensible how these antibodies are associated with coronavirus protection.

- I talked a lot about this. But the vaccine is produced, they continue to use it? What are your data on this?

-Once in July, it seems that a good acquaintance calls me directly from a vaccination station in Krasnogorsk near Moscow, reports that they want to replace the “satellite” “Epivaccoro”. I told him: “Do not get grabbing, wait for the“ satellite ”. Two or three weeks later, he grabbed: they brought the "satellite". This case confirms the data that a certain amount of “epivaccorons” in the summer was imported to Moscow and the Moscow region, but very small. The last delivery to Moscow, according to my data, was 40-50 thousand doses. By metropolitan standards, this is a drop in the sea.

- How many doses of Epivaccorons were used in the country as of the end of September?

- This is a secret covered with darkness. According to my estimates based on publications in the local press, the regions received “epivaccorons” about 10% of the number of “satellite”. At the same time, the main consumers in general are vaccines in our country - Moscow and the Moscow region. About 15-17% of the country's population lives in Moscow and the region. And Epivakkoron was transported mainly to remote regions. At first this happened because there were still parties of the “satellite V”, which needed to be transported at a temperature of not higher than –18 degrees. Imagine that they brought him to Yakutia is the largest administrative region in the world, and there is no population density there. How to ensure transportation at –18?

- As far as I know, a check for the transportation of a “satellite” at a temperature in a regular refrigerator of the Gamalei research is finished in winter, and in Yakutia and in the spring there may be natural –18.

- I brought Yakutia for example. Because "Epivaccoron" was delivered mainly to remote regions. As for my attempts to evaluate the production of Epivaccorons, they led to a completely terrible scatter in numbers. From the very beginning of the issue of the party, small, about 30 thousand doses came out. But on September 9, there was a message on the website of the Vector-Billags, where this product is produced: on that day, the production of one and a half million doses-one such party, was registered there. I go to the Roszdravnadzor website, and there is not a single party on September 9. But three parties are registered the day earlier - September 8. Apparently, nevertheless, it was about three parties half a million doses.

- And who are those lucky who will receive it? What regions will it go to?

- The fact is that the information from the regions does without breakdown about which vaccines they received. Analyst Sergei Spilkin, with whom we work together, organized an Internet survey throughout the country, he asks people to fill out a form about which vaccine they were vaccinated, preferably indicating the date, place and number of the series. The data is still received.

But there are practically no messages about Epivakcoron. Apparently, it is supplied completely to bear corners where there is no Internet.

- To where they could not read about her?

- Perhaps there they do not know about the difference between vaccines. Well, they pricked - and pricked. I, too, had never watched this pandemic how to vaccinate, who made a vaccine, it just never occurred to me.

- In St. Petersburg, the Heropharm plant in the summer promised to establish the production of Epivaccorons with millions and millions of doses. Standed?

- On Monday, September 27, I once again launched a check for all vaccines. And then there was no information about the release of Epivakkorons at the Gerofarm plant. And a day later, information appeared that Gerofarm LLC released the first batch of this vaccine product on September 28, two more parties-the 29th. At the same time, the sizes of parties are unknown. Statistically, according to the research that we conduct with Sergey Spilkin, we turn out that we have more data on “Kovivak” than on “Epivaccoron”. Although the "covivaka" is produced even less.

- With Kovivak the situation is incomprehensible, the manufacturer reports that he closed production for modernization.

- About a month ago, the “covivak” really stopped producing. The fact is that for the production of this vaccine you must first grow a huge amount of this virus, then inactivate it, and God forbid it will fly out of the laboratory. To re -build a new huge production with the implementation of all requirements is very, very expensive and long. Therefore, the equipment is really upgraded there. But for me as statistics, this is interesting because the stopping of production made it possible to evaluate the volumes already released. Kovivaka used something about 1% of the total number of doses of all vaccines.

That is, in total, about 90 million doses of vaccines were used in the country, and the “covivak” of them was about a million doses.

This converges on the website of the Chumakov Center itself. Such a vaccine in our conditions is extremely difficult.

- This was known from the very beginning: inactivated vaccines are difficult to produce in such huge quantities as it is required now.

- In addition, the staff of the necessary qualifications is probably not enough. In the center of Chumakov, of course, people are qualified, but they cannot completely stop releasing other vaccines. And these people are simply not enough for such volumes. And then, in order to “grow” the virus, it takes time. That is, they will not start release immediately after installing the equipment.

- Buy Russia imported vaccines, more people would be vaccinated?

- I did not conduct such studies, but if we proceed from general information, then, of course, yes. The more choice, the more the product is consumed. After all, there are people who fundamentally trust only imported drugs. I myself came across a doctor’s recommendation to look for only imported medicine, because there it was very clearly necessary to follow the dosage, and with the Russian counterpart it could not be chosen so accurately. So it is quite natural that

An increase in the vaccine spectrum will lead to an increase in the number of vaccinated. Modern, for example, does not have such strict requirements for storage conditions as the Pfaizer, so buy it, bring it to the country.

- “Satellite” is also exported, although you think that it would be nice for us to have more. How much and to whom do we supply it?

- In the Russian press, information about export volumes is completely absent, but with the help of friends I am tracking English and Spanish-speaking publications. We supply the most “satellite” to Argentina. In this country, there are very serious disagreements between the government and the opposition, so the government is forced to regularly publish reports. In parallel with the study of these reports, I watch data on flights arriving from Argentina. Until now, my data coincided with the reports of their government, only the Argentine government did not report the last supply. In early summer, it turned out that the same dose was delivered to Argentina as in all other countries taken together. If you look at the latest data, then

By the end of September, about 10 million doses of the first component of the “satellite V” and 5.7 million doses - the second were delivered to Argentina.

The last delivery was September 24: 700 thousand doses of the first component and 250 thousand - the second. In the Argentine group, which is engaged in vaccination, messages of this kind are constantly emerging: "Already three months ago I made an injection with the first dose of the" satellite ", when will the second be?"

- It turns out that for export Russia sent only one Argentina 15% of the amount of the vaccine used within the country.

- In total, according to my estimates, 15 million doses took to Argentina, and the same amount to all other countries. That is, in general - a third of what is used with us. And even for export there is a deficiency of the second component. According to my data, the agreement with Argentina provided for three times large deliveries, but in the end they also turned out to be limited by our capabilities to produce the second component.