The day the war didn't happen

How Kyiv lives against the backdrop of the threat of invasion. Video bridge between Ukraine and Russia

In the Western media, February 16 was called the exact day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the Kremlin, this is called manic information madness. Biden said he believes an invasion is still likely. In Ukraine, in anticipation of X hour, a number of Rada deputies, oligarchs and big businessmen left the country. In social networks, they talked about military training and the massive buying of weapons by the population. Some international airlines have canceled flights to Ukraine. What is it - an information war or a real threat of a military conflict between two neighboring countries? How does Kyiv live now, and do you feel preparations for war there? We will discuss this today with our correspondent in Kyiv, Olga Musafirova, and Kirill Martynov, editor of the Novaya Politics Department.

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Nadezhda Yurova: The first question is obvious, tell us what is happening in Kiev on the streets, in shops, shopping centers, in the city center. What is the life of the city?

Olga Musafirova: If we are talking about today, then February 16, according to the decree of President Zelensky, will now be called the “Day of Unity”. The country demonstrates its unity and readiness for any challenges. In fact, this is a very good thing, you know, the sublimation of fear inside every person, it does not reflect positively either on the person himself or on the country as a whole. We have overcome our fears. I don’t know who believes that in Kiev, Kharkov, Odessa, Dnieper, Chernigov, they bought salt, matches, cereals - this is complete nonsense. I answer questions of this kind with a phrase that wipes the smiles off the faces of those who try to ask about cereals and matches. I say: "No, we stocked up on weapons." To some extent, this is true to a large extent. Never before has the Ukrainian army been so well and modernly armed. Deliveries from the United States at the beginning of non-lethal, and then lethal weapons and from other countries, including the Baltic countries. You know, it’s easier to be “afraid” when the army is well-armed and ready, unlike in 2014, when the war began.

I am always very annoyed by the question: “Are you expecting a war?”. No, guys, we have been living in it for eight years. And, let's say, in the hot phase from 14 to 16, I went many times to the Donbass, where they really shot and killed. And God forbid anyone see this. That is, Ukrainians are well aware of what war is, unfortunately. To suggest that this war could cover the entire territory of Ukraine as a result of a large-scale invasion of Russia, the mind of a healthy person refuses. But who said that we are dealing with a healthy person ... We all know the name of this person. Therefore, it is better to be prepared.

In Kyiv, I swear to you, absolutely imperceptibly any panic preparation for various things that can be said. I drove through several shopping centers the other day, they are working at full capacity, there are no empty seats in restaurants, people are having lunch, people are having dinner. Children on the streets. Yes, a number of embassies and diplomatic missions left Kyiv. By all the standards of the civilized world, this is a very serious signal that theoretically, and even not theoretically, something very serious can happen here. On the other hand, some of the embassies, say, the same Baltic countries, Poland did not withdraw their diplomats, these embassies remained and continue to work. The rest have now mastered new territories in Lviv. How long this will last, I cannot say. Obviously, this is not within my competence. Let us hope that this peak situation of tension may subside. But again, I say “maybe” very carefully, since it is not us, not Ukraine, who initiated this tension.

Nadezhda Yurova: Well, if you say that, in principle, life goes on as usual and everything is in order, this information is about the fact that people are buying up cartridges, some military exercises are taking place, they are almost taught to shoot there, it’s true ? It was?

Olga Musafirova: It was, and is, and, obviously, will be. I will explain what this means. After information that Russian and Belarusian exercises “Allied Resolve-22” were going along the borders of Ukraine, military units were put forward there. In cities and, in general, in almost all settlements, the so-called territorial defense has been created. For Ukraine, this is not news, I emphasize. Territorial defense was created back in the days of the Maidan in order, firstly, to maintain order, as you remember, the Maidan took place in 2013-2014, but, to the sadness of the Russian propaganda media, it was not accompanied by any robberies or banditry, nothing like that. People who voluntarily organized themselves into self-defense units, territorial defense, kept order. Now the same trend, but in general, adjusted for the current situation. With people liable for military service and those who expressed a desire, there are not only men, there are also women, military instructors work with them. In Ukraine, more than one and a half million people who have passed the front line. These are people who can really teach both the practice of survival and the lessons of combat. It's scary to talk about it.

