There is no more friendship between Moscow and Nur Sultan. Partnership also looks toxic: Russia and Kazakhstan are too annoying each other

During the press conference of Vladimir Putin, there was no time for the questions to be asked the “media-foreign agents”, but there was a slot for the journalist of the Kazakhstan television channel Indira Begaydar. The very question about the development of joint work on Baikonur was enough on duty, but Putin during an answer gave several multidirectional signals to his neighbors. Yes, Kazakhstan, in Putin, is one of the key allies, but the Russian president has never called the name of his current colleague Kasim-Zhomart Tokayev (but about Nursultan Nazarbayev, during a three-minute response, he mentioned several times with great warmth). And Putin emphasized that he was grateful to the Kazakh government for preserving the Russian language. "Kazakhstan is a Russian -speaking country in the full sense of the word!" He exclaimed.

Just this week, a meeting of the CIS relevant committee, Eurasian integration and relations with compatriots, at which deputies with “great concern”, discussed Kazakhstani advertising signs, took place in the Duma. In early December, a law was adopted in the republic that regulates their spelling in the Kazakh language. Russian deputies were very embarrassing that signs in the state language are mandatory, and in other languages ​​- as necessary. And the statement of Dauren Abaev, adviser to President Tokayev, that no one would touch the Russian -speaking signs, did not convince the Dumans: they run with the question of the new “infringement of the Russian language” all of December.

It came to obvious threats: the deputy chairman in the committee is a key character in the events in the Donbass Alexander Borodai, and he did not particularly restrain himself.

“I am well familiar with the Asian mentality, and, unfortunately, in Asia they only understand the language of power well. This force does not have to be manifested, but the possibility of application must be demonstrated. Weak are not respected. The allies of Russia, as Alexander III said, remain its army and navy, we have no other real allies, unfortunately, ”the beard Russian and Kazakhstani media quotes (the new Boroday refused to talk, citing employment).

True, his direct chief, State Duma deputy Konstantin Zatulin, prefers softer formulations - without denying, however, that Russia does not like what is happening in Kazakhstan. “Our colleagues from Kazakhstan reassure us with references that the official Russian language is used, but nevertheless, what we know, suggests that recently decisions that should ensure the functioning of the Kazakh language alone. And this creates nervousness in the Russian -speaking population. We agreed next year, immediately after the New Year, to request the necessary information, to make the necessary contacts in order to understand this situation, ”says Zatulin“ New ”.

Nur Sultan does not like such hints. The most radical messages are publicly blocked: in the week, the Information of the Information of Kazakhstan officially blocked in the country the website of the newspaper Alexander Prokhanov “Tomorrow”. Back in September, an article by the Ural culturalist Yevgeny Fateev was published on the site, in which he urged the Russian authorities to exert maximum pressure on the republic in order to stop the “rapid Ukrainianization of Kazakhstan”. Kazakhstan is ready to go to the conflict with this kind of press. But what to do with the obviously intensifying pressure of the "ally" authorities in Nur-Sultan is not very understood: in a public skirmish, Moscow is stronger over and over again.

You were not pulled by the tongue

Outwardly, the cloudless relations of Kazakhstan and Russia covered clouds last year, when several State Duma deputies openly stated that part of the lands should be taken away from the republic. That scandal was eventually quickly extinguished, but in the middle of this summer the Russian media began to actively disperse the topic about “language patrols” in the neighboring republic. It was about unrelated activists who forced food store employees to answer them in the Kazakh language. The whole process was shot on camera, after which the video was posted on a special channel on YouTube. The founder of the channel, eccentric activist Kuat Akhmetov, before that not very remarkable even in his country, once became a star of a stranger in the country. As a result, Akhmetov had a criminal case of interethnic growth, he himself in a hurry left the country. But this gave propaganda the opportunity to stick the label of the country to the republic, where there is “xenophobia”. With visible pleasure, this word in its festive article dedicated to the 29th anniversary of the relations of the two countries was used by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

It was already too much: even the eldest daughter of Nazarbayev, deputy of Mazhilis Darig Nazarbayev, spoke publicly. In fairly sharp expressions, she advised Lavrov to look at her own country, where "no, no, and xenophobic manifestations happen." “Sergey Viktorovich writes: individual cases are largely a product of the use of special information techniques from the outside. It seems to me that the Russian official reaction to such cases proves that the sabotage work of the “foreign agents”, if this takes place, has reached its goal, ”Nazarbayeva scanned openly.

