Chime of prostheses. Gleb Pavlovsky about the New War of the Russian Federation - "Death trap for Russia"

Who did not meet in the pre -Settlement era with mysterious pictures? In the chaos of lines depicting something ordinary: a garden or city street - it was necessary to identify playing foxes, an evil wolf or a spy with a raised collar in a hat. Finding them in the contour figure is not at all easy. Today, the role of contour arabesques is played by current news. Then the president with the Minister of Defense go to Altai to admire the views, and having returned, they launch a military crisis, the most dangerous since the time of the Caribbean. Then the Wagner units breastfeed for the salvation of President Mali from the subjects. Then something else related to the possibility of killing.

For a long time I want to write something about the future, I believe, a close war where the Russian system will get involved. But he put off, because in peacetime the war is fantastic. The reader of Roman Sorokin “Dr. Garin” will thoughtlessly run the bed scenes of heroes, who, after the wars of the 21st century, - one leg for two. Sex in post -war Siberia is accompanied by tinkling prostheses.

Points blur into wars

The system of the Russian Federation has arisen and has been living for 30 years in the war. At the end of perestroika, hot spots of combat conflicts poured on the outskirts of the USSR. Some flared up serious-the Armenian-Azerbaijani war of 1990–93, the civil war in Tajikistan of the 1990s, Ossetian and Georgian-Abkhaz conflict. In the Transnistria, the parties acted exemplary brutally, until General Lebed with his army barbarously suppressed them.

The world was proclaimed, but it did not solve the problems because of which the war arose. The culture of violence flourished and monetized. The training training grounds of hot spots fed shots for future wars. Shamil Basayev played football with severed heads of Georgians in Abkhazia. Among the trenches, couriers with cash bags scurried - aimless wars are paid especially generously.

Minindel Kozyrev came up with the Doctrine of the Near Abroad to serve Russia's ambitions in hot spots, Hell's deposits on Earth. After 1993, when the shooting of the White House replaced the promised re -election of the president, violence became the regalia of the Russian Federation. It is no longer an excess: the rapist enters the elite, and they admire them like Turgenev girls with a military bearing. General of the Sapernaya blades of Rodionov-Tbilisi Alexander Lebed, calling the "elite general", made the Minister of Defense.

The war with the Chechen Republic overturned the situation. Television brought the Caucasian massacre to every house, and after six months of war, Shamil Basayev shook Russia in Budennovsk. The Budyonnovsky terrorist attack opened how to knock out a stomillion country with the help of three to five Kamazov. Basaev led Russia to the wars of the future earlier than Osama Ben Laden did the same with the United States.

The war in Chechnya became shift: the police were sent from the regions to war with the task of growing up and returning faster. The former police ceased to exist: it is very noticeable in the photo of the police before and after Chechnya. Torture, abduction and ransom entered the police standard. Russia was more and more clearly controlled by emergency methods that leaked through the war in the Office. However, the Chechens defeated the police army, and the swan signed surrender in Khasavyurt.

Master and apprentice

The next megatheraracts of Osama Ben Laden and Shamil Basayev gave the authorities of this world the “right” to oncoming atrocities. President Bush converted the “war with terrorism” to Global. He began two wars, did not win a single one and finished the support of “color revolutions”, not one of which gave a democratic nation. But his apprentice-the novice president of Russia-Bush-Ml. He taught a lesson in unilateral policy, extortion of the transaction on his own terms. The cost of the Bushist military shares in Iraq and Afghanistan was the translation of the waybill of the development of the Russian Federation. It would not have occurred to Bush Putin that international lists of the prison countries can be made by personal decree, including Georgia, then Ukraine.

The student went beyond the teacher. An isolated weak Russia requires the role of a guarantor of global safety and dictates the world, rejecting obligations for itself.

President Medvedev proposed to the West to create with Russia the “Unified Euro -Atlantic Safety Space” from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific. President Saakashvili experienced his peace in South Ossetia, and our Euro -Atlantic evaporated. Another era has come - our military man.

Now the "enemy" is placed before the authorities. He is disguised as an internal enemy, in fact he alien is a “stranger”, a foreign agent or a non-human pervert. Excesses of terrorization of the population are recognized as legitimate: the authorities are not afraid of detachment of personnel. She welcomes their sadistic fantasies, finding useful. There is an expansion of torture, secret murders and private violence in the zone of deliberate criminalization.

The system is immersed in the equalization of everything inconvenient to “terrorism” and “extremism”. In the boiling zone of the “War with Terror”, evidence is not needed - the presumption of enmity celebrates the legal rules of the political struggle. War is waged inside, War Inside . Russian policy is affinced with the atmosphere of war and does not want to refuse it.