When I speak, I have the feeling that I am talking about something that cannot be. But then again, if I had been told at the end of 1913 that in 1914 in the city of Donetsk, where I once worked in a newspaper, and in Lugansk, where I was on business trips a million times, that what happened there will happen, and these cities, parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions will be cut off from Ukraine, they will be occupied, and they will shoot there - I would not believe it. Because, you know, you have to somehow expand your ideas about reality in this sense. And yet, you know, let me make this household comparison. When the hostess prepares dinner, it is better for her to buy everything at once - meat, and vegetables, and spices, and herbs, and not run to the store to buy more each time. So, it’s better to immediately prepare for the worst, let it never happen, but let people know how to act. In the same way, not in all places, but in most places, civil defense exercises are being held: the most elementary - where are the bomb shelters, how to provide first aid. I also allow myself a retrospective: in 2006, when there was another aggravation of the Arab-Israeli conflict, I was in Israel with a group of journalists, and we lived in Tel Aviv, and we were taken to Haifa and Nahariya to show the war. And for me, and for colleagues, it was absolutely incredible - well, how? Beautiful sea, beautiful beach in Tel Aviv, luxurious hotel. We get on the Foreign Office bus, drive along the magnificent autobahn, and arrive at Nahariya, where we see fresh ruins and the protruding tail of a rocket that has broken through the iron dome and hit. And people - someone died, someone was taken to an underground hospital. You know, you couldn't believe it. And we, at least in the first days, had some kind of feeling ... We asked exactly the same questions as they ask us now: “Listen, are you afraid to live here in Tel Aviv?”. Well, Lord, how much we drove there - 100-200 kilometers - and the war. “No, it’s not scary,” they answered us, “we live like this all our lives, we are used to it. If we cry and fear, we will be weaker. And we want to win, we want to be strong.”

Nadezhda Yurova: And now you feel the same way and can you say the same words?

Olga Musafirova: The fact that Ukraine is becoming the new Israel in this sense. And obviously, this is one of those positive factors against the backdrop of terrible and negative things that war or the threat of an imminent war brings with it.

Nadezhda Yurova: And if we are not talking about Kiev, although in Kiev it is clear that people are scared, but still life goes on ...

Olga Musafirova: Nadya, people are not afraid, people have learned to trust reliable sources of information. At least, the task of journalists, I think, is still 80 percent completed. Because by the decision of the National Security and Defense Council, well, these are well-known things, I wrote about it in Novaya, several television channels were closed. Not so, not closed, but suspended their activities, channels affiliated, let's say, with members of the government of Yanukovych, who fled to Russia after the Maidan. And you know, immediately the informational television agenda changed. That is, it is important to give people as much information as possible, as much as possible, blocking fakes and blocking the escalation of the situation.

Nadezhda Yurova: And does it help?

Olga Musafirova: It helps a lot. People like air at a time like this need correct proven information. Because if they draw their information from some murky sources, there is fear, there is uncertainty, there is a desire to grab the children in an armful and run. And I will be wrong if I say that not a single person has left Kyiv, except for diplomats. Yesterday, just when I was filming a video, I walked around the city. At such a time, in the middle of the day, despite the fact that it is a working day, the sun, such first glimpses of spring, there are more people on the streets. Especially in the center happens more. That is, some part of the people, obviously, left on their own, took their children, relatives, I don’t know where. Perhaps towards Lviv, Ternopil, perhaps towards Poland, which said that in the event of Russian aggression, we open the borders and accept Ukrainian refugees. But, fortunately, now fear and panic moods have not prevailed over common sense. Well, that's where I started. Still, as a result, most of us have overcome inner fear. This is a very, you know, pleasant and dignified human feeling, but where should we run from our homes? And why should we, like crazy, buy candles, kerosene, or run in the park to dig dugouts? We are on our own land, we will protect it.

Nadezhda Yurova: But what is happening at the borders? The questions are the same, about people, about fear, or is there also some kind of total readiness and calmness in principle.

Olga Musafirova: I would divide the concept of borders into two parts. The first border is the one we have long been accustomed to talking about, for eight years already, this is the border that runs through the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, this is the current line of demarcation. It is restless there, but it has not been calm there since 1914, there is no bloodshed, there are no fights, but there are daily skirmishes. Here is the task to ensure that the ceasefire regime is in effect and the weapons are withdrawn. And it is very important for the OSCE mission to carry out its tasks, and not sit in the bushes, covering their heads with their hands. And about the second section of the border. In Ukraine, it is more than a thousand kilometers - the border with Russia and Belarus. So, about two weeks ago I was on a business trip almost close to the Belarusian Gomel, on the territory of the Chernihiv region, but near the border with Belarus. And I did not set myself the task of going to the cordon itself and asking questions to the border guards.

