Year of the open fracture

We really woke up in another country? Or just woke up?

In current policy, the nonlinearity of the process is more clearly visible. As if regular, seasonal weather fluctuations are summarized in climate change, and not only in Russia. And this is not the limit of observations. In nature, the climate also does not change by itself, but due to general, sometimes tectonic shifts. The same in politics. In the history of what depth and dimension, we, excuse me, are now poking? There is such a concept - "size of the event." Understanding the scale of changes eliminates the stuck illusions and suggests options.

In the resonance of two Locks, viral and political, the pandemic becomes perfect and, in fact, a dimensionless occasion to put any public life “to a pause”. For some, this is only a marginal option, but others immediately and joyfully hinder everyone in a row. Forced restrictions in the business and social sphere are copied by politics with a margin and for the future, with selective testing of the “limits of lawlessness”. The defenses of the authorities of the authorities are all the more bristled than weaker the real threats of the opposition close to the anabiosis. “Everything here froze ...”, and it is unclear how seriously and where the dawn is.

The reactions and scripts themselves are changing. At first it seemed that coronaviruses crawl along the railing and door handles in layers, but it was a quick fear, closer to fright. The city, suddenly empty, as in Bergman’s “Strawberry Polyana”, shocked, but instilled the hope that in this vacuum the infection itself would die, and living life would return, enriched with vivid impressions and memories. The fact that history can be delayed or completely become chronic was said, but, as it were, just in case, and rather philosophically. Now such reservations are drawn to insight.

Strictly speaking, this philosophy is already more than half a century. Bioemics have long discussed the risks of unwashed test tubes, the merger of bio -cultures in cleaning laboratories or in experience itself. But the prospect of the global Mora was perceived more like a concept and an image. Once with the “Roman club”, it was reconciled that the real consequences of environmental irresponsibility will certainly hit the current generations, not in Kuntsevo and not on Rublevka. But now, even without the cut of Siberia, environmentally comparable to the forests of the Amazon, the degradation of the West of Moscow and the Moscow Region - our "Switzerland near Moscow". The landscape bald and stires, the species composition of the bugs and birds is noticeably changing, and then the Roshydromet reports that tomorrow the flood is again, and the wind will tear off the roofs and bring down the trees onto the cars.

The virus also seems to go through the levels of an endless computer game. It is already clear that it will not cost here, as once with the horror of all wars with a plague-with a “black death”, or “Spanish”. Collective immunity is based on the promises of politicians and joined scientists to knead the vaccine, to prick and first pester the virus, of course, in Russia, with its science, half -coated inert administration. It is important to defeat both the disease in life and America on the TV, but you can already see how artificial brain ventilation begins to undermine faith and relationship. The recipe for preserving the figure from Plisetskaya: do not eat. Recipe for preserving the trust of society:

No need to lie, and even more so drawing a “sociology” of trust - the skepticism is growing in terms of exponent.

When ten years ago the protest revived and moved from the capitals to the millionaire cities, they immediately rushed to check if there were enough TV resources to keep the situation. The answer was encouraged, but only coupled with political fortification and machinery with barriers and auto -zats. Opposition events were increasingly going to the mass walks of prisoners and permitted dates with leaders. Plus, prohibitive rule -making and “astronauts” detachments, necessary for both the opposition to intimidate and calm the authorities. The masses of security forces and demonstrators should at least visually be commensurate.

All this does not detract from the heroism of the fighters of the political front and the significance of their mission, but the struggle against them is increasingly reminiscent of the fight against the external enemy, but the internal struggle with colleagues for the budget. Tok-show sour in the absence of serious opponents. A anguish from scratch is kindled by hysteria of the grassroots propaganda and network trolling, happily combining the shouting with cowardice of anonymous. Only it seems that all this is separated from the respectable aesthetics of the officials; For many, it is this environment that is fed with the image of the rule. And then suddenly steps begin to count from love to hatred ...

The opposition is constrained, including circumstances. At the peaks of epidemics, thousands of default rallies seem not entirely appropriate, although a demonstration of 600 thousand people (as once on Manezhnaya), located in a checkerboard pattern at a social distance of 1.5 meters from each other, would be an unforgettable format. The community of disagreements generally consists of thousands of different -caliber organizations and millions of individuals found in the so -called instant assemblies . But now this mass is fragmented and almost scattered, and organizations are easily branded by foreign agents with the transition to undesirable ones. For the opposition, this is a matter of limits of the necessary self -defense: "We lose our friends in the morning suddenly, / not knowing how to intercede for them." Once this Bachurinsky hit was a symbol of the dreams of the post-Soviet intelligentsia: “We live in anticipation of cherries, / We live in anticipation of summer, / And for the fact that we breathe only hope, / Let us condemn us later (2 times).” Now for such grades, one can confuse the “broadcast of learned helplessness” with a guarantee, however, the very willingness to not overload the conscience and the brain with the realities of demobilization. The result is the same: "We are sailing and mash with handkerchiefs."

