Will the Central Bank ban cryptocurrencies, Sberbaus Baybeki for 50 billion and Korean attack Netflix

The Central Bank proposed banning mining and circulation of cryptocurrencies in Russia. Market participants believe that nothing will come of it

The market has been waiting for this from the end of last year - and this happened: the Central Bank released a devastating report on cryptocurrencies, in which he proposed to completely ban their mining and turnover in Russia. But the fate of these proposals may be difficult - according to The Bell, the rest of the departments do not consider such severe restrictions justified. Market participants predictably took them with hostility - he assures that the proposals of the Central Bank are impossible, and instead of a controlled cryptor, the regulator will receive black.

What's happened

Representatives of the Central Bank directly hinted at the possibility of a complete ban on the turnover of cryptocurrencies in Russia from the end of last year (“I give a hint - we do not see a cryptocurrency in the Russian Finrap,” said Vladimir Chistyukhin, for example, in December). Now this position is formally formalized. Today, the Central Bank published the report “Cryptocurrencies: Trends, Risks, Measures” and held his presentation with answers to questions.

Central Bank offers:

• To introduce in Russia the ban and responsibility for organizing the release (mining), circulation and exchange of cryptocurrencies, including crypto-rhizas, crypto exchangers and P2P platforms.
• Enter the ban for financial organizations on own investments in cryptocurrencies and related financial instruments, as well as the use of Russian financial intermediaries and financial market infrastructure for any cryptocurrency operations.
• Stablecoins - cryptocurrencies tied to fiat currencies (a classic example - tether, whose course is attached to the dollar should also be banned.
• To introduce liability for Russian legal entities and individuals for violation of the ban on the use of cryptocurrency as a means of payment. There is no question of criminal cases - it is proposed to be punished for violations, the director of the Department of Financial Stability of the Central Bank, Elizaveta Danilova, who submitted a report, said.

The Central Bank does not offer:

• prohibit the possession of cryptocurrencies;
• Conduct operations with cryptocurrencies in foreign jurisdictions. At the same time, the Central Bank wants to get the right to collect information about such operations, although it admits that there are no mechanisms that allow this to do this. In order to get them, the Central Bank wants to include data on the operations of Russian residents on crypto -rhizas in international agreements on the exchange of information and ensure the receipt of information from international payment systems on the purchase of cryptocurrencies by Russians. Also, the State Duma is already preparing for the second reading a bill that will oblige citizens and organizations to inform the Federal Tax Service about operations with digital currencies for more than 600 thousand rubles a year.

Why is it necessary

The Central Bank has listed several risks associated with the spread of cryptocurrencies and forcing it to introduce a ban:

• The threat to the well -being of Russians. The risk of loss of funds is many times higher than when investing in many other financial assets-due to the volatility of cryptocurrencies and their concentration in the hands of a narrow circle of owners, which creates opportunities for manipulation. Cryptocurrencies have a sign of a financial pyramid - their growth is maintained in demand from the participants that are newly included in the market, the Central Bank noted. In addition, it is easier to lose money in crypto, as a result of fraud and hacker attacks - and the possibilities of the investor’s legal protection are limited.
• The growth in the share of cryptocurrencies in the economy will lead to a decrease in the effect of the Candidate policy of the Central Bank-to contain inflation, it will be necessary to constantly maintain a high key rate.
• The outflow of funds to cryptocurrencies from shares and bonds can lead to a fall in the Russian stock market, and from deposits to a decrease in the financial stability of banks. From the point of view of the payment balance, the mass purchase of cryptocurrency by the population means the outflow of capital and the weakening of the ruble.
• Cryptocurrencies are used to make payments within the framework of criminal activity, and mining negatively affects the environment.
• Most of all, the Central Bank is worried that if an infrastructure appears in Russia, which will simplify the purchase of cryptocurrencies, then not only qualified investors, but also people who do not understand and do not understand risks rush to buy it. Then, if the course collapses, it is precisely the Central Bank that will turn out and it will carry the main, including political risks, says one of The Bell's interlocutors who know about the discussions within the regulator.

What will happen next

The document is entitled as a “report for public consultations” - it will still be discussed with the market and other government agencies. The Central Bank, along with the Ministry of Finance, Rosfinmonitoring, the Federal Tax Service and six more departments, including the FSB, is included in the interdepartmental group, which discusses the issue of regulation of cryptocurrencies, a source familiar with the course of discussion told The Bell.

At the meetings of this group, scenarios of possible regulation were discussed, a source familiar with the course of the discussion told The Bell. And if radical scenarios - to leave everything as it is or completely legalize cryptocurrencies, as in Salvador - all the members of the group rejected unanimously, then the opinions parted further.

For a complete ban on mining and surgery with cryptocurrency, as in China, only the Central Bank voted, says the interlocutor The Bell. He was the only departments (including power), which voted against establishing a softer regulatory limit-as was done, for example, in Japan or Sweden, says the interlocutor of The Bell.

On Thursday afternoon, Bloomberg said that the proposal to ban cryptocurrencies is inspired by the FSB, which thus wants to stop financing the opposition. But this contradicts the information about the position of the security forces that The Bell has.

Even if there are supporters of a complete ban in the FSB, the entire department as a whole did not share such a position, says the informed source of The Bell in the crypto.

What do they think on a crypto

The restrictions proposed by the Central Bank will solve either the problem of leaving money from supervision, or the growth of investment in crypto assets, one of the crypto -investors believes. Russia is already a number one market in turnover cryptocurrencies in the world and talk about the prohibition late, he is sure. In his opinion, the Central Bank will not be able to restore the P2P operation and payments to the crypto-foam, the interlocutor The Bell notes. To do this, I would have to completely stop all the translations between individuals, another agrees.

The fact that the Central Bank actually pushes Russian crypto -investors to leave foreign jurisdictions is also strange - because there are no tools that will monitor transactions in foreign markets, the regulator, says one of the sources. “If the Central Bank demanded that exchanges and exchangers work with a banking license, check all the flows in Rosfinmonitoring and comply with the FZ-115 on countering the laundering of income, it would have received at least some control. The same as he offers now is the path to cryptor and complete loss of control, ”he said.

The third interlocutor The Bell gives as an example of the results of prohibitive regulation the famous cluster of “black” crypto exchangers in Moscow City-if it were not for the actual ban for Russian banks for large operations with crypto-rhizas, this market would hardly be prosperous, he said. “As a result, cryptocurrency is bought“ in black ”, and the regulators have no chance to understand who buys it and where it translates - not that taxes to collect taxes,” he says.

The Central Bank has practically no tools for identifying transactions with cryptocurrencies, the deputy chairman of the board of the Russian Tax Consultants Mikhail Uspensky, who took part in the development of a bill on digital financial assets, agrees. “Even if the Central Bank forces banks to block payments for certain MSS codes, he will only achieve that all the sites that are ready to work“ are in charge ”are eliminated, follow the rules and check customers, and only gray and black players will remain on the market who will engage in misking and bypass the prohibitions in various illegal methods,” the lawyer believes.

What am I to me?

It is too early to panic with crypto -investors. The discussion of radical proposals of the Central Bank is just beginning - and hard restrictions have influential opponents. Most likely, the discussion will be delayed - if not for the whole 2022, then on a significant part of it. But in one form or another, the market will be regulated - it is already necessary to start thinking out the departure paths.

The authors of the article are Alexander Chunov and Valery Pozichanyuk

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