The authors of Novaya Gazeta answer: Kirill Martynov, Elena Romanova, Valery Shiryaev

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We were preparing this episode of the What's New podcast yesterday, discussing the evacuation of residents of the "DNR" and "LNR". But then it became known about Putin's recognition of the independence of the "LPR", which implies "joint defense" and counteraction to "acts of aggression".

In the first part of the issue, we are talking with the political editor of Novaya Gazeta Kirill Martynov - what to expect next, will there be a war?

In the second part, we figure out what happens to people who had to evacuate, do they have enough space for accommodation, how do the regions of Russia that receive them react? answers questions Our correspondent in Rostov Elena Romanova .

About the real situation on the border and the shooting in the "DNR" and "LNR" - columnist "Novaya" Valery Shiryaev .

What does Putin's speech mean and will there be a war?

Answered by Kirill Martynov

Nadezhda Yurova: The first question that interests me is not even the most important, but what was the biggest game we heard yesterday in this historical lecture by Vladimir Vladimirovich?

Kirill Martynov: You know, it's hard for me to single out any single game. I think this whole situation is extremely wild. I think this speech is perhaps the biggest damage done to our national interests. If we understand Russian national interests in the sense of the freedom and prosperity of our citizens, the recognition of Russia as a full participant in international diplomatic processes, then a very serious blow has been dealt to all these things. And the main line of attack lies in the fact that in this confusing and filled with some random details speech of the Russian president, by and large, Moscow's political sovereignty over the entire territory of Ukraine was justified. There were very few references to the current situation in Donbas in the speech. Donbass sounded literally several times during this long speech. And the main line of reasoning of the Russian president was that Ukraine is our culture, our history and, ultimately, our land, even if these words were not heard. In a strange way, someone even exhaled when, at the end, Putin said that after all, we are talking about the recognition of independence today. But it seems to me that this speech in itself is not even dedicated to this event, which does not directly follow from it, that is, as if the conclusion from the speech does not particularly follow from it. It follows from it that the diplomatic contacts of the Russian Federation are broken at a much more serious level than it was after 2014. Quite serious economic sanctions against our country follow from it. Further isolation of Russia follows from it. And it implies the possibility of a full-scale war as something that is in the best interests of the Russian ruling elite, as Vladimir Putin understands them. And the current situation now, when recognition of these territories is instantly made, and Russian troops occupy them, this situation is even more egregious than the events associated with the annexation of Crimea. In Crimea, Russian troops were shy, it was alleged that Russia was simply protecting the interests of its military bases on the territory of the peninsula. After that, a referendum was held, after which, when all these things were brought together, it turned out that Russia was accepting Crimea into this so-called native harbor. Here we simply see convoys of equipment that enter through the Russian border into the territory of a sovereign state. This technique is likely to be on the line of demarcation. Opposite it will directly stand the Ukrainian army, which, in accordance with international laws, considers these territories under its sovereignty. And further, taking into account the entry into this situation, we are waiting for any set of provocations by and large. An accidental provocation can be the basis for starting hostilities directly against the Ukrainian army.

Nadezhda Yurova: But we are talking not only about the Ukrainian army, as I understand it, NATO will also take its side.

Kirill Martynov: NATO will not directly defend Ukraine. NATO, weighing the risks and sympathizing with Ukraine, nevertheless cares first of all about its own citizens. And, since Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the fifth paragraph of the charter of this organization on collective self-defense does not apply to it - there will be no NATO troops in Ukraine. I think that they will continue to supply weapons in the same way that they have already done. I insist that these weapons are defensive, a typical example is just the famous “javelins”, an anti-tank complex that cannot be used in any way except for a defensive war against the advancing enemy armored vehicles. But now, by and large, Ukraine is left to itself, and no one, except Ukrainians, is responsible for this situation. All the risks are largely on the Kiev government, and it seems that the Kremlin's bet is to create the most serious possible split in the situation in Kyiv. To try to destabilize the situation there, to ensure that some forces appear that say that refusing to immediately try to protect their sovereign interests in Donbas is a betrayal. Well, in general, hang, in particular, President Zelensky on the eve of the elections, which will also be held in Ukraine in 1924, just like, formally, with Vladimir Putin.

Nadezhda Yurova: Well, formally, Vladimir Putin. The question is, Crimea - it’s understandable, it seemed to work for the rating, it seemed like they returned their native land, propaganda said so. Why does Putin need it now? This is also understandable, the heroes-liberators, all that. Everyone understands that if there is a further war, it will not obviously add to his rating.

Kirill Martynov: I imagine that Vladimir Putin assesses this situation differently, he believes that history will judge him, but now you need to endure it somehow. And, perhaps, taking into account the fact that these ballistic missile launches together with Mr. Lukashenko were demonstratively demonstrated to us, that some kind of symbolic restoration of the Soviet Union is taking place in Putin’s head, where the best Slavic republics will be selected. We will not take Uzbekistan there, we will not drag them there. But the three states, united, as he believes, by a common history, they should very likely find themselves within the framework of this new divided Europe that they are building, as part of one state. It is not very clear to what extent yet. But even now all the prerequisites for just such a scenario have already been created. Because we can say that there is some kind of government of collaborators, traitors to this great Soviet-Slavic idea, which is located in Kiev, these are temporary difficulties, but in general, by and large, we have everything ready to declare that we have the great power that we lost as a result of the geopolitical catastrophe of 1991 has been restored.

Nadezhda Yurova: What awaits us? A question for an economist, but damn it, the dollar is 80, the euro is above 91. I just want to talk not so much about money or the economy, but about how this will affect life. On the air of Dozhd yesterday, you said very nicely about a simple 20-year-old man who simply has never encountered such a crisis and does not understand what to do, what will happen. Waiting for empty shelves, waiting for...

