Photo: Alexey Nikolsky / Press Service of the President of the Russian Federation / TASS

"It's time for retirement"

How the Russian ruling elite is aging with Putin. Research of "important stories"

In 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin will turn 70 years old. “Important stories” considered the average age of senior officials, found out how it changed over the past 10 years, and found out how much older or younger officials in other countries

"Stayed"

A year ago, the Levada Center* asked the Russians if they want to see Vladimir Putin as president after 2024, after his current term. Most of the respondents negatively (there were 42 % of them - this is a maximum of 2014), explained this by the fact that Putin was “stayed”, “it's time for retirement”, “it was time to rest” (22 % answered). Another 11 % believe that the problem is: Putin is “old”, and “we need young”, “need a fresh look”.

In 2022, Vladimir Putin will turn 70 years old. According to a survey conducted by the Levada Center* in 2020, 62 % of Russians want the president’s marginal age to be legally limited; 35 % do not want the president to be a pensioner, and 23 % advocate a limitation on reaching 70 years.

Scenario: Ales Marokhovskaya, Irina Dolinina. Editor: Roman Anin.

Due to the long term of Vladimir Putin’s power, his presidency is compared with the “Brezhnev Stague” in the USSR-when the average age of members of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the CPSU exceeded 60 years ( Brezhnev led the USSR from 1964 to 1982. - approx. Ed. ). The average age of the entire Brezhnev cohort of the authorities (which included not only the highest leadership, but also the government, as well as the parliamentary and regional elites) was 55.9 years, follows from the study of the scientists of the Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, which have analyzed the age of the elite since 1984 ( by that time, the highest leadership still consisted of Brezhnev’s people, researchers noted . During the reign of Mikhail Gorbachev (1985-1991), the average age of senior officials decreased to 51.6 years, under Boris Yeltsin (was the President of Russia from 1991 to 1999) - to 50.2 years, and at the beginning of the presidency of Vladimir Putin he amounted to 50.9 years.

From the very beginning of his reign, President Putin repeated more than once that the country was needed by young politicians: in 2007 he was going to involve young politics, in 2013 he hoped that young political leaders would appear in Russia, in 2021 he announced the desire to “see patriotic youth in politics”.

However, in recent years, the average age of senior officials in Russia has grown to 55 years (more details in the chapter “As we thought”). At the same time, almost half of the Russian youth does not approve of the activities of the current government. Today, 48 % of Russians at the age of 18–24 believe that the country is moving along the wrong path, and 46 % of representatives of the same age group do not approve of the president’s activities, follows from the Levada Center survey*, conducted in 2021.

As we thought

To calculate the middle age of the highest echelon of the Russian authorities, we have collected data on how many years (as of January 2022) to officials from the leadership of key authorities: this is the leadership of the Presidential Administration, government members, senators from the Federation Council, State Duma deputies, members of the Council of Security, the State Council and the Head of the Federal Services and Agencies. Separately, we calculated how many years to the heads of all regions of the country.

For comparison with other countries, we limited the list of officials from the highest bodies of the legislative and executive authorities:

Russia: the Federal Assembly (consists of two chambers - the State Duma and the Federation Council) and the government;

Belarus: the National Assembly (consists of two chambers - the House of Representatives and the Council of the Republic) and the Government (Council of Ministers);

Ukraine: the Verkhovna Rada and the Government (Cabinet of Ministers);

Kazakhstan: Parliament (Senate and Mazhilis) and the government;

USA: Congress (Senate and House of Representatives) and the Government (Cabinet of Ministers);

Great Britain: Parliament (House of Lords and the House of Commons) and the Cabinet of Ministers;

Germany: Bundestag, Bundesrat and the government;

France: Parliament (Senate and National Assembly) and the government.

To calculate the share of retirement officials, we focused on the border, which was established by Russian laws for this year: for men, the age of retirement in 2022 is 61.5 years, for women - 56.5 years.

Sources of data: Dates of the birth of officials - biographies on official websites of state departments; Lists of current officials for 2012 - anti -corruption declarations for 2012, published on the sites of state bodies and in the base " Declarator ".

Why are we talking about middle age

The most common way to determine the average value is the calculation of the arithmetic mean. But if the values ​​in the data set are very different, the arithmetic mean can distort the picture: for example, when falling values ​​are found in a number of numbers, as a very high or low age compared to the rest. In such cases, it is considered to be a median: it shows the number in the middle of an ordered set of numbers and will mean that half of the officials are at the age of this border, and half - lower.

In most cases we have considered, median coincides with the arithmetic mean, therefore, the study used the concept of middle age for simplicity. In cases where the median differs from the average, we additionally give its value.

