300 million against the invasion. Limits of American assistance to Kyiv

Will Russia attack Ukraine? And what military assistance can the United States provide to prevent new Russian aggression?

The West continues to warn the Kremlin about the most rigid sanctions against Russia, including a blow to its financial system, in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, increases the rates by increasing the number of his troops near the border of Ukraine, and in fact in an ultimatical uniform requires the United States and their allies to provide written obligations of Ukraine’s non -profit in NATO. The agreement proposed by Russia on the measures of ensuring the security of the Russian Federation, which was published on December 17, contains a direct requirement: "Participants who are the states of the organization of the North Atlantic Agreement accept obligations that exclude the further expansion of NATO, including the accession of Ukraine." In addition, they are invited to refuse "to conduct any military activities in Ukraine, as well as other states of Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia and Central Asia."

The fact that the Kremlin has not yet thought to withdraw additional troops pulled to the border of Ukraine is also evidenced by the data of space intelligence published by the Buzzfeed website. The new Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexei Reznikov published on December 3 on the website of the Atlantic Council an article under the heading "The Future of Europe will be decided in Ukraine." He believes that the Russian invasion may occur "in the coming months", but he is sure that it is "doomed to failure." “The powerful military machine of Russia, of course, can advance with large forces,” Rezznikov writes, “but Russian troops will not be able to hold any seized territory. Instead, the occupied Ukrainian land will burn under their feet.”

The main Ukrainian military intelligence officer Kirill Budanov in a recent interview with New York Times said that Ukraine will not be able to independently resist Russia in a full -scale war: "Unfortunately, Ukraine should recognize at this stage that we lack military resources to counteract the full -scale offensive of Russia if the Western countries do not intervene." General Budanov described the details of the worst scenario with a possible advance of Russia. At first, in his opinion, the Russians will apply missiles and aircraft with arsenals in the rear, as well as the military in the trenches. Further, according to Budanov, for a fairly short period of time, the Ukrainian command will not be able to coordinate the defense lines and ensure the transportation of the reserve composition. Therefore, the responsibility will pass entirely to the commanders in the field. "They (Ukrainian armed units. - RS) will hold a blow until ammunition ends with them. They will be able to apply what will happen at that moment, but, believe me, without timely support of the West, not a single army can stand on their own. They (the leaders of Western democracies. - RS) need to decide whether they declare, as they declare, and allies help each other - and the allies help each other - and the allies help each other - and the allies help each other - and the allies help each other - and the allies help each other - and the allies help each other Or they need to honestly admit that if the civilized world wants to avoid a general disaster for everyone - we need military technical assistance now, not after tomorrow, not a year later, ”said Kirill Budanov.

From Obama to Biden - how the US help changed

The Americans, of course, are also concerned about the possible prospect of US military interference in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. Such a prospect is frightened by , for example, the ardent opponent of Joe Bayden, a Fox News observer Tucker Carlson , who said that there was no need to discount the “Possibility of a hot war with Russia, no matter how implausible it seemed. Yes, this is a crazy idea. There is nothing that we could get from military confrontation with Vladimir Putin, and we can lose a lot of things, including, including many Thousands of the lives of the Americans.

However, President Biden categorically excludes this opportunity.

President Biden: "The Idea of the United States IS Going to Unilatarally us to Confront Russia Invading Is Not in the Carts Right Now, But Will Happen IS There Will Be Savere Consequences

- CSPAN (@Cspan) December 8, 2021

This option is not considered. We have a moral and legal obligation to our NATO allies in accordance with the fifth article if they are attacked. This is a sacred obligation. It does not apply to Ukraine. This will also depend on the fact that other members of NATO are ready to take. But the idea that the United States will unilaterally use force in order to withstand the Russian invasion of Ukraine today is unlikely.

Vashinkon does not recognize the annexation of Crimea, which was confirmed by the Charter about strategic partnership signed on November 10 by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleboy. "The United States does not recognize and will never reject Russia's attempt to annex Crimea," the document says. In December 2014, Congress adopted the Law "On Support for Liberty in Ukraine", authorizing military supplies to Kiev. President Obama signed it, but refrained from the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine. The Obama administration supplied Ukraine with Humvee armored jeeps, unarmed drones, anti-minute radar, night vision devices and military medical equipment, and offensive weapons in the nomenclature did not really have these supplies. President Trump took off this taboo. Since 2018, the United States began to send large-caliber sniper rifles to Ukraine Barrett M107A1, ammunition and spare parts for them, and in January 2019 they agreed on the supply of 37 Javelin anti-tank missile systems in the amount of $ 39 million.

However, under the terms of the Javelina agreement , it was impossible to use in the conflict zone. They were placed in the western regions of Ukraine and served as a means of deterrence. Moreover, in July 2019, Trump froze the military assistance to Ukraine already approved by Congress in the amount of $ 250 million allocated for the 2019 financial year, and instructed to figure out what these funds were spent on. This happened on July 18, a week before Trump’s telephone conversation with Zelensky, during which the US president is implicitly, but quite transparently linked to provide assistance with Kiev’s assistance in search of incriminating evidence on Bayden. “We are ready to continue cooperation,” Zelensky said then, “in particular, we are almost ready to buy another batch of“ Javelins ”for defense purposes from the United States. Exactly after this phrase, Trump spoke about the "favor", which he expects from the President of Ukraine. The suspension of assistance was to be a clear signal for Kiev. This whole story was the reason for the first impeachment of Trump.