I talked with residents of border villages. You know, there's an ambivalent feeling. People were even unnecessarily calm, and I can understand why this is happening. This is a depressed region, they are unsure that their life can change for the better. They are used to living poorly. They watch TV only Russian and Belarusian. Ukrainian channels do not make their way there. They know about this propaganda sublimation, but, you know, they accept their fate. This is very sad. I wrote about it, I talked about it on Ukrainian channels, when I was called to air, there are such sentiments. They do not panic, they understand that in general all their efforts will be swept away anyway. If the army goes, they will not be able to oppose anything. These people are sincerely sorry, because the Ukrainian state has not paid attention to them until now. I hope that now at least such, I would say, bearish corners will also be given some attention.

Nadezhda Yurova: The State Duma suggested that Putin recognize the "DPR" and "LPR", thereby effectively destroying the Minsk agreements. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said it would be a political disaster. Putin says he will act according to the plan. And how this plan will develop depends not only on Russia. What is going on? How will this situation unfold? Will there be real conflict? We tried to figure it out together with Kirill Martynov, editor of the Novaya Politics Department.

Kirill Martynov: It seems to me that Europe has returned to the strangest and most terrible, perhaps, its own times, when the question of whether there will be a war on our continent or not actually depends on the mood of one person. Against this background, all the efforts of Western diplomacy look like such a tragicomedy. Because Western diplomacy has already put a lot of resources into convincing the Russian authorities and personally Vladimir Putin that there is no need to fight, that it is unprofitable, that it is dangerous, that people will die, that the Russian economy will collapse. And now we see a whole caravan of diplomats heading to Moscow. The most important visit was that of the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. We see this famous long table at which Putin receives those people who refused to take a PCR test before entering the Kremlin, relatively speaking. And it seems to me that, of course, the Western side is slightly misjudging the situation in the sense that they believe that there are some rational ways - for example, to conduct their own information campaign, like the Americans, who were reproached for being overly dramatized and give some dates for Russia's attack on Ukraine. Although the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky says that these informational stuffing or attacks do not help Ukrainians at all. Or, on the contrary, they are trying to build some kind of negotiation process, drag out time, transfer everything from firing cannons to creaking feathers, to those long tables at which diplomats sit. It seems to me that the drama lies in the fact that all these Western methods of influencing the Russian authorities are very limited; because, I repeat, in the end, everything depends not on some decision of the Russian government, not on the work of the Russian parliament, not on Russian diplomats, but everything depends on what mood Vladimir Putin will have, who will come to him last from his advisers, what decision will be made at some critical moment.

But at the same time, we now see that all the same, these exhortations, this diplomatic dance around Moscow still leads to some positive consequences in the sense that as of today, when we are writing this down, there has been no further escalation, well and thank god, thanks for that. However, there is also no feeling that life has become better and safer after all this, because it is always, apparently, now some kind of delayed threat. It doesn't matter whether Ukraine joins NATO or not, anyway, this threat of a further military conflict, it is very clearly indicated by the Russian side.

In this sense, it seems to me that the fact that the Russian deputies adopted this strange document called “Appeal to the President with a proposal to recognize the independence of the territories of the DPR and LPR” is rather not some kind of political action, and therefore no more conflict in the Russian elites. Because, after all, Putin said that he really understands the Russian deputies, but we must try to act within the framework of the Minsk agreements, which, in general, of course, do not imply any recognition of the independence of these territories. And, moreover, if the Russian side does this, then the Minsk agreements, in which so many resources were invested from all sides, will finally collapse, will finally cease to operate simply in fact.

So, it seems to me that the Russian deputies are now acting here as such a specific special unit, such a political or diplomatic special forces. They are simply, in fact, combatants in the information war that is going on. And just as Russian troops move around the border of Ukraine, and just as Russian fleets enter the Black Sea, Russian deputies show that we are ready to recognize the “DNR” and “LNR” at any moment. And there was only one stroke of the president's pen. And the Russian parliament and allegedly Russian society have already fully signed up for this and have already lined up and are also waiting. This is the creation of such a “fog of war”, from which one person eventually comes out and announces something. And in this stupid situation, we can only hope that his announcement will be that we all disperse, there will be peace.

Editor - Arnold Khachaturov, sound engineer - Denis Nikulin, producer - Masha Ulazovskaya, editing - Alexander Lavrenov, cameraman - Vlad Dokshin, transcription - Elizaveta Leonidova