The government has begun meetings on Russia's readiness for tough sanctions over Ukraine

As The Bell learned, last week First Deputy Prime Minister Andriy Belousov held a series of meetings on the readiness of certain sectors of the economy for possible anti-Russian sanctions for the invasion of Ukraine.

The meetings were held as a result of stress tests ("exercises") of Russian companies and systemically important banks, three sources close to the government told The Bell. The real and financial sectors, as well as infrastructure, were reporting, Russian Post, Aeroflot and Russian Railways have already made presentations, one of them specified. The companies did not respond to requests from The Bell. Belousov's spokesman declined to comment.

Stress tests ("exercises") suggested disconnection from SWIFT, a ban on the supply of Western software equipment, servers, chips and other high-tech equipment. “Everyone reports cheerfully, but in private conversations they say it’s a disaster,” the source of The Bell shared. In particular, in the event of restrictions on the conversion of the ruble into dollars, euros and the British pound, Russian banks “definitely have a problem with refinancing their external debt,” another source said.

As wrote Kommersant , amid reports of possible US sanctions restrictions on the supply of new electronics to Russia and support for the existing Sberbank, he conducted technological exercises. They simulated the shutdown of the bank's IT infrastructure from the support of Microsoft, Nvidia, VMware, SAP and other companies, sources in the government and in the computer market told the publication. The threat of blocking Russia's access to global electronics supplies caused concern in the government, Kommersant's interlocutors specified.

Stress tests (“exercises”) were carried out by all systemically important banks, not only Sberbank,” the Bell interlocutor added.

“In terms of infrastructure, we are looking only at Chinese contractors,” a source at one of the major state-owned banks told The Bell. “Nobody specifically insists on Huawei, but this is a recommendation that should be taken into account in the current conditions,” he explained.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the US and partners would "cripple" the Russian economy in the event of an escalation in Ukraine. Among the threats of sanctions in the event of an open invasion of Russia into Ukraine were the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT, the blocking of correspondent accounts of the largest Russian banks in the United States, a ban on the import of American-made technologies to Russia necessary for the defense and consumer industries, etc.

A total shutdown from SWIFT threatens Russia with paralysis of international settlements, a currency shock, a shortage of imported goods and will affect almost the entire population of Russia. The Russian analogue of SWIFT - the Central Bank's Financial Message Transmission System - will ensure the continuity of payments within the country, but what will happen to international payments remains a question (if we do not consider the prospect of returning to outdated telex communication channels, although in 2014 the Central Bank tested this possibility as well ) .

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In mid-January, the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee published the text of a new sanctions bill against Russia, supported by the White House. It follows from the text that the senators propose to introduce personal sanctions against Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials not only in the event of an open invasion of Ukraine, but also in the event of a “significant escalation” compared to December 2021, if the US President decides what is behind it Russia, and the goal of the escalation is the violation of the sovereignty of Ukraine or the overthrow of its government. We talked about what other restrictions are contained in the bill here .