Tectonics of elite slabs

The last month was rich in the arrests of iconic figures in the elite, which caused great public resonance: Sberbank Vice President Marina Rakakova (7.10), rector of the Higher School of Social and Economic Sciences (Shaninki) Sergey Zuev (12.10), former chairman of the board of the state company Avtodor (2011-2019), and now the adviser to the President of the Russian Railways Sergey Kelbhah (27.10), the ex-owner of one of the largest Russian Railways contractors-Special Transtroy (2016-2019), the former deputy head of the Ministry of Regional Development (2009-2013) and the Ministry of Construction (2013-2016) Yuri Reyilen (2.11).

The detention, in addition, perhaps, of the first two cases actively discussed by the liberal public, which even organized a campaign in defense of Sergei Zuev, did not cause a wide public resonance. The detainees are in the elite the figures of the second or third plan and may not seem so significant. However, what is happening reflects serious processes, partly reminiscent of 2007 with an increase in the struggle between elite groups and taking hostages. Before serious transformations, elite slabs are moving in motion, as it was before the transition to the tandem.

Kovalchukov plate and Rotenberg plate

What slabs-groups can we talk about now? In the case of Cancer, this is, first of all, the first Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov and the head of Sberbank German Gref. Belousov is the creator and curator of the agency of strategic initiatives, where Rakova made a career with the project of the school of the future, which she implemented by committing a rapid career take-off and taking the post of deputy ministerial minister (2018-2020). Gref took Rakov when she left the government, for an important project “Digital Education Platforms” for him and Sberbank. Zuev through methodologists is directly connected with the first deputy head of the AP Sergey Kiriyenko, and it is no coincidence that the long -term adviser Kiriyenko since the Envoy and Rosatom Shchedrovitsky, one of the first to publicly raised his voice in defense of the rector of Shaninka. Kiriyenko himself has been associated with the Kovalchuk brothers since the same times. Thus, the frame of the first software is formed by A. Belousov, G. Gref, S. Kiriyenko and Yu. And M. Kovalchuki. There is a point of view according to which what is happening with Zuev and around Shanka aims to demonstrate not the omnipotence of Kiriyenko, whose positions after the Duma elections were strengthened. Note that around Kiriyenko someone is planted from time to time, and in a large way. Of those who are heard, Vyacheslav Gaiser and Alexander Zarubin, who rushed in 2016 on the run, when, supposedly, they wanted to prevent Kiriyenko’s arrival in AP; Lyubov Glebov, who was the head of Rossotrudnichestvo, which was almost imprisoned in 2017; Dmitry Ovsyannikov, who was driven from the heads of Sevastopol in 2019, and in 2020 was kicked out of the EP and removed from the deputy minister. If you look wider and turn on Kovalchuk, closely with Kiriyenko, you can recall how a year ago from Boris Kovalchuk-Ml. The post of Minister of Energy sailed away, and Karina Tsurkan close to him was detained in 2018 on charges of espionage in favor of Moldova and convicted at the very end of last year to 15 years.

Behind the figures of S. Kelbakh and Yu. Reyelian, in addition to the associated head of the Russian Railways Oleg Belozerov, the figures of Arkady Rotenberg, Gennady Timchenko and even Igor Shuvalov are visible directly with them. The long and close ties of Belozerov and the Rotenbergs have been originating since the late 1990s. They especially strengthened when Belozerov in 2004 became the head of the Federal Road Agency, and Mostotrest turned into his largest contractor. Upon the appointment of Belozerov, the head of the Russian Railways in 2015, he was considered the creature of the Rotenbergs, whose role as “kings of the state order” after that increased significantly. Financing many Rotenberg projects, such as in Ust-Luga, is carried out by VEB. Together with VEB, Rotenberg creates a new National Project Rod, focused on large state orders in the construction of infrastructure. To the transport and infrastructure plate of the Rotenbergs, it is perhaps to add an influential assistant to the president, secretary of the State Council Igor Levitin.

Elite slabs drift

By operating with the concept of elite slabs, it should be borne in mind that a) they are alive and change - even if these are not just situational unions, but they are not “cast in granite”; And b) There are shareholders, managers, and what is happening from time to change managers - this is a natural process. Changing managers, including using repression, may not be considered as violation of the status quo. It is important whether the appropriate elite group retains control over positions. From this point of view, Sberbank, perhaps, loses “Enlightenment”, where he has 25% of the shares, and the Rotenberg will seem to be a struggle for the position of the head of the Russian Railways, if O. Belozerov leaves, as some experts expect.

