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Results - 2021. Be independent or friendly from Russia. That's the question

January 9, 2022 Arkady Dubnov

I wrote this text with a summ of 2021 in the space of the former USSR at the end of December, a couple of days after the 30th anniversary of his, union, collapse, legal design of which happened on December 21, 1991 in Alma-Ata. And who could know that exactly 30 years and two more weeks later, in the early days of January 2022, the capital of already sovereign Kazakhstan, renamed Almaty, will become an arena of tragic bloody events, which in a strange way will let down the dramatic feature of the first post-Soviet 30th anniversary of one almost the most successful example of creating a post-Soviet state. Kazakhstan, who was built by Nursultan Nazarbayev, who was even a member of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the CPSU in the last historical era. No - in the sense that the attempt of the Soviet politician to build an electoral autocracy in the spirit of the post -Soviet modernity failed. The hereditary misunderstanding, led by the lifelong ruler, seemed to collapse. What will happen instead of her, we will write, summing up the results of the coming year, fucking ...

In the text below, the author mentioned the cat, which ran out of Russia and Kazakhstan last year. At the beginning of the new 2022, this “cat” was reached so that it was already in Kazakhstan.

Several thousand Russian military under the CSTO flag found themselves in a neighboring country. There is reason to assume that the above “cat” will be a symbol of the next period in life in the spaces of the former USSR ...

In the meantime, how it was seen a couple of weeks ago.

You need to start for health, but for the rest, as usual, then.

So, the 2021st, however, like the 2020, was for the post-Soviet space, at least for one part of it, stunningly successfully. Of course, I mean Turkmenistan. Only there, in this Allah, the saved corner of world space, as we have been informed, for the second year now, thanks to the desperate passes of the local Arkadag (patron saint in Turkmen), has never flew out of the enemy Covid.

We are used to pity to relate to urban crazy people, it may seem that it is also possible for world crazy. But here is another, this people have been poisoning and tormenting for 15 years, and everything is in no way for the world ...

This is still a successful one: still, and again, the glory of Allah, have not overthrew the extreme in account - the sixth, it seems - President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Zhaparov. Although there was a reason - parliamentary elections this fall. After all, it was in the wake of protests according to the results of last year's elections that Zheparov left the imprisonment and after a few days he headed the country. It’s not easy for him, a partner, the head of the National Security Committee, Kamchybek Tashiev, who served him by a power ram during last year’s coup, breathes into the back of the head. Until now, not everyone in Kyrgyzstan can say exactly who is the first in this tandem and who is the second ... By the way, I suspect that they will not immediately answer this question in the Kremlin.

There are other successful moments in the life of Kyrgyzstan and its citizens. The country recently became part of the organization of the Turkic states (OTG), established on November 12, S.G. In Istanbul. Azerbaijan also became its members. Kazakhstan. Türkiye and Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan joined as an observer.

To say that this event markedly affected the lives of most residents of Central Asia would be a great exaggeration. Nevertheless, the emphasis of the Turkic solidarity, the appeal to a single ethnic identity, all this means the desire for a certain isolation from the general Soviet past. Moreover, given that the obvious locomotive in the OTG is Türkiye led by the ambitious Record Erdogan. However, the first president of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev can also share the laurels of the ideological leader of the Turkic world with the full basis. It is no coincidence that the cultural capital of OTG, he persistently calls on to consider the oldest city of Turkestan in the south of Kazakhstan.

One way or another, this new organization, uniting five post-Soviet states, created in the year of the 30th anniversary of the death of the USSR, but did not include Russia, a former Soviet metropolis, means a noticeable stage in reformatting the CIS space. One way or another, but this event, by chance or not, but coincided in time with the ultimatum of the Kremlin addressed to the United States, which is directly related to the fate of the post -Soviet space.

But more on that below.

In the meantime, back to Kyrgyzstan, my beloved country in Central Asia. At the end of April of this year, a bloody conflict occurred on its border with Tajikistan, 56 people died there for several hours. It is still not settled, and this bloody wound speaks a lot about the nature of the ruling regimes in this part of the world, where, on the one hand, not too legal democracy, and on the other, the maximum and tired of his own decrepitude, the Asian autocracy. Let me remind you that for the 30th year Tajikistan has been ruled by the former Soviet sailor Emomali Rahmon.

This year, for him was a “star”, incredibly “glorifying” Chanobi Olya (“His Excellency” in Tajik, it is customary to call Rahmon in Tajikistan). The reason for this is a repeated coming to power in Afghanistan by the Taliban movement (prohibited in Russia). Dushanbe answered this categorical “no”, supporting the resistance to the Taliban from the Afghan Tajiks. Their leaders, the son of the legendary Afghan Mojahidean Masuda Ahmad Masud Jr. and vice president of Afghanistan under ex-president Ashraf Gani, Amrullah Salekh, found refuge in Tajikistan.