Deliveries were resumed after 56 days, on September 11, only after the democrats in the Senate threatened to freeze the allocation of the Pentagon for 2020 financial year in the amount of $ 5 billion.

Since the beginning of the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine, the United States provided Kyiv for military assistance in the amount of about $ 2.5 billion. The US defense budget approved by the Senate for the next year provides for the allocation of 300 million for these purposes.

In total, since 2018, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the framework of military assistance from the United States, received 77 launchers FGM-148 Javelin and 540 controlled missiles to them. The last batch of Javelin and 180 missiles entered them in October. The American Army of the American Army of the American ATGM is not enough to reflect the offensive of the Russian troops if the Kremlin decides to large -scale invasion. The United States considers the possibility of providing Kyiv of additional military assistance, which will include the same Javelin, mortars, air defense systems, Stinger missiles, Mi-17 helicopters, which were previously intended for the Afghan army. Ukraine would like to receive early warnings from the United States and radar stations, including a missile attack, radio electronic warfare. In November, the Ukrainian military on the contact line in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions received American anti -tank missile systems Javelin. But they will use them only in the event of the enemy.

After the threat of Russian invasion arose, the Biden administration prepared a package of additional military assistance to Ukraine, including the supply of lethal weapons, in the amount of $ 100 million. However, the president hesitated with his signing, as noted in the American press, supposedly due to the fact that his video was expected with Putin, and he did not want to overshadow tension and give rise to accusations. After the American press reported the suspension, the White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki published a statement in which she denied the fact of delay. She called this idea absurd.

Javelin PTRS and Mi-17 helicopters

The connection between American supplies and conversations of the Presidents of the United States and Russia and the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, First Deputy Head of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, does not confirm, General Mikhail Zabrodsky :

- It is known that the delay in some US military aid is due to the fact that the Pentagon did not manage to purchase certain weapons, such as sniper weapons. If we speak as a whole about the help of the West of our army, then largely the reason is not in the Pentagon, but in the obstacles (regarding the transfer of weapons to Ukraine. - RS) that arose inside the NATO structure itself. We know that a number of countries are blocking the sending of military assistance to us and offer to consider it as an additional argument that can provoke the Russian Federation for more decisive actions (in relation to Ukraine. - RS) .

- Analyzing statements that have been in Washington, London, and the capitals of the European Union since the end of October, in your opinion, is the real threat of a new aggression of Russia against Ukraine really remains? Or Vladimir Putin blackmails both Ukraine and the West in order to achieve geopolitical concessions?

- We are talking about a combination of a real threat and blackmail. The threat from Russia is permanent. She has not disappeared anywhere since 2014. Another thing is that we are dealing with a very increased degree of reality of this threat. The Kremlin’s ultimate goal is difficult to predict. It is not necessary to be direct military aggression with the occupation of part of the territory and the change of power in Ukraine. The enemy can lead, including part of the subtle hybrid war against us and against our partners. It is possible that a number of actions such as a demonstrative creation of a group near the Ukrainian border, relevant statements and practical steps for preparation (to potential invasion. - RS) are called to achieve concessions from the United States and their allies.

- A number of experts argue that if Putin gives an order to attack Ukraine, the rate will not be made for a ground operation, but on aviation and missile strikes.

- Of course, a classic example of planning and carrying out such operations implies the beginning from the air phase - the use of airstrikes against groups of troops, air defense, control points, military bases and arsenals. But we do not know what ultimate goal the Kremlin sets itself. If we are talking about forcing us to some decision, as was done in due time with the former Yugoslavia , then, indeed, the case may not reach the ground phase. And the missile and bombing attacks can create conditions for the set strategic and political goals to be achieved. But I would not consider such a scenario of the development of events as the main one.

- You said that Putin’s likely goal is to force Ukraine. What? Does he want autonomy for Donbass, followed by federalization and collapse of Ukraine?

- This may be the requirement to consolidate the autonomous status for the Donbass in the Ukrainian Constitution, and the restoration of the supply of Dnieper water to the Crimea, it can be a language question. If Putin strives with the help of the autonomy of Donbass, including blocking the foreign policy course of Ukraine, then yes, it is absolutely logical to assume that the list of requirements will concern the legitimization of the Donbass as part of Ukraine. If Putin’s plans go much further, for example, the revival of the Novorossiya project, that is, control over the southern and left -bank Ukraine, then the list of requirements can be significantly expanded. But so far we don’t know exactly what Putin wants, and we can only assume, ”says Mikhail Zabrodsky, deputy of the Verkhovna Rada.

"White Swans" Putin

Commenting on the threat of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on the air of one of the national television channels, the former head of the SBU Igor Smashko said that Putin to attack Ukraine does not have to start with an order to cross its border and airspace. The Kremlin can start a military operation with spot missile attacks on military infrastructure, which, according to the Ukrainian general, can apply strategic bombers while in the Russian airspace. It is primarily about supersonic missile carriers of the Tu-160.