"People with Soviet performances"

The most “age” Higher authority in Russia is the Security Council (Councils). The average age of its members is 62 years (median - 65 years). Here is the highest share of pensioners in the leadership: 57 % of the Council of People's Commissars crossed this threshold. This authority is engaged in the "protection of the state from external and internal threats." Now it is in the Security Council that “cases like foreign agency and recognition of an unwanted organization are discussing,” political scientist Konstantin Gaaza told “important stories”.

Support those who tell the truth about the Russian officials of the donation will help us tell more storiesto support “important stories”

The career of many members of the Security Council began in the state bodies of the USSR, which, as experts note, could affect the activation of their activities to search for “external and internal enemies” recently. “In the Security Council, the concentration of people, we will call them conditionally with“ Soviet ideas ”. The [Nikolai] Patrushev himself, the head of the council, is a person obsessed with conspiracy theories, which partly leaves his mark on his age and the time that his views were formed and his career, because his career is entirely connected with the special services, says Andrey Kolesnikov, political scientist, head of the Russian domestic policy and political institutions of the Moscow Center of Carnegie. - This is one of the conservative organs, where people are concentrated, among other things. Their biography, a specialty plus age give a completely explosive effect in the form of such a [conspiracy] attitude to the world. ”

In second place in the most “advanced” average age - the presidential administration (AP), which ensures the activities of Vladimir Putin and monitors the implementation of his decisions. The average age of the administration is 58 years (median - 57 years). A third of the leaders in the AP have already crossed the threshold of retirement age.

Similar indicators of the upper house of parliament - the Federation Council. The average age of its members is 57 years (median - 58 years). The Federation Council is in second place on the proportion of pensioners in their composition: 39 % of senators are in retirement age. It is in the Federation Council that the most “age” Russian official at the leading post is 92-year-old Senator Nikolai Ryzhkov. His political career began 47 years ago - even under Leonid Brezhnev. In 2020, Ryzhkov became one of the ten “inert senators” who did not submit a single bill for the entire period of the previous convocation to the State Duma, follows from the rating of the Institute for Social Research and the Development of Civil Initiatives.

The average age of State Duma deputies is 53 years, among them - 25 % of pensioners. The oldest deputy is 85-year-old Vladimir Resin. He has been elected to the State Duma since 2011 and during this time he did not say a word at the meetings, they found out “important stories”. Political scientist Andrei Kolesnikov believes that the preservation of bureaucratic status in the case of the oldest parliamentarians, such as Vladimir Resin or Nikolai Ryzhkov, is a “merit reward”. “Resin is such a fragment of the Luzhkov era, a person is very influential, a lot of people helped. And, probably, this is a form of gratitude. Why should he show the initiative if he is simply in this status? If he remembers him at all, says Kolesnikov. - The same with Ryzhkov in the Federation Council. Probably, he is now not up to legislative initiatives. These are rather purely honorary posts. ”

The average age of members of the government, which for the most part consists of federal ministers, is 54 years (median - 55 years). A quarter of government members are pensioners. The most elderly minister is the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov, who will turn 72 in 2022.

The same average age (54 years) for heads of federal departments and agencies, among them 29 % of pensioners. The three oldest leaders include the head of the Federal Security Service (FSB)-70-year-old Alexander Bortnikov.

The youngest Russian leadership officials were governors: the average age of the heads of regions is 51 years (median - 50 years); 12 % of governors are in retirement age.

The closer to the president, the more noticeable aging and lower the change of power

Together with Vladimir Putin, the rest of the Russian government is also aging: the average age of officials under the current president is growing every year. Most of all, compared to 2012, the average age of members of the Council of Security and Government increased. The highest officials of these departments were “old” on average for seven years in a ten -year term (the median age of members of the Security Council grew by nine years, governments - by eight years).

On average, for six years, officials at leading posts in the presidential administration grew up (the median age has grown by five years). The average age of employees in parliament (both State Duma deputies and members of the Federation Council) increased by two years.

The only exception was the heads of the regions - over 10 years the average age of governors decreased, but only by a year (median - by two years).

Changing the middle age of the Russian ruling elite directly depends on the rotation of personnel in high positions. “The power is changing, a constant process of rotation is taking place,” said Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov, who himself has been holding a leading position in the AP for more than 20 years. However, a significant part of the highest officials of Russia, who held their posts at the time of the beginning of the new - the third Putin presidential term in 2012, remains in their places and now, showed the study of “important stories”.

The closer the state authority to the president, the lower the level of change of power. Over 10 years, the composition of the members of the Security Council has changed only half: 49 % of the Council officials who served there in 2012 remain in their places today. In the presidential administration over 10 years, management officials did not change to 39 % of the posts. The president personally appoints and dismisses the members of the Security Council and the leadership of the AP.