"Euro Region Donbass"

All wars begin from afar and in the head.

Who will recall that the Donbass was once considered a Euro Region and in 2010 the Euro Region Donbass program was established? The population was twisted on top of the borders, the cross -boundary economy bloomed. Ukrainians went to Russia to work, Russian pensioners bought up housing in Ukraine, where to live cheaper. The Euro Region Donbass included the regions of Rostov, Donetsk and Lugansk-in 2014, it was they who became the animal battlefield. But the Euro Region website is still active, conferences and workshop are held.

It seemed that the war of 2014 in Ukraine had a material occasion - the annexation of Crimea. In fact, that began in the head. Ukrainian revolutionaries occupied the offices of the Kyiv administration in Ukraine, and counter -revolutionaries were captured towards them. In the east of Ukraine, the picture was confused, every office invader believed that he had "taken power." When volunteers, Chechens, reconstructors and Cossacks went into the war, and behind them - Russian tanks, the Euro Region Donbass turned into hell.

Recently, Sergei Karaganov, setting out the idea of ​​the war for resources, was the first to call the territory and the population . People-resources are an ideal marker of the Russian Federation.

In the days of the early states, the "resource" of the population is undeniable. Having captured the prisoners, the ruler of Hurray gained a “resource” of cultivating grain to feed warriors. You can’t build a bad pyramid without a slave population. There is no farmer - there is no state. Today, anywhere except the Russian Federation, a person is not considered a resource. But Sergey Karaganov is right in relation to Russian -type wars. The attitude to the settlement as a resource gives the subtext of Russian wars, where foreign citizens are assigned the role of the invaders of their land.

Once they fought for the territory-now the population is turned into their occupier. The settlements are attracted to the distribution of passports, fantasy identity and a split with neighbors. Why introduce unnecessary fighting forces into the game, when a population in an animal enmity with a neighbor with whom the soul lived in the soul, turns into an invader of the territory? The occupation of land is carried out through the mastery of people-self-capacity-soft.

The absence of troops in the territory does not decrease violence. The Russian world in Donetsk begins with the prospects of “ go to the basement ”, which was reminded by Vladislav Surkov in his “basement interview”. The “to the basement” in the Donbass can strictly warn, and they can beat, mutilate, torture, as a dreamy novel by mankin, a Russian idealist. Nebelly systems of the system allows you to delegate the atrocities of the atrocities to anyone who is happy to fulfill them. In 2014, we saw this in the Donbass, then in the rollers of the Wagnerians, crushing the bones of the Syrian with a sledgehammer.

Bakhchisarai phantom

The attraction of Moscow to Ukraine is the subject of envy of imaginary loss, an absurd feeling, the source of which is difficult to recall today. At first, there was only the envy of the eater of the publicity press to a well -fed life in Ukraine. On the bands of the 1991 hungry newspapers, Ukrainians with the logs of the treasured sausages flaunted. The fact that their treasures are only the remnants of Soviet reserves turned out later, when Ukraine’s independence turned into a state fact.

For 30 years, two countries that could become nations, instead, have a greedy one after another. Kyiv counted the western guests of Moscow, the grief that they were neglected. Russia was lusty at the Crimea, the Golden Bakhchisarai Phantom of Russian classics. But the capture of Crimea unexpectedly turned Russia into a power with unrecognized borders. Dreams that they are recognized over time is a weak calculation. At the beginning of the era of non -recognition of our new borders , not a single great power - even China recognizes the annexation of Crimea, apparently not earlier than invading Taiwan. The era of non -recognition cheered the Russian Weltpolitik, and a large war looks like a means of canceling an unprofitable world order.

The President of Zelensky recently suggested that Russia was preparing for the "full -scale war" with Ukraine, and was angrily challenged by official Moscow. The speeches of Russian and Ukrainian leaders are performive, but there is no reason to reject the thesis of Zelensky. The pathological symmetry of Russia and Ukraine is developing rapidly. The regime of anti -Russian sanctions encourages the vices of the system - radicalization, resentification, thirst for someone else as “its own” and nihilistic global. The actions of Russia are motivated by the desire to change the world rules so much as to remove the issue of the law in general.

Rare performances

Talking about the war as a performance or series is conducted from the Gulf War. Over the years, the sight of the war has become staged. The Russian wars in the Donbass (with the involvement of local statists for bloody entertainment) for a long time ensured Russian TV broadcasting with fresh human. The ratings of news, decorated with flesh of people tormented alive, are held at an excellent level.

