Has your own so that strangers are afraid

The test of anti -recipient weapons was a surprise to everyone and for a long time increased the danger of flights, including Russian cosmonauts

According to the official statement of the new director of NASA Bill Nelson, on the night of Sunday to Monday, the crew of the International Cosmic Station (ISS) took emergency safety measures: the flight management group in Houston received a warning about the unexpected occurrence of a large cloud of fragments in dangerous proximity to the ISS trajectory as a result of the destruction of the old Soviet Cosmos-1408 satellite.

Russian and American astronauts took refuge in the launched devices attached to the ISS, and blocked the hatches of radial modules.

In 1982, in 1982, as part of the Zelevnia radio engineering program, the satellite has long been disabled. Its destruction in orbit took place as part of the tests of Russian anti -satellite weapons. The Russian Ministry of Defense officially confirmed this on the afternoon of November 16. At this moment, the fortune -telling experts ended, to which the New Gazeta addressed, and the question "who?" turned into the question "why?"

The following circumstances must be taken into account.

It is impossible to conceal any event associated with the destruction of the satellite and the formation of cosmic garbage.

National surveillance services of Russia, the USA and France tightly track all events in orbit, and mathematical methods of interpretation of observations do not leave the opportunity to challenge them.

Although Russia published a navigation warning in the adopted format for closing for flights of districts in the Barents Sea and the Laptev Sea for the period from 15 to 17, but no one was waiting for orbit. At least, in the statements of a usually striving to stay away from NASA policy, the phrase “irresponsible and destabilizing actions” is used.

There was no one in the history of relations of Russian and American space departments:

QUOTE

Statement of the head of NASA on the destruction of the Soviet satellite by the Russian rocket

“With its long and legendary history of human flights into space, it is inconceivable for Russia to endanger not only American and international partner astronauts on the ISS, but also their own astronauts. Their actions are reckless and dangerous, they also threaten the Chinese space station and Taikonauts aboard. ”

Of the three experts, whom we turned to Monday morning, two categorically refused to believe that this is possible, guided by only one proof: such wild actions are impossible, professionals are sitting in the Ministry of Defense!

After confirming Minister Shoigu, the destruction of the Cosmos-1408 satellite, they began to in confusion in confusion, for the sake of which our military decided to put the safety of astronauts on the ISS. They suggested a public manifestation of rigid determination due to the collapse of the Norman format, the visit of Shoigu and Lavrov to Paris, the visit of the CIA director to Moscow, and so on.

But all explanations scattered before the obvious inconsistency of the reason and act. The USA, China and India experienced similar anti-satellite weapons systems more than ten years ago (the USSR shot down satellites from the mid-60s to 1982). They all chose objects in much lower orbit as goals, fragments from them in a fairly short time burned in the atmosphere of the Earth. But the main thing is

No one destroyed the satellites above the orbit of the constantly inhabited international station: this is fraught with passing the clouds of fragments after explosion through orbit, used for manned space flights. We are the first, alas.

Testing Chinese weapons against satellites in 2007 led to the emergence of a very large number of fragments, and criticism around the world was very loud. As a result of such tests, Nikolai Ivanov, the main ballistics of our Tsups, spoke about the danger of the formation of new clouds in orbit as a result of such tests.

The fact is that cosmic garbage is fruitful at such a speed that in the coming years the issue of safety of all navigation will arise. A time may come when any launch into orbit leads to a clash with garbage.

Therefore, the problem of our Ministry of Defense is not in evidence of the right to test. All people interested in cosmos know that the volume of US military programs in space is fantastic. We will never be able to catch up with them, and all the proposals of Russia on the introduction of some restrictions on the future placement of weapons in the orbit of the Earth seem to them with the requests of the beggar.

But why was it necessary to choose a satellite above the testing of the ISS for testing and in the immediate vicinity of the station? There is no need to check in reality the parameters of the flight and intercept of the anti -throat precisely at the height declared in the project if it is associated with the creation of a danger to the ISS. There are mathematical calculation methods.

There is also a version that NASA announced the alarm at the ISS for the sake of a loud statement, but there was no danger. This assumption will be proved or refuted by experts in the very near future: the Americans began to enter all the data on the newly created fragments in orbit in special catalogs.

Open, by the way.