There are various versions of the reasons for such an Afront Dushanbe. Among them, the desire to appear as a defender of the main Afghan ethnic minority (according to various estimates, Tajiks make up about a third of the population of Afghanistan) and thus strengthen their rating as the National Leader of Tajikistan on the eve of the imminent transit of power in the country. In addition, this can attract the attention of the world community to the figure of Rahmon against the backdrop of events in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of American troops from there and ensure an influx to foreign assistance, because the huge Tajik-Afghan border remains the main channel of drug trafficking and the infiltration of terrorists.

The position of Rahmon turned out to be the “perpendicular” estimates of other CA countries that happened in Afghanistan, they make it clear that such a policy of Dushanbe can contribute to the continuation of the Civil War in Afghanistan. In all other capitals of the region, Gani's flight and the return of the Taliban to Kabul as a real change of power were appreciated. Based on this, it was proposed to act by providing humanitarian assistance to the Afghan population and ensuring the interests of their own security.

The dramatic conclusion of the US military from Afghanistan could not but have the consequences for the situation in Central Asia, where the threats of flowing terrorist activity on the other side of the “river” reacted seriously. Strengthening military assistance to Tajikistan from Russia was a response to these concern. However, assistance was proposed not only to Tajikistan, the Russian-Uzbek military-technical cooperation intensified. In the summer, joint Russian-Uzbek-Tajik military exercises near borders with Afghanistan were held.

In general, the departure of America from Central Asia expectedly led to increased Russian influence in the region.

But the states attempts to receive good from a number of countries of the region to place their military structures in their territories for possible counteraction to terrorists on the other side of the “river” were unsuccessful. In Moscow, they tried to reproduce such a development of events, publicly bringing to the attention of their partners that such actions are unacceptable. In fairness, it should be noted that the partners themselves were in no hurry to deal with the Americans, delicately explaining this with fears for becoming targets for terrorists.

And here it will be appropriate to return to the Russian ultimatum to Washington, regarding the “red lines”, outlining the conditions of Russian security, which should be legally executed. One of the points is worthy to quote it completely: “The United States should not create bases on the territory of states that were previously included in the USSR and are not NATO members, as well as use their infrastructure for conducting any military activity, develop bilateral military cooperation with them.”

Of course, these formidable warnings relate not only to Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and in general the topic of NATO expansion to the east that is so nervous of the Kremlin. It is logical to attribute this to the cooperation of the West with the countries of Central Asia. In other words, everything that has not yet become the NATO area, that is, excluding the Baltic countries, should be legally recognized as a zone of special interests of Russia, Tchk!

Meanwhile, in mid -December, just a couple of days before the transfer of the Ultimatum project, the US State Department, who had arrived in Moscow, in Tashkent, took place in the inaugural meeting of the strategic dialogue between the United States and Uzbekistan. Within its framework, a discussion of issues of military cooperation is also indicated ... various kinds of such cooperation also exists between the USA and Kazakhstan.

It is difficult to say how to react to Russian invectives in Tashkent and Nur Sultan.

And if in Moscow extremely carefully and extremely delicately tries to furnish their relations with Tashkent, who is still dreaming of drawing into the EAEU and CSTO, then the atmosphere of Russian-Kazakh cooperation looks different now.

Then, as if a black cat ran between Moscow and Nur Sultan.

The meaning of Russian reproaches and suspicions converges to the banal: there is a “Ukrainization” of Kazakhstan, that is, a departure from the country's strict orientation to follow the fairway of Russian politics, to the desire to become part of the big external world in order to draw its technology and innovation, avoiding sanctions restrictions that fraught with close economic cooperation with Russia.

In short, such sovereign states as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan do not want to be hostages of the Kremlin’s fight with the West for recognizing the ambitions of Russia, which became the successor of the USSR, and for the right to be the ruler of fate in the Bose of the empire.

Everything that happens today around Ukraine is the quintessence of this fight.

As for the drama, experienced for the second year in Belarus, except for the use of the term “fucking shame far from the political science”, I can’t describe my attitude to how my country covers the crimes of the dictator who usered the dictator from the Vitebsk hinterland. You can also add to this how the Kremlin’s ideological servant justifies his policy in relation to Minsk.

“Russia is a problem of how not to absorb Belarus and preserve it as an independent neighbor and ... to ensure its friendly character. The integration of Belarus into the European International Order, in the center of which the EU and NATO are located, will threaten Russia's security ”(from the Valdai club report). Everything is wonderful and honest here - it is very difficult to “not absorb”, but how else to turn it away from the “European order” in order to return to his native Asian ...

Basically, about the 2021st everything. You can also about hints of Armenian-Azerbaijani reconciliation in the South Caucasus with the mediation of Russia and the EU, but I'm afraid to jinx it.

Let's wait ...

Photo: Arkady Dubnov/Facebook.com; Twitter.com/karmabash