The series “The Tremb, Ukrofashism” on Russian television is not just an act of malice of the Kremlin. Transferring to staged televisioneks, the authorities are trapped, from where there is no way out. From a traumatic topic, Ukraine developed in the Kremlin syndrome, around which all thinking about the world is built. This is distinguishable in the speeches of the Minister of Lavrov, requiring Moscow to act “in truth” for Moscow without taking obligations.

The massive, but loose Russia in the post -Soviet space of the scarecrow. Being stronger than each country separately, it cannot realize force in the conflict. In Central Asia, the PRC restrains Russia more efficiently than NATO.

I am not saying that the war will certainly be. I'm talking about the radicalization of a militant state in which the system has been from the day of occurrence.

In the spring of 2021, Russia approached the line, which, with a slightly different course of events, the survivor would recall, tinkling with prostheses. The troops pulled themselves up to the borders of Ukraine, a group was collected in case (unlikely, however) of the intervention of the American forces. Russia dared to fight with the whole world, setting the day and hour of the attack. They wanted to crush the Ukrainian state, but they did not set a strategic goal - what to do with the captured was unclear. Russia could take Kyiv, but why - and what to do later? A business on liquidation requires to go to the maximum country risk for the Russian Federation. The willingness of the authorities is totally risking the whole country is a sign of an experimental state.

There was a strategically war. The war, to which everyone is summed up on the edge, is slowing it down is the strategy of war, and here is its scheme:

“As an intermediate stage, we can enter into a limited war, creating exactly the risk for both, the creation of which we threatened, but without paying together the price in the form of a total war for the enemy’s erroneous judgment” (Thomas Schelling in the “conflict strategy”). For Schelling, the scenario of a limited war was only a technique of departure from the risk of a nuclear war. But such a scenario works only with his persuasiveness - there are few tank maneuvers around the Donbass. Washington needed accurate information that the invasion of Ukraine was really scheduled for a well -known date.

The threat of war is becoming indistinguishable from the very beginning of the war, a preamble to it.

As the pandemic showed, the number of losses of the system is easy to neglect. Against the backdrop of other people's suffering, the population will experience the joy of his survival even more acutely. The horror of the uncertainly possible replaces the world and order to us.

Russian roulette

Today, Russia is fighting in every place in the world where it has leaked. The game with death, known as the “Russian roulette”, entered the state life of Russia. With the capture of Crimea and embezzlement of billions defamed for modernization, the times of Kipling returned for the Russian Federation. You can leave to fight in the Donbass, protecting the cursory president from new ones. Or accompany trains with stolen Ukrainian coal across the border, which is not. But maybe you are nicer than Syria, where Russian troops heroically pull the end of the small Middle Eastern tyrant? There are also military business trips to Sudan, Central Africa, Libya and Venezuela - a dashing guy receives decent money in currency if they do not kill until the pay. The choice - to blow up a half -empty warehouse in the Czech Republic or poison its owner - excites a contemporary, like Caesar Borgia.

Many believe that in the spring of 2021 the Kremlin held a harmless demonstration. The mobilization of the troops seemed to be successful without the use of force (Biden's call, withdrawn from Dardanell of the US Cruiser, the proposal of Zelensky about the meeting). The prejudice of the controllability of world crises gives rise to terrible situations: Russia barely left the need to fight for anything. War is the principle of reality. In the war for the Kremlin, the real position of the country would have found out instead of fantasies about military power. Before us is a Russian roulette again: having heard a click instead of a shot, the hussar shouts: "Victory!" - And it requires more champagne. Biden's call became this click.

Comparing the Black Sea crisis with the Caribbean, exaggerate the handling of those distant events. The human mind accepts an accident as a rule - but Kennedy and Khrushchev did not think so in 1962. Just because we live with you.

The problem is not that war is evil. The highest evil is the war leading the country to liquidation. Russia does not need a war with Ukraine, neither won nor lost, since no national goal is unattainable in such a war. Having postponed the tasks of forsics, the system did not become a national military machine, although the Kremlin runs us methods of military strategy. We will collect the previously practiced special operations of Moscow, including media political attacks, maneuvering personnel and finances, torture and secret killings with seeping into the national systems of the West and East. In total, it will pull on martial law.

The Russian Federation easily enters the wars, intentionally or by accident. The Russian system uses emergency situations generated or thrown. As soon as it was not possible to manage something important-wait for an emergency where the military-strategic format removes the issue of management quality. The power is incompetent in the simplest management of affairs, but is it competent in the war?

Contrary to the clause, the decision to the war was separated from the political decision. At first, the new war of the Russian Federation will be indistinguishable from the development of ordinary special operations. This will be a decision to protect something to anyone-either straightened values, or Donbass. We are not waiting for the “world war”, but by the war-epoch, the war-line is a fatal trap for Russia.