“Indeed, the closer to the head of state, the less rotation, since everything is vertical with us. “Politburo”, of course, the president’s nearby circle is not enough, ”Political scientist Andrei Kolesnikov confirms. - The main property of this power at its top is irremovability. And the lack of rotation is one of the main disadvantages of the system that they built. Still, the main, key figures never fell out of different spheres of power. This is evidence of ossification and readiness to sit to the last, clinging to state power. ”

In those authorities, the formation of which by law depends on the elections, rotation is higher. So, the composition of the Federation Council over 10 years has changed by 85 %, the State Duma - by 67 %. However, according to experts, this rotation does not mean that power is really replaced. “The Federation Council is a place where the pre -retirees are unloaded, and then they naturally go [to retirement]. Or, conversely, there are people who are preparing for a possible career take-off, and they are waiting for some appointments to the executive branch, being the chairmen of committees there. That is, there is a natural rotation, although it is not a sign of the change of power, ”said Andrei Kolesnikov. According to him, the rotation in the State Duma is provided by elections. “Each election is an occasion to present some new persons to the voter. This again does not mean serious change, because these faces are usually even worse from the point of view of their ideological views than the previous cohort, ”says the political scientist.

Andrey
Kolesnikov Political scientist, head of the Russian Internal Policy and Political Institutes of the Moscow Center of Carnegie

An exception to the list of officials appointed by the President was the composition of the government, which over 10 years has changed by 76 %. This happened only in 2020, when Putin appointed a new prime minister and almost entirely updated the Cabinet of Ministers ( according to the old constitution, which was operating in 2020, the president appointed federal ministers, formally on the proposal of the Prime Minister. - approx. Ed. ). However, despite the updating of the composition of the government, it did not become younger: the average age of the new government is higher than ten years earlier.

The composition of the heads of Russian regions was even more updated: over 10 years, power has changed in 82 % of the regions. The most massive wave of the resignation of the governors fell on 2017-2018, when the heads of 40 regions were replaced. Then Vladimir Putin explained that the purpose of the resignations is to form the Governor’s corps “from young, promising, modern people”, but the average age of regions has not yet been significantly reduced.

“The president has a request for rejuvenation. But we are talking about rejuvenation at an average level. His friends remain his “higher circle”, higher officials remain in their places. Nevertheless, they need a change. Putin is going to live longer than his close circle, so he will soon need young loyalists at the highest posts, ”says political scientist Andrei Kolesnikov. -Many people go through a trial period through the “Young Leaders of Russia” system, through vice-governor posts, through the posts of regional ministers. The new young technocrats are required that they are effective so that the population does not rebel in their regions, so that social assistance is provided on time, so that loyalty is bought on time, so that the budget is replenished at the federal level. These problems should solve relatively young, new technocrats, they are needed for those who are upstairs. Putin will sit as much as he needs, but he will need the support of the young cohort of managers. ”

Between Belarus and Kazakhstan

The average age of the leadership of the highest bodies of the legislative and executive authorities of Russia is 55 years. This is higher than in Belarus, where President Alexander Lukashenko is in the position of head of state 28th year, and his next victory in the elections in 2020 led to civilian protests. There, the average age of officials of the same link is 53 years. Members of the Parliament of Belarus are on average younger Russian for a year, and government members are two years old.

In neighboring Kazakhstan, power is on average older than in Russia. The average age of the legislative and executive branch there is 57 years. If the average age of members of the Kazakhstan parliament coincides with the Russian, then members of the government (it was updated in January 2022 as a result of civil protests that arose as a result of a sharp increase in fuel prices) over five years. One of the main slogans of the protests held in early January was the “grandfather, leave,” addressed to the long -term leader of the country, former President Nursultan Nazarbayev. “In Kazakhstan, this [age of power] was also a sign of ossification, which led to this slogan. We, too, sits a man not too young and risking his president’s status to transform into the status of the father of the nation and survive until they say to him: “Old Man, leave”. He is already called grandfather on social networks, ”says political scientist Andrei Kolesnikov.

Among the post -Soviet countries, the situation in Ukraine is most strong from Russia. After the youngest president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky came to power (at the time of his office he was 41 years old), the average age of the legislative and executive branch is 44 years. The deputies of the Verkhovna Rada are on average 11 years younger than members of the Russian parliament, and the average age of ministers is on average 10 years lower than the Russian indicator.