"Where should we swim?"

In the midst of the Minsk events, I heard from one young sociologist very close to me: if it breaks down here, disappointment will be terrible. The topic is not developed, apparently, because the lessons are too painful.

In fact, what was not enough there yet? Everything was so convincingly lost that the leader and retinue of the election topic did not apply at all, neither with the denial of failure, nor with the statement of the victory. The plot fell out of the agenda, as it was not. He was compensated by the surge of exalted concern of the fate of the country and the world. The masterpiece of this opera, suicidal PR - the military sortie Lukashenko under the cells, with AKM and spare horns, at the ready with the son of Kolya in armor as a symbol of the sacred sacrifice.

The protest, on the contrary, remained in memory of full dignity, extremely collected and even sacrificial. Where else did we see such a confrontation of scumbags, reveling atrocities in complete indecence?

Russia made its choice: it has helped the fraternal people in the ais way. The “collecting land” in the conflict with the population - this neutron bomb makes neighbors think about their prospects. The result is expected, but with a new clarity revealing a desperate determination to hold power “according to life indications” and by any means up to. Let the sky fall to the ground, and there is even a flood. For others, this, on the contrary, is a blow to the hopes and prospects of holes not even in speech, but in the most political language. It is difficult to object to discourse analysis.

All this draws other graphs of the process than those to which we are used to. Until the last moment, many advanced people considered Lukashenko as a whole as a decent figure, old -fashioned in management, but at the same time gracefully balancing between Russia and Europe. You can crawl into the dictatorship patiently and slowly - or you can mow for a long time for a long time, only at the last moment falling into open, mass violence. At one time, Nazarbayev quoted the presidency - the reformers of the USSR close to Gorbachev, and it was under him that Kazakhstan began as an example of political civilization in the post -Soviet space. However, when the Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan Akezhan Kazhegeldin, an almost free country with independent business and private media, including TV, was blown away in the 1998 presidential election, including TV, was blown away in a year. So in politics there are risks with unacceptable damage .

The logic of the process is important here. To understand it, it is necessary to change the optics of political vision. We are accustomed to go in analysis from genesis, through “development”, from the past to the present and future. This corresponds to the usual motility of the clock and the “normal” psychophysics of perception. The number here gradually goes into quality. However, this is not a dogma. It is known that the picture in experience with the image turning over the image over time becomes the norm for the brain. If such glasses are removed later, the world again will seem upside down for some time.

The heuristics of political analysis can change not only the top and bottom, but also the future with the past. The reverse look from the present to the past often gives a completely different vision of the process. It can be seen from the collapse of the empire that its assembly was based, to put it mildly, not quite on the crossbreeds that are habitually considered the main ones, but, as it turns out, at the decisive moment is not fastened. A branch of Russian ideas from the Third Rome, Uvarov’s triad, “worldwide responsiveness”, etc. At the beginning of the First World War, did not provide a patriotic rise comparable to other coalition countries. The hurricane Soviet atheism in the opposite move is differently highlighted by the properties of our religion - the fact that, according to the installations of Toynby, it is considered a support for civilizations, including the Russian Orthodox. All this helps to understand why the country “went for Lenin and Trotsky, and not for Dostoevsky and Solovyov” (C).

The same with modernity. It turns out that well -known qualities of even relatively herbivores can be formed much earlier, and then only realized quantitatively, sometimes spasmodic and indefinitely. Reverse optics gives new assessments and forecasts: a fracture that happened earlier, but softening the lameness of the system, is suddenly made “open” in life and analytically.

It is important to understand that this is not just about the graphs of the implementation of politics, but about completely different coordinates and measurements of the process, about the special vector of history. And this approach is far from today's revelation. “What will happen, then for a long time in the past” (Pasternak). Schlegel called the historian "a prophet, predicting back." But even the classical aphorism of Marx: “Human anatomy is the key to the anatomy of the monkey” - rarely follow, although everything here is very, very vital. First, doctors write a diagnosis based on an anamnesis - and then with a patanate, according to the results of the opening, it discovers a different picture of the course of the disease, or even a completely different reason for the patient's care.

