Order of Lukashenko

The placement of Russian missiles will make Belarus a military-political enemy of the West

On Saturday, February 19, President Vladimir Putin took Alexander Lukashenko with him to a situational center in the Kremlin. There, the junior ally watched as the senior ally commanded the beginning of the teachings of nuclear forces. In the evening, Vladimir Vladimirovich promised to play hockey with him. It is too early to put pressure on the buttons during the exercises of the Russian forces of strategic deterrence.

The plot showed the likely new role of Minsk in military-political layouts in Europe.

The events that occurred the day before, coupled with this demonstration, will make military analysts and journalists think in the West. At a joint press conference, after negotiations in the Kremlin Lukashenko, he was more belligerent than Putin. He said that most of the time they devoted to the search for NATO’s military response, and finished in Putinsky: “If someone is silent, then the answer will be absolutely asymmetric.”

The joint road to asymmetry was outlined on February seventeenth - Alexander Lukashenko visited the landfill in Osipovichi (about 85 km from Minsk), and he really liked everything there. The official press called it loudly - "a joint grouping of the missile forces of Belarus and Russia." Of course, this is a temporary connection during maneuvers. The Belarusian missilers in it are represented by the Polonnes of local production, and the Russian Iskanders are represented.

“Polonaise” is quite accurate export Chinese missiles M200 and M20 on the Belarusian chassis with a fairly high degree of localization. The flight range is up to 280 km, the weight of the combat part from 480 kg, it is possible to be guided by a drone (tested by test launches), inertial management and using Beidou/Glonass/GPS. In fact, this is already an operational-tactical weapon. “Polonaise” is in service with the army of Azerbaijan. According to unconfirmed reports, he participated in the shelling of the Armenian troops in Karabakh.

On the same day, BelTA said that

Belarus will turn to an ally with a request to create on its territory the center for training Belarusian military work with Iskander. For the first time, Lukashenko said that it would be possible to purchase these OTR.

Or "Russians will supply something at their own expense, because the army is common." It is funny that at one time Lukashenko had to create with the Chinese a cheap analogue of the Iskander in the form of Polonaise precisely because of Putin’s refusal to “supply something at his own expense”.

The likely creation of the CSTO missile base in Belarus will become part of the same asymmetric military answer, which is mentioned in the response of the Russian Foreign Ministry to American proposals for the construction of a security system in Europe. The first violin in this “joint venture”, of course, will play Russia - the owner of technology. The fact is that the Iskander for the CSTO is very accurate missiles with a range of 500 km. But the export option has a range of only 280 km. This is due to our obligations under an agreement on non -proliferation of missile technologies. And Russia is obliged to control the fate of its missiles in Belarus.

A source in the apparatus of the authorized representative of Belarus in the CSTO confirmed our newspaper the expectation of new decisions on the "number and powers of the joint Russian-Belarusian group in Belarus." However, his commentary was rather pessimistic: “We are waiting for official news. Too rainbow prospects for military cooperation should not be expected. This is not the process that will lead to an immediate result after the leaders' agreement. Everything will be long and painful. The Belarusian side will always leave “bridges to retreat”, that is, a revision of the initial agreements, their change. ”

One of our sources, with the experience of strategic military planning, described the causes and benefits of the probable creation of a missile base in Belarus in the framework of the General CSTO group, or the armament of the Iskanders of the Belarusian army in this way:

“I think that the last time there has been a search for a decision in order to prevent Kyiv’s blow to the Donbass. Our military maneuvers are from this series. The Russian Federation turned out to be in the situation "you can’t answer." The comma will be placed depending on the situation.

Donetsk corps to stop the Armed Forces on their own is not able to. Our intervention ( in the probable battle of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the 1st and 2nd buildings of the “DPR-LNR” .- V. Sh. ) Already, apparently, blocked. But there is a search for means to prevent such a scenario. All dances with Belarusians from the same series.

Such development will somehow continue to continue pressure on Kyiv using the factor of the famous "stupidity" Lukashenko-what if it burye? These complexes reach 30–500 km. So consider: from Yelsk to Kyiv 180 km. But this is not a solution, but a pressure. There is no solution to the problem yet.

The search for non -standard actions continues. ”

In any case, according to Rustem Klupov, our permanent author, in the past of the head of the intelligence of the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation, if such a configuration arises, the balance of power in Eastern Europe and around Ukraine will change. Until now, the CSTO states are used by the air defense system compiled from parts of the unified USSR Air Defense System. And this is extremely favorable cooperation: the missile batteries are national, and the decision on the use is made by the leadership of the union countries, but all intelligence for preparation for use come from Russian colleagues. But this is the most difficult, expensive and almost inaccessible to any former Republic of the USSR (including Ukraine) part of the country's air defense.

But the creation of a new military instrument in Belarus is no longer just a defensive character -

Iskander missiles are universal and can be used to shell the most important goals in Eastern Europe.

They shoot Ukraine almost through and through, up to Odessa and the Dnieper. However, it is unclear how the leadership of the Russian Federation will act from a legal point of view. If in a hypothetical conflict it nevertheless decides to blow (even a limited) on the military infrastructure of Ukraine, then how can it do this from Lukashenko's possessions? The attack on the neighbors in the project of the new Constitution of Belarus is prohibited. But shooting across the border automatically means Lukashenko’s war with Ukraine.

“The Kaliningrad Naval Base and the troops located in the region are, from a purely military point of view, in a very difficult situation,” said Rustem Kulaov. - They are surrounded by unfriendly armies. And if there was a war with the use of conventional weapons, these units will not last for a long time.

The Iskander behind the Belarusian border, from the other end of the Suvalka corridor, will significantly change the situation. And there will be no end to the indignation of NATO countries and new sanctions. The exercises on the transfer of units of the twentieth army to Belarus are carried out regularly and for a long time. Therefore, the very idea of ​​creating a permanent Russian group in Belarus is discussed from the same time: why move personnel and equipment, if you can register them constantly?

But any defense involves counterattacks. Therefore, in addition to protecting the boundaries of Belarus, such a group will still have a second task - to break through the Suvalka corridor in Kaliningrad. And a change in the balance of forces always destabilizes the situation and brings the military-political crisis closer. After all, the main tasks will not be performed by soldiers, but by electronic warfare systems, aviation and the same missile forces. It is unlikely that a second Chechnya should be expected today as a model of military operations.

Operational and strategic radio intelligence, which supplies information, including for the joint air defense system of Russia and Belarus, is guaranteed to open all the movements of all types of aviation in Europe and throughout the Mediterranean. It is included in the warning system for the military-political leadership on the preparation of the enemy for aggression. In its position and potential of enemies, Belarus should not have. But the Belarusian leader still managed to make them everywhere. Therefore, not only the General Staff of Russia, but also Lukashenko is interested in obtaining a pressure tool on neighbors. But of course, no one will give him a “button”. ”

Paradoxically, the will of most of the Belarusians, which reached mass protests in 2020 in Belarus, caused the rapid degradation of the Lukashenko regime. After the West refusal to recognize him as a legitimate president, he lost the possibility of the usual political maneuver. Now this norovable horse is firmly placed in the stall of the foreign policy of Russia and will no longer run away from Putin to Europe. A direct consequence of such a political transformation is the forced adherence to Belarus in the fairway in conflict with the West of Russia. Now it is reasonable to expect strengthening the military cooperation of the two countries and the emergence of Russian troops and missiles near the borders of Poland and Lithuania.