But the US default should not be under any circumstances. He has never been in American history

October 18 is a term when the United States government will not be able to serve external debt. Currently, it is 28.84 trillion dollars. If you look at the special page on the Internet UsdebtClock.org, you can see how the debt is growing every second. The ceiling of borrowing was set by Congress at the level of $ 28.4 and was technically overcome at the end of July.

Finance Minister Janet L. Yellen warned American legislators (according to the Constitution, Congress allows and determines the ceiling of public debt) about the “catastrophic” consequences of this situation for the American economy - the widespread increase in interest rates on credit cards, car loan, mortgages and at the same time reducing the cost of shares. Payments for social insurance can be delayed, and the army will not know when the next salary comes.

Congress should raise the amount of public debt until December 2022, but due to the traditional opposition of two parties there is still no decision.

Filibster voting

And if the House of Representatives of the Congress has already voted in for, then the Republicans in the Senate persist. On October 6, the third vote was scheduled for 9 days, but the Republicans block the process. Due to the procedural features in the upper house, Republican senators can stop the adoption of the necessary document using the so-called Filibster-intentional obstruction of voting. Taking advantage of their right to speak unhinderedly, members of the minority fraction deliberately delay the debate, their speech continues for hours and even days, they seem to take the ward in the siege - hence the “Filibster”, that is, a flib, a pirate.

The “founding fathers” of America, the authors of the Constitution and the first President George Washington saw in such a procedure the advantage of the Senate (“Steaches that cools passion”)-guarantees that the upper house will not in a hurry adopt important laws for the country. Record filibers can last more than 30 hours. In order to prevent others from vote, the speaker will talk about his childhood, quote the Bible, poison jokes.

To stop the intentional blocking of the Senate, at least 60 votes are required. Democrats do not have them now. In the upper house they have a minimum advantage.

Together with the additional vote of the Vice President Kamaly Harris-only 51. That is, the correct procedural law on increasing the threshold of national debt requires support for 10 Republican senators. But they vote together.

But there are two democrat senators-Joe Manchens from West Virginia and Kirsten Cinema from Arizona-who do not want the White House and Democrats of Congress to change the procedure for bypassing the Filibster. They also oppose the Biden administration reform program, including a tax increase for the richest (with annual income of $ 400 thousand) and at the same time social expenses (care for children and old people, free housing for the poor, etc.), as well as an infrastructure development plan. Republicans against these reforms, the leader of the Senate minority, Mitch MacConnell, calls the Biden and Democrats plan "pushing party socialism." The president has already said that he was ready to discuss a decrease in the cost of reform from $ 3.5 trillion to two. Without moderate democrats, such as Senator Manchin, nothing will be able to accept anything.

It is possible to raise the ceiling of public debt with a simple majority of 51 votes. To do this, go to the procedure for “coordination” of the budget (reconiation), it usually lasts about two weeks. If two parties begin to negotiate right now, then by October 18 they will almost have time.

There is another option to go around the Filibster and achieve a decision by a simple majority. It is called Nuclear Option - a “nuclear option” by analogy with nuclear weapons, as the extreme, radical means of warfare. It can be used by the leader of the majority in the Senate, in this case-a democrat from the state of New York Chuck Schumer, who will raise the question of the order of the meeting and establish a new voting procedure.

That is, in the current seemingly PATA situation there are several ways to solve the problem.

The default should not be ...

... under no circumstances. He has never been in the history of the United States, and the Democrats and Republicans should not allow the collapse of the economy this time. We are talking about acute political bargaining, where both sides do not spare derogatory epithets. But on the finish line you will have to negotiate. Therefore, the US financial markets are relatively calm, notes Newsweek. Interest rates for 10-year treasury bonds-a little less than 1.5%. This indicator is slightly higher than the historical minimum established last year as the Pandemia of the Coronavirus spreads, but it is still lower than at any other time for almost 60 years, tracked by the federal reserve system.

“Already this week, the actions of the Republicans can directly affect your savings and your wallet,” Biden said, warning that a failed vote on Wednesday could cause a shock in the financial markets. “A meteorite is flying to our economy,” the president said. On the eve of the next vote in the Senate, he met with the “Captains of Business”, the general director of the largest companies - Citigroup, Bank of America, Jpmorgan Chase, Nasdaq, etc., to “immediately discuss the limit of duty and destructive consequences for American families, small business and economics, if the unnecessary delay will continue.”

In the traditions of the “large style” of American presidents, Biden said: “The USA is a country that always pays in its bills. We have never allowed defaults. What we pay for, allows us to remain a great nation, provide social benefits for the elderly people and veterans, salaries to brave military personnel ... Republicans not only refuse to carry out their work, they threaten to use power - their strength to prevent us from saving the economy from a catastrophic event. I think, frankly, it is hypocritical, dangerous and shameful. ”

Bayden called on the republican party “stop playing the Russian roulette with the American economy” and agree to vote for raising the ceiling of the debt.

In turn, the leader of the republican minority, Mitch MacConnell, sent a letter to the president in which he stated that he would not refuse to use the Filibaster and that the responsibility for finding a decision is completely on the democrats. McConnell recalled that Baiden himself, being a senator, opposed the increase in the amount of debt during the presidency of George Bush Jr.. “A bicaparty is not a light circuit breaker, which the speaker Pelosi and the leader Schumer can click to take the money and click to spend it,” wrote McConnell. “Within two and a half months, we warned that since your party wants to rule alone, it should also independently resolve the issue of debt.”

The White House stated that the historical link is incorrect, in the cases mentioned, the democrats did not use Filibaster, did not deliberately disrupt the vote. The press secretary of President Jen Psaki convinced the journalists: during the presidency of Trump, the US debt grew by $ 7.8 trillion, and Bayden had “only” by 676 billion. Republicans “spent as drunken sailors” before Biden took office, and thus should be responsible and should not vote.

The senator, the leader of the majority of Chuck Schumer said that the bill raising the ceiling of the debt should lie down on the president’s table for several days, not weeks, and threatened to detain the senators in Washington for the weekend and cancel the upcoming parliamentary holidays, but to adopt the law on the state debt.

October for American civil servants is the most “funny month” when they can be left without a salary or go on a forced vacation.

The first of October, the new financial year begins, and the budget does not have time to accept, due to an acute political confrontation.

In recent years, we are increasingly observing Shatdown-a forced suspension of the federal government due to underfunding. This year, lawmakers managed to accept the program of temporary state funding and postpone the crisis until December. 15 Republican senators agreed to vote “for”. The alignment in the Senate is 65 by 35.

Statistics say that there is a solution. Since 1960, the Congress has constantly raised, temporarily extended or revised the amount of debt-49 times under presidential presidents and 29 times under democrats. “The leaders of the Congress of both parties admitted that this is necessary,” the American Ministry of Finance said in a message on the website. I repeat, in the history of the United States there has never been a default on public debt.

And as if confirming the above, when the material was already ready, the main character of the conflict between Mitch MacConnell made a proposal: the Republicans are ready for a short -term increase in the amount of the debt until December if the democrats indicate the exact amount for which they want to raise the ceiling. Part of the democrats, the democrats rejected this idea, having seen “political games” in it, but then, the media reported, the party leaders called their “temporary victory”. It is reported that it will be accepted. So, default is “transferred” to December.