Russian Tu-160 produces a cruise missile during the exercises on December 9, 2020

These aircraft were built in Soviet times, according to the Western classification, the bomber call Blackjack, and in Russia “white swan”. They are equipped with cruise missiles to defeat targets at a distance of up to 2–2.5 thousand kilometers. 11 strategic Tu-160 and Tu-95 MS bombers capable of carrying nuclear missiles, Ukraine transferred to Russia in the late 90s, abandoning its inheritance after the collapse of the USSR of nuclear weapons. Subsequently, Russia modernized almost all Tu-160 and Tu-95 MS, equipping them with modern missiles. The Tu-160M is able to develop speeds up to 2000 km/h and, as they say in Russia, can easily break away from the interceptors and overcome the air defense zone. Since the fall of 2015, the modernized “white swans” were involved in a military operation in Syria, and the X-555 missiles released from these aircraft (modification of the X-55) and X-101 with high accuracy were destroyed by military facilities of the Islamic state. It is likely that if the Kremlin decides to new aggression against Ukraine, then first of all, the military expert of the Center Alexander Sungurovsky agrees with the opinion of his colleagues, aviation and missile strikes will be delivered, and simultaneously from the east, south and north of Ukraine:

- Having not received from the United States and its allies written guarantees of Ukraine’s non -profit in NATO, Putin can also implement such a scenario in order to achieve the surrender of Ukraine. The Russian president can take such a step as, say, a small invasion of Ukraine. I do not think that Putin is interested in a full -scale attack on Ukraine and the capture of its territories. The priority task for the Kremlin can be, if possible, break through the land corridor to the Crimea and resume the supply of Dnieper water to the peninsula. But, probably, Putin is planning some kind of frightening blow to Ukraine. And he can use both missile troops and aviation, or we can talk about a very fast ground operation. Which option will be chosen depends on the plans of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. But, I repeat, Putin needs primarily a terrifying blow with the aim of surrender of Ukraine.

-In your opinion, can Russia use strategic aircraft, in particular, Tu-160 missile carriers to attack Ukraine?

- Russian aviation has great opportunities relative to both heights and flight range, and this applies not only to the mentioned strategic bombers. Most missiles that are equipped with aviation of the RF Armed Forces can be used without entering the air defense zone. Unlike Russian, the Ukrainian air defense defense is quite outdated. The available S-300 complexes can be involved for purposes within one hundred kilometers. And the S-300 complexes are not enough for the protection of the entire territory. And if there really is such a massive attack using Russia by Russia of military aviation and missile forces, then Ukrainian air defense is unlikely to be able to completely protect our airspace, ”says Nikolai Sungurovsky.

Will the US help in protecting the airspace of Ukraine?

Air and missile defense is the weakest link in the defense of Ukraine. The country's Minister of Defense Alexei Reznikov during the November visit to the United States asked to help the Ukrainian army with the supply of modern air defense systems and missile defense systems. In early December, a group of American military who visited Ukraine assessed the state and needs of Ukrainian air defense. “They studied in detail the gaps that we have, the weaknesses and strengths of our air defense, both air and the ground forces. We also studied the problems of missile defense,” said Yuri Ignat, a representative of the Air Force Air Force.

According to military expert Oleg Zhdanov , the current Ukrainian air defense system is outdated, it is based on air defense systems of the Soviet Union, which are often repaired and modernized. The military protect the Ukrainian sky on the Soviet MiG-29 and Su-27 and anti-aircraft missile systems, many of which are 40–60 years old. "В последние годы мы усилили свою противовоздушную оборону – убрали очень старые комплексы С-200 и заменили их комплексами С-300. Причем С-300 могут применяться и против крылатых ракет противника, то есть эта система может стать элементом ПРО. Тем не менее эффективность действующей сейчас сети системы ПВО Украины меньше, чем хотелось бы", – констатирует Жданов.

Зенитный комплекс С-300 в пригородах Киева

Украина рассчитывает на поставки американских зенитно-ракетных комплексов Patriot, которые получили не только партнеры Соединённых Штатов по НАТО – Польша, Румыния, но и внеблоковые страны – Швеция, Саудовская Аравия. Если США и решат поставить Украине такие ЗРК, то произойдет это нескоро, прогнозирует Николай Сунговский:

– Польша получает новейшие американские системы ПРО Patriot. Если украинские власти договорятся о поставках хотя бы старых образцов систем Patriot, это уже будет позитивным шагом в усилении защиты национального воздушного пространства. Но для подготовки персонала этих систем потребуется много времени – до полугода. Украина давно, еще до концентрации российских войск у нашей границы, обращалась к странам Запада за помощью в создании надежной системы ПВО и ПРО. Однако решений никаких принято не было. Очевидно, что пока Украине в этом отношении придется рассчитывать исключительно на собственные силы, – подчёркивает Николай Сунгуровский.

Пока же на фоне набирающей обороты российской угрозы в украинской столице срочно приводят в порядок бомбоубежища.