Moreover, here we are in contact with the covenants of a special philosophy, in particular, with the metaphysics of direct and reverse perspective (Erwin Panofsky, Florensky). The main revelation here is that the opposite prospect of the Byzantine and Russian icon does not arise from the inability to “competently” to reduce the line of construction to the gathering point, but expresses a special perception of the world that does not narrow in the distance, but is distributed , extends . This is not just graphics, namely the worldview and world sensation-transcendence, a different form of openness.

For political history, it is important that such reverse optics is possible not only in the space of images, but also in a similar vision of time. This isomorphism is amazing-the structural semblance of the composition of “personnel” in the picture and the film, in statics and dynamics. It turns out that inside the space of history you can not only sit “along the train”, but also “walk” back and forth, unfolding in the angles of a linear or reverse perspective. Such opportunities greatly help build scripts and forecasts, understanding the very direction of the general movement of the history of interest to us.

Nowadays, all this seems non -normal. But it seems that postmodern was somewhat overwhelmed with the denial of progress, the arrows of time, binary oppositions of the highest and lower, etc. Audi suspension still exceeds the wheels of chariots, and the average basketball team of the Russian Federation will easily take the legendary Belov team or the old All Stars. It’s just painful to imagine. The same with football or gymnastics. And with politics. A view of history in the usual linear perspective, from the past to the present and future, more often focuses on the frequency of return to non -freedom. Hence the ideas about "constants", etc. However, even from the present, even from the current, not the most liberal situation shows the cumulative, although sometimes very modest accumulations of freedom. The currently experienced realities are mentally placed consistently in the era of the Brezhnev stagnation, Stalin's totalitarianism, Trotskyist-Leninist Bolshevism ... Something can be cut, but something nevertheless will not fit.

In the historical movement, something irreversible is gradually accumulating, which can no longer be etching, at least in the most creative and crucial segments of society.

The presence of this vector, apparently, forces both inhabitants and professionals to call impulses not free reaction . One can, of course, believe that right now and in Russia, such a total focus of the oscillations of the general political climate is canceled, but this must be proved that it is not easy. The fracture is still not amputation. And this is unlikely to be a great compliment for Russian political culture and civilization.

This is the whole paradox. Oddly enough, it is the usual optics of genesis and “development” that can have a special form of oblivion, when the past is idealized, so as not to think about the hopeless future (in Sigmont Bauman, this is called retroope). Now talking about the future is generally risky: you can either burden or jinx it. And it seems that this year has completely been established in a very traditional orientation of the system. In addition, a narcissistic trick is especially popular here, when they love not a story in themselves, but themselves in history. The very nature of modernity here is looking for almost exclusively in the past, in the origins and "genes", in the abuse of disasters and the heroism of the accomplishments that fills their native history. Caves of soil and blood, invasions and struggle against adversaries for life, food and property, for property and independence. The explorations of expansion and mission, the development of territories and the collection of lands, the sacrificial fraternal intercession (we will not only stand at the homeland at the price) ... The features of the bright and desired future are trying to discern in the "generic" mutual influences, in the history of gaining identity and sovereignty. And even better - in the supposedly innate nature and other properties of our civilizational "nature". There is a complete impression that we have absorbed even worldwide responsiveness with the milk of the mother-story, but now it is not necessary to absorb anything: all the best is already in our genes, especially in “extra” ones. This allegedly excludes the question of who is more valuable to the mother-story. However, the heights of past achievements never work as an indulgence of future basements and an alibi breakdowns.

Ordinary Lokdown is by no means a free event. Therefore, it is so complicated in making a decision and always dosed. Political Lockdown is also not a gift action. It is expensive for society - economics, creative, individual and collective psyche, and social morality. Its side effects are more delayed, but also penetrate deeper, sometimes “temporarily irreversible”. Especially fraught with the resonance of the elbows (which is why we just started). Especially if you take into account that the inhibitory, a lulling effect close to an artificial coma, strongly hurts resource society and raw materials, depending on the consumption of kerosene and redistribution of raw annuity.

In the large future, all these are the topics of civilizational eschatology, the study of processes and circumstances, if not the death of civilizations, then their transition to other qualities. Sooner or later, but the time comes when selfies are replaced by documentary chronic and caricatures, and people who are free in grades are rewritten, and well, if not too angry. At the same time, it happens that it is victorious carbon fumes that gives nervous areas: something has risen over the city, it sometimes smells in the air, albeit not a thunderstorm, but by ozone, and it is not always clear where exactly. In such cases, the main participants in the process have to choose between confrontation, the struggle to defeat and dreams of a complete victory - and the general quality of life in the country at the allotted time. We can indefinitely quote the wise Iskander: "In the word" victory "I will hear the triumphant stomp of fools."