«Что касается восточноевропейских стран и стран Балтии, то там проходили очень радикальные реформы, там очень хотели уйти от всего советского. И управленческий класс быстро стали составлять люди молодого возраста, когда министрами даже становились люди до 30 лет, потому что шло тотальное обновление элиты, — объясняет политолог Андрей Колесников. — Есть политическая культура старая в принципе, и она становится политической культурой стариков, а есть политическая культура молодая, и это культура молодых. Страны, которые хотели бы динамично развиваться и быстрее избавляться от этого следа Советского Союза, быстрее омолаживаются».

Средний возраст представителей законодательной и исполнительной власти в странах западной Европы также ниже, чем в России. В Германии в среднем такие чиновники моложе российских на четыре год, во Франции — на год. По словам Андрея Колесникова, многое зависит от первого лица страны: например, президент Франции Эмманюэль Макрон, став первым лицом страны в 39 лет, омолодил и состав французской политической элиты.

По-другому обстоят дела в Великобритании: там средний возраст правящей элиты на год выше российского. Такая ситуация в Великобритании объясняется тем, что одна из ветвей парламента — Палата лордов, которая почти не имеет влияния на законодательную деятельность, включает людей, которые могут находиться на посту пожизненно ( статус лорда назначается монархом или переходит по наследству. — Прим. ред. ). Без ее учета члены парламента Великобритании в среднем моложе российских на четыре года, такая же разница в возрасте у министров двух стран.

Еще одна западная страна, где законодательная и исполнительная власть в среднем старше российской, — США, которой правит самый старый президент в истории государства, 79-летний Джо Байден. Там средний возраст высших чиновников составляет 60 лет. Члены парламента США в среднем на семь лет старше российских, министры — на четыре года. Как следует из анализа состава нынешнего парламента ( в США он называется Конгрессом. — Прим. ред. ), он стал «старейшим» из всех конгрессов как минимум за последние 20 лет. Это привело к недовольству американцев: более половины из них считают, что в стране необходимо установить максимальный возрастной ценз для чиновников, следует из опроса общественного мнения, проведенного в 2022 году.

Как Путин отменял возрастные ограничения для чиновников

В отличие от США, в России законом установлены ограничения по предельному возрасту нахождения чиновника у власти. В начале первого срока Владимира Путина эта граница составляла 65 лет. Заменивший Путина на посту президента в 2008 году Дмитрий Медведев выступал за омоложение чиновничьего аппарата: в 2010 году он снизил этот возраст до 60 лет.

Но в 2013 году Владимир Путин после возвращения в кресло президента снова разрешил высокопоставленным чиновникам работать до 70 лет. На своем нынешнем сроке президентства, в 2021 году, Путин отменил возрастные ограничения для назначаемых им госслужащих. Он подписал закон, который позволяет чиновникам, назначенным лично президентом, оставаться у власти и позже достижения 70 лет.

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Кроме этого, президент годами постепенно повышал предельный возраст нахождения чиновников на отдельных постах. Так, в 2012 году Путин отменил возрастной ценз для главы Верховного суда: уже 33 года этот пост занимает Вячеслав Лебедев, которому в 2022 году исполнится 79 лет. Ранее, при Медведеве, был отменен предельный возраст пребывания в должности председателя Конституционного суда: уже 19 лет на этом посту служит Валерий Зорькин, который тоже отметит 79-летие в этом году.

В 2015 году Владимир Путин увеличил предельный возраст службы прокуроров с 65 до 70 лет. Тогда же Юрий Чайка, на тот момент генеральный прокурор, как раз приближался к своему 65-летию. В 2019 году президент снял возрастные ограничения для ректоров МГУ и СПбГУ. В 2021 году Путин продлил предельный срок для военной службы генералов армии — раньше он составлял 65 лет, теперь контракт военнослужащих может быть продлен на срок, «установленный главой государства». В списке генералов армии, перешедших 65-летний порог, — главы силовых ведомств: 67-летний глава Минобороны Сергей Шойгу, 67-летний глава Росгвардии Виктор Золотов, 70-летний глава ФСБ Александр Бортников.

«Думаю, что это было сделано для ближайшего окружения, для верных людей, проверенных, — объясняет политолог Андрей Колесников. — Эти люди во всем благодарны власти, от них нельзя ожидать никакого подвоха, потому что их задача — досидеть до пенсии. Например, [Виктор] Садовничий, ректор МГУ, много услуг оказал Путину, и Путин ему оказывает в ответ те же самые услуги. [Валерий] Зорькин сидит в Конституционном суде много-много лет. Конституционный суд Зорькина оправдал внесение изменений в Конституцию 2020 года по очень слабым основаниям. Вот ровно для того его и держат. Он исполняет свои обязанности исключительно так, чтобы быть лояльным первому лицу и поддерживать автократическую вертикаль. Так что это поддержание на плаву „старой гвардии“ — здесь действуют соображения удобства и благодарности».

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Editor: Alexandra Mirror