When creating this article, we proceeded from the official position of the Ministry of Defense and NASA open data. The situation has again developed when the ban on such publications is undermined by the open information of the American partners of Roscosmos in the ISS. Apparently, so that in the future no one could write at least the words “anti -reference weapons”, our Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation attributed everything that does not belong to military secrets - no more than 813 points - to the category of secret secrets . The order of the director of the FSB Bortnikov dated 09/28/2021 No. 379, which classified almost everything regarding the security forces, apparently liked and developed to a total ban.

One way or another, thanks to the reaction of partners in NASA, the test of our anti -recipient weapons in the swarm of the wreckage fell on the first pages of all the world media. Didn't the science module recently delivered to the ISS in Voronezh?

We asked to comment on the situation of one of the most experienced and honored astronauts in Russia.

Anonymously

Russian astronaut

-According to NASA messages, at the intersection of the ISS orbit and the destroyed Cosmos-1408 satellite, a cloud of fragments arose with which the station was dangerously drawn closer, that is, with a step of 90 minutes. How dangerous is this for the astronauts themselves and important components of the ISS?

- At this moment, the situation by Roscosmos specialists in terms of danger for the crew is evaluated as low. The station has a special leaving program from a probable collision with cosmic garbage. After all, fragments of cosmic garbage around the Earth are already more than 30,000. For example, the recruiting steps of missiles, taking satellites to high orbits, are constantly in the process of decrease until they are burned in the atmosphere. The ISS departure program from a collision with space garbage is initiated from the Earth and works automatically. As a rule, on the rise of orbit to dilute objects in height. Sometimes the program worked even at night during sleep.

Supporting tracking stations predict the trajectories of garbage movement in the direction and height, evaluating the level of danger to the ISS in three zones. Relatively speaking, green, yellow, red. It happened that for launching the program for various reasons there was no time or the danger of a collision was estimated as high. Then the crew closes the hatches of the modules, isolating them in case of holes, and goes into the ships.

In any case, the crew always has time to close the hatches of modules and occupying places in the ship. In the turmoil and panic, this operation is not done. If we consider NASA's statement as true, just such a situation was created there.

The management center did not have time to analyze, make a decision and launch a departure program. The event developed very quickly. In addition, a cloud of fragments was formed (about 1.5 thousand).

-Is it possible to exclude other versions, up to the marginal: a meteorite to the Cosmos-1408 satellite, an explosion of fuel residues in its tanks?

“You have forgotten more about aliens.” The trajectories of the movement of large meteorites are predicted long before dangerous rapprochement with the ground. Superior rapprochement stations also see very small objects, evaluating the probability of a collision with the ISS.

There are a lot of space garbage objects above orbit. They are constantly reduced under the influence of gravity and pressure of sunlight. The ISS itself loses about 200 m of height per day due to these factors. For this reason, the orbit corrections are carried out periodically.

- How much such a cloud can hang on the path of the ISS?

- From several months to several years, if we are talking about its complete combustion in the atmosphere. Depending on the size, trajectory of movement and the speed of fragments, of course. Hypothetically,

Even in height below the ISS, the cloud can pose a threat to starting and returning crews on manned ships. The probability, frankly, is scanty, but it is.

- Did the companions explode in your memory?

- In April 2015, our cargo “Progress” went into a spin and exploded immediately after leaving into support orbit. This is a height of about 200 km, and the fragments are quickly braked and burned in the atmosphere.

If we proceed from the statements of the Russian Ministry of Defense, then it confirmed the statement of NASA. So, definitely the risks for the ISS crew are created man -made. I hope that our experts know the design of the destroyed satellite, the number of heavy and strong fragments that can be dangerous for the ISS in a collision and can predict the trajectories of their movement in advance. With very small objects, the situation is more complicated.

In fact, the situation is serious.

Today it is evaluated as non -hazardous, but over time, the trajectory of the movement of the fragments of the satellite will begin to change, and those that were above the ISS will begin to decline and intersect with the orbit station.

The probability of collision can be evaluated as high. All this should now track the ground services of both countries. This is a headache for them.

- Should the Ministry of Defense coordinate the likely consequences of testing anti -recipient weapons with a luxury responsible for the safety of the ISS and generally civilian cosmonautics?

- Naturally, such things should be coordinated. It is difficult to imagine a situation where such risky steps are taken without warning. This means in the interaction system there is the effect of Dunning Cruger: “Metacognitive distortion, which consists in the fact that people with a low level of qualifications draw erroneous conclusions, make unsuccessful decisions and at the same time are incapable of realizing their mistakes due to the low level of their qualifications. This leads to the emergence of excessive ideas about their own abilities. ”