Initially, it was implied that the national map in Russia was played before the elections to the State Duma (for example, also Kyrgyzstan got), but the subsequent level of sharp rhetoric on both sides suggests that the situation is somewhat more complicated. “Kazakhstan, the farther from the collapse of the Soviet Union, the more and more it is trying to affirm itself in the status of a real sovereign independent state and approves the multi -vector trend of foreign policy orientation, where Russia is one of the poles, but nevertheless only one pole among the world centers with which Kazakhstan is trying to cooperate or have trusting relations. Of course, we are talking about China, the United States and the European Union. Russia here is the fourth pole, as if four cardinal points, ”says political scientist Arkady Dubnov. - Kazakhstan claims the desire to designate this Western vector, in particular, by the fact that he switched from the Cyrillic alphabet to Latin.

This, in general, is a rather serious sign, a serious marker of Kazakhstan's desire to become part of the world community with its technological and innovative achievements.

And this has become one of the most serious irritants in the ruling Russian elite, which, in general, perceives this quite adequately as the refusal of Kazakhstan from the unconditional entry into the orbit of the influence of Russia. ”

Moscow cannot imagine that the countries of Central Asia can have their own policy, and in general their opinion, Dubnov believes. This became all the more noticeable when Russia put the ultimatum of the United States and NATO regarding further non -spread to the east. “Territorial claims can break out with renewed vigor at any moment, especially today, when Moscow actually raises the question much more menacingly than before, about the right to indicate the measure of their independence to the former Soviet republics. In one of the draft agreements with the Americans Black and Belly, Russia requires the United States to abandon any military cooperation, any military activity in the territory of the former countries that were part of the USSR and not included in NATO today. The number of such countries, of course, includes Kazakhstan. This is the last restriction that Moscow considers itself entitled to impose on foreign policy and orientation of Kazakhstan, an extremely serious circumstance. I think that all this previous activity of recent times was only the “artillery preparation” for this very strict request of Russia to legally fix its right to consider, in particular, Kazakhstan, a zone of its special interests, ”Dubnov warns.

The Kazakh authorities, except for the attack of Dariga Nazarbayeva, do not want to conflict openly and take asymmetric measures with a relatively quiet sapa. Immediately after the territorial claims of Russian deputies, Kasym-Zhomart Tokaev issued a historical article where he hinted that he should be more thoroughly to figure out who was to blame for the crimes of the past against the Kazakhs. The hunger of the 20s was primarily meant, but in parallel, the Kazakh authorities de facto authorized a scientific discussion about the Holodomor (in the republic it is called “Asharshylyk”). With the support of the authorities, a multi -volume collection of documents about the Holodomor was even published - and this even more enjoyed opponents of Kazakhstan's independence in Russia.

In addition, in parallel with the departure of the ideological inspirer of Language Patrols, Kuat Akhmetov in Kazakhstan was convicted by activist Ermek Tychibekov - the personification of the pro -Russian agenda in the Kazakhstan segment of social networks. Perhaps this was the sharpest answer of Russia on the part of Kazakhstan: in 2015, one of the authors of this material took an interview from Taichibekov, and even then it was clear that there was no other ideological base in the activist’s head, except for television propaganda.

Seven years for stupidity is an excessive punishment, but it was obvious that Kazakhstan wanted to show his teeth.

Under the fifth of a neighbor

Unfortunately for Kazakhstanis, on this the combat power of the authorities of the republic actually ends. In an economic sense, Kazakhstan, although Russia is not the largest trading partner, is greatly dependent on neighbors since the entry into the Eurasian Economic Union. Yes, applying its “multi -vector”, Kazakhstan is trying to look for other allies (including economic): in the past few months, conversations about the Union of Turkic peoples have been significantly increased, where Türkiye and Erdogan personally play the main violin. But the connection with Russia cannot be broken, and Moscow does everything to make its influence on the republic even stronger. In particular, it almost does not hide that Russia is pushing the project for the construction of a nuclear power plant in the south of Kazakhstan: the authorities flirt, saying that it has not yet been decided who exactly will build the station, but everyone understands everything. In addition, the system of electronic government in the country will organize Sber: even some experts loyal to the authorities in the republic call this a disaster.