Rotenberg and Shuvalov are, in some sense, a link between the two described plates, since their business interests are associated with “enlightenment”-not only a giant monopoly in the school textbooks market, but also a contender for the entire budget niche associated with schools, including construction and configuration. Experts consider the clash of their interests with the interests of Sberbank a commercial background of events with Rakakov and Zuev.

The exchange of detentions, and in the case of Rakoka and Zuev, is rather a response to the detention of Kelbakh and Rayilen, which, although they happened later, were prepared for a long time. Mutual attacks can be considered, however, in a more general context, in a longer time perspective, which includes the resignation of the Minister of Transport E. Dietrich in November 2020 and the unnecution of B. Kovalchuk-Ml. To the post of Minister of Energy (recall that before the transition of A. Novak to a more status post of Deputy Prime Minister was arrested in September 2020. His long-time associate of deputy minister Anatoly Tikhonov).

Interesting in the context of the drift of the plates of the figure of Shuvalov and Mishustin. Shuvalov - a figure adjacent to the system liberals, in the past the curator of the “Gaidar Forum” and the RANEPA, it would seem, to speak from Rakakov and Zuev. However, he, as the head of the VEB, creates, together with A. Rotenberg, the infrastructure giant "National Project" and heads the board of directors of the Publishing House "Enlightenment". As for Mishustin, he is situationally interested in the weakening of A. Belousov opposing him in the government, and one of the versions of Cancer’s detention was even the game of Mishustin against his first deputy. And although Mishustin-Belousses are a pole of tension in the government, both of them, like Kiriyenko, enter the same Seraphim Brotherhood.

The silence of the elites

In the conditional analogy, the security officers Sergey Storchak was arrested by the security forces of the Secondary School of 2007, who, having had been in custody of 11 months, was released on a recognizance not to leave. The criminal prosecution against him was terminated “for the lack of an event of a crime” only in January 2011. All this time, Storchak retained the post of deputy minister, with whom he resigned by age only in 2020.

Marina Rakova was not even detained, and she was already fired from the post of vice president of Sberbank on October 4, prematurely arrest. And the point, it seems, is not the difference between the personalities of the “system liberals” by Alexei Kudrin, the head of Storchak, and German Gref, whose deputy was Rakov. The case is the changed political regime and the rules of the game for the elite.

They are silent, at least publicly, not only Gref and Belousov, directly related, but also Vladimir Mau, whose employees, including Zuev close to him, were arrested in the “Cancan case”, and other status liberals. There is no usual campaign in media in such cases, public statements. Today it is required to demonstrate to the victim of the repressive machine, and then try to replay something, appealing personally to Putin.

The most logical explanation for the disappearance of cancerous for a week after her on September 29 was an attempt through the same Gref and Belousov to clarify the situation and, if possible, resolve it peacefully. In absentia this failed, Rakov on October 6 voluntarily went under arrest, and on October 26 Gref met with Putin. Taking into account the required two -week quarantine, an agreement on the meeting was reached almost immediately after a search with cancer. It is possible that the very fact of the planned meeting with Putin and his possible interference in the actions of the security forces played the role of the restraining factor against Zuev, which, contrary to the demand of the investigation, the court chose house arrest on October 13 as a preventive measure. It is known that the judge reflected on this decision for two whole hours - that is how much she spent in the deliberative room. On November 9, after the Gref meeting with Putin, who did not change the situation, the Moscow City Court granted the prosecutor’s appeal for the decision of the Tver District Court on the election of house arrest and decided to place Zuev in jail.

By the efforts of the Kremlin, all the figures in the elite are “suspended”, put into a state of unstable balance. This balance can be violated for a variety of reasons: due to maneuvering at the top of an elite pyramid, making a particular clientele less protected, due to the changed external circumstances and elite layouts, a change in priorities and moods at the very top. What does this mean in relation to specific criminal cases under consideration? This means that the accusations incorrected by the consequences or even reality do not correspond to their defendants, so attempts to “rationalize” repressions with an accent on commercial interests and business conflicts for them are able to explain only part of the story, moreover, not necessarily the most significant.

As for the reaction of the elite, today the previous rules of the game are no longer working when it was allowed to publicly appeal to the national leader and to question the actions of the security forces, even when they act as a clan struggle tool.

A separate issue is a savage in normal. Here, a public scandal coincided with released videos of mass torture of prisoners in the FSIN system and the case of a seriously unhealthy Zuev, which from a hospital bed drags on interrogations and in a pre -trial detention center. The parallel with the case of Sergei Magnitsky is obvious here. Only if, then, in 2009, this happened secretly and imperceptibly, now it is pointless, in full view of the country and the whole world.