"Right now, Russia is bathing in money." Chronicles of hospitalism

The crisis around Ukraine was still in the center of the agenda last week. The new round of negotiations-this time between the heads of diplomatic departments of the United States and the Russian Federation in Geneva-did not have any encouraging result. The statement of Minister Sergei Lavrov, who was already preceding the meeting, that he did not expect from discussing the situation with his colleague Anthony Blinken “Breakthrough” seemed to characterize the mindset of people from Smolensk Square. If the Foreign Minister, as earlier and his deputy, from the threshold states that he does not hope to agree on discharge or at least outline the description paths, involuntarily creeps the suspicion that the compromise is not at all what Putin's diplomacy is actually striving for.

Then what is she striving for? What does Vladimir Putin ultimately want? This question, which permeates the events of recent months , invariably hangs in the air as no answer. The soul of the dictator is dark. The real Putin, overwhelmed by earthly passions, is opposed by the synthetic image of the Russian leader, masterfully planning his dangerous geopolitical tricks for many moves forward. This perception of the head of state, which implies a rare combination of tactical skill and strategic in and the dance, gives rise to curious interpretations. A transparent hint of one of these contains the analytical report S&P, which RBC reported to RBC about the week:

“The geopolitical uncertainty around Ukraine raised the prices for energy resources, and Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas in the world.”

Part of the Ukrainian Plan of the Kremlin is the growth of currency revenue from the sale of expensive energy resources in the record volumes of the Ministry of Finance bought by the Ministry of Finance to replenish the National Welfare Fund? So, of course, no one seriously raises the question. But the dynamics of prices for only oil - regardless of the growth of tension in the Middle East - is tempting observers to talk about it in connection with the risks of military conflict.

Charles Robertson, the main economist of Renaissance Capital, writes that “Russia is swimming in money right now”, and its export is growing by 41% in annual calculation, bringing $ 1.2 billion daily (“A reminder that when the oil exporter increases geopolitical risk, he earns more money”).

Yes, just in this case to be understood by "Russia"?

Kremlin.ru

The man -made crises that undermine the trust of the market, already briefly, bypass the country in a disproportionest benefit from fleeting outlets of the conjuncture (even if that in the moment it is possible to additionally enrich local kleptocracy). This is clearly visible at least for the long sanctions train, with which Russia has been living since 2014.

In 2014-18, according to IMF estimates , the sanctions slowed down the Russian economy on average by 0.2 pp annually, the outflow of capital from the country for the same period was an average of 2% of GDP. The river of direct foreign investment was sharply grinned, which in other years did not even up to $ 10 billion. Last year in this sense, the Russian Federation turned out to be more successful for the Russian Federation, the country attracted $ 30.7 billion - nevertheless, it was still half as much than ten years ago. Russian issuers are trading with a geopolitical discount. The same factor hits the ruble. In 2012, the capitalization of the Moscow Exchange market, according to S&P estimates, amounted to more than $ 1 trillion, 10 years later - a third less. At the end of 2014, after the first in the series of postcrymic exchange collapses, a comparison of the stock market in the country with the cost of one single American company - Apple was popular. Then it cost $ 652 billion - against $ 384.9 billion, the prices of all shares of Russian issuers according to the results of December 15, “Black Monday”. Now, taking into account the next fall in the shares market last week, it is approximately equal to only a quarter of Apple, which became the first business company in the world in world history to rise in price to $ 3 trillion. We are waiting for the Apple logo - a bitten apple - will become an accurate visualization of the weight of the stock market of the Russian Federation in comparison with the capitalization of the technological giant from Cupertino.

Dmitry Medvedev and Steve Jobs, 2010 / Kremlin.ru

The list of economic consequences of the Kremlin’s foreign policy, of course, is much wider. But the above, perhaps, will be enough for a reminder of what the game with geopolitical risk is fraught with. And also about how cleverly President Putin replays his opponents and cunningly wraps the critical situation in the benefit of the long -term interests of his own country. In fresh chronicles of hospitalism :

State Revision. "Ethnic enclaves enhance the isolation of migrants"

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