Finally, despite a clear improvement in the situation with coronavirus in Kazakhstan, Moscow does not seek to open borders with a neighboring country: the air traffic is not fully restored (which also led to a sharp rise in price of tickets), a minimum number of people can pass through the ground checkpoints. Moreover, the vaccination passports from Kazakhstan have not yet been legally recognized in Russia - and this is that most vaccinations in the republic are carried out by the Russian satellite.

All this indicates that Russia is still controlled by all the trembling of Kazakhstan. “Being an economically weak player in the framework of the EAEU, Kazakhstan seems to have already lost part of his sovereignty,” says political scientist with Dosy Satpaev. - And entering the CSTO, Kazakhstan risks losing its independence in the field of forming its own military policy. Economics and security are two pillars on which everything is worth it. ” The creation of tension within the republic due to the propaganda scream from Moscow to the Kremlin itself is also profitable: this is an additional weakening of a neighboring country due to the “export of chaos”, about which the former first deputy head of the presidential administration Vladislav Surkov spoke about in his recent article.

This tension, obviously, will be submitted to the republic for the time being in a dosage - at least until Nursultan Nazarbayev is alive. Very warm relationships of the two leaders are regularly emphasized by both sides. The local meme was the expression “God this neighbor”, which Nazarbayev used in relation to Russia in the era of Putin. In addition, when Nazarbayev fell ill with Covid, doctors to Kazakhstan, according to the former president of the republic, was sent to him by Putin. Due to such warm relations of the two people, Kazakhstan as a country is still perceived as a more or less equal partner, says political scientist Satpaev. But this, of course, is temporary. “The Nazarbayev factor as one of the patriarchs of the Soviet leadership cannot but be reached over Putin. Nazarbayev’s factor, who was a supporter of the preservation of the Union, could not but be a help for Putin, who somehow dreams of the formula for the new reincarnation of the USSR. Therefore, the authority of Nazarbayev, of course, affects the relations of Russia and Kazakhstan. But in this transit period of the gradual departure of Nazarbayev from power, he, in general, would have to damp the attempt of Nur Sultan further to assert his sovereign voyage. Nazarbayev tries to somehow contribute to this damping, ”explains Arkady Dubnov.

This is the bad news for the current president of Kasim-Zhomart Tokayev, who in three years of presidency in foreign policy has not left the shadow of Nazarbayev (too diplomatic): for Putin he is not even, experts say "new", "they have no common sandbox, even if they are peers." On the other hand, it is this diplomacy that can be on Tokaev’s hand if he can agree with other large geopolitical players on the creation of the “counterweight of Russia” on the territory of Kazakhstan (as Nazarbayev did until he was old). “We need to try equally equally to conduct relations with Russia, and with China, and with Turkey, and with the European Union,” Satpaev suggests. “And of course, it is necessary that domestic social policy develop in such a way that foreign players do not even have the opportunity to somehow influence the situation in the country.” With the latter, of course, there are problems: over the past year in Kazakhstan, the standard of living - both economic and household - has fallen even more. And although in Russia the situation is quite a little better, it wins the propaganda battle of comparison of living standards in two countries.

What exactly does not have the Kazakh government is a lot of time.

Yes, Russia's influence on domestic policy will weaken in a natural way. Even the official census of the population suggests that representatives of the state -forming nation in the country are more than two thirds. In fact, this number is significantly larger and will grow further. But Russia also understands this, and the Kremlin is now not in the emotional state in order to easily give in to his former colony the right to live as the citizens of this country want.

“The current relationship of Kazakhstan and Russia is the relationship of husband and wife before divorce,” Satpaev states a rack. - Yes, they are still trying to live together, but black cats are already running. And probably in the future, someone will want to start the process of divorce-maybe peaceful, or maybe hard. ” This analogy is good for everyone, except for one thing: marriage has not existed for 30 years, and the haunter still believes that all his wives belong to him. The Age of Abusic Diplomacy is in full swing.