Oil for $ 100 per barrel? Or maybe $ 150? What to expect from today's meeting of OPEC

Oil prices in anticipation of OPEC+ meetings are held at $ 90/barrels, and oil forecasts of $ 100 already seem quite realistic, and $ 150 for a little high. But at the end of last year, many expected correction in the oil market, or even trend changes. Not to mention last year's stories about the imminent death of the Oilman.

The increase in oil prices in early 2022 was a certain surprise, notes the creator of the BitKogan telegram channel, professor of the Higher Superior Evgeny Kogan. “In December, it was believed that the growth of OPEC production and outside the cartel, the sale of strategic reserves near the consumers, and co -leaf restrictions will lead to excess oil in the market in the first quarter up to 3 million barrels per day. And the surplus will remain until the end of the year with the appropriate impact on prices, ”he explains.

But everything went not according to plan. “The influence of Omicron on demand was small and short -term. Minus is lagging behind the plans, some of the OPEC members can not even provide production on old quotas. And in the whole world, due to many years of non-investment, production is growing not as fast as it could at such prices. Well, geopolitics, where without it. When the basic script on the market changes so quickly, such sharp movements happen that we observe, ”says Kogan.

Investbank Goldman Sachs believes that at the current meeting, OPEC and its allies can announce more than expected to increase oil production. “We see the growing potential for a faster increase at this meeting, given the pace of the recent rally and the probable pressure from the importing countries,” the bank analysts wrote in the report. “The group of manufacturers can also be more and more concerned about the hawk change of the Central Bank, which can lead to a slowdown in global growth and oil revenues at the end of this year,” they explain ..

Now the OPEC+member countries, according to the agreement, should increase the production by 400 thousand barrels per day (BS) in total. However, as Reuters calculated , the production of OPEC countries (taking into account the OPEC+ countries that are not included in the agreement) in January increased by 210 thousand BS. Until 28.01 million barrels per day (27.8 million in December). As a result, the Cartel Agreement in January was exceeded by 32% (in December - by 27%). And prices continued to rise. And they will grow further, confident in Goldman Sachs.

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