Kirill Martynov: No, I don't think there will be directly empty shelves. There will simply be a decrease in the purchasing power of people, I think that is quite noticeable. And we already have introductory economic in this sense, sad, given the high inflation, the fact that everyone notices that everything is becoming more expensive. Everything will continue to rise in price, the ruble will depreciate, the assortment will be reduced, and people will give up some kind of habitual way of life, to which they will generally be told “well, what do you want, in order to live in a great power you have to endure some hardships.” We have basically seen it all. What is some advantage of those who found the 14th year in a conscious state, that, by and large, this is just a repetition of the past. Well, yes, there was some kind of enthusiasm among the Russian society, which is unlikely to happen again now, but at the same time there was a serious economic failure. And as a matter of fact, the beginning of our newest era, when every next year is worse economically in Russia than the previous one.

Nadezhda Yurova: Will the impact of this situation be worse this time?

Kirill Martynov: I think there will be a comparable effect. Now Western countries are facing some dilemma. On the one hand, they must state some kind of their position on the inadmissibility of these events, on the other hand, they understand that the situation can still develop according to a more difficult scenario, which, in the limit, simply involves the occupation of the entire territory of Ukraine, at least more parts of it. They do not have a scenario of military intervention in this situation, they have economic sanctions against key sectors of the Russian economy - banks, energy, metallurgy. And technological sanctions - a ban on the export of certain technologies to Russia. And now they need to appropriately distribute their sanctions opportunities in such a way as to keep Russia from an even more difficult scenario, although to a large extent it has already been implemented. That is, they need to respond with fairly serious sanctions, but at the same time stock up on some sanctions in case of a full-scale war.

Nadezhda Yurova: What do you know about people's reaction? From social networks, for example. From the side of Russia, and from the side, maybe even Ukraine or the DPR, LPR.

Kirill Martynov: I think that our position here is not objective, because we are in a bubble and, on the other hand, under quite close attention of people who do not like our political views. I see a very growing hatred already now, hatred on the part of those who are ready to swear loyalty to the choice of the Russian leadership and personally to Vladimir Putin, the readiness, in principle, to draw up lists of enemies of the people, which will include all those who do not agree with this choice, on the one hand . And on the other hand, I see a very deep confusion and a feeling that we were deceived a little, maybe even betrayed once again in some sense of the word, among those people who may be far from politics, but just want to live normally in their country, but their normal life in the name of something more... Although, what could be more than a normal life? They are now deprived of the opportunity to simply live in a peaceful developing country with a normal economy.

Nadezhda Yurova: And it will only get worse? 24th year and?…

Kirill Martynov: Absolutely. You know, our planning horizon, it seems to me, is not at all until the 24th year. I just said on one air, if from household details, for several months now I have not been able to buy a subscription to a fitness club, because they naturally offer me an annual one, because the economy of a fitness club is based on this. And I understand that such a special subscription for living in Russia would be suitable for me, for example, when you pay yourself for fitness trips until next Thursday. But they do not have such an option, and indeed, the bill now goes more for days and weeks than for years. It is very difficult for me to understand even how this year will end. And ironic skeptics say that we will still be nostalgic for this February, as a time of relative calm, prosperity, and, for example, when we could record Novaya Gazeta podcasts.

Nadezhda Yurova: I can't help but ask about the March 5th anti-war march. Minyailo and Enteo filed a notification with the Moscow City Hall, of course they will be refused, but will it be something reminiscent of last year's January?

Kirill Martynov: I think that the potential for mobilizing Russian society is very low. I think there will be many local anti-war initiatives. It is good if there are many of them, but now they will not quickly develop into some kind of nationwide movement, noticeable somehow from afar and gathering a lot of people. Well, of course people are afraid, people have families, mortgages, they are afraid of losing their jobs. And no one wants to sign up for these same enemies of the people. Moreover, it is not very clear now in the name of what to do this, what good we can change. It is clear that the Russian government has long been accustomed to simply completely ignore the mood of that part of society that is critical of it. I have already seen some inscriptions “No to war” at three stations in the passage. Lev Ponomarev* was detained. I think that there will be some separate targeted anti-war actions, artists, artists and so on will speak out on this matter. We will talk about it. While the voice of reason is very quiet, it is the voice of reason that speaks to history in a whisper.

Evacuation from the "LDNR" - from the scene

Nadezhda Yurova: Now let's return to the topic of the evacuation of residents of the DNR and LNR to Russia. On the afternoon of February 18, the heads of the self-proclaimed republics of the DPR and LPR suddenly announced an evacuation. Thousands of people began to arrive in the nearest Russian region - Rostov. The Kremlin and the authorities of the region at first declared that they knew nothing about what was happening at all, and then they abruptly began to prepare for the arrival of people from the “LPR”. All this is happening due to the fact that the region is again shooting. Over the past 24 hours, hundreds of ceasefire violations have been recorded, which has become a rarity for Donbass. The authorities of the republics say that they have concerns about the upcoming armed operation of the Ukrainian army. Kiev refutes these data and emphasizes that "actually, we want a diplomatic solution to this issue, we do not want to allow human casualties." State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said that Russia does not want war either, but “if there is a threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation and compatriots living in the DPR and LPR, our country will stand up for them. It was a quote." In his opinion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is provoking the start of a big war. About what is happening now, how people are experiencing the evacuation, are there enough places for accommodation, and so on, we will talk with our staff correspondent of Novaya from Rostov, who is right now watching what is happening from the inside. Lena, hello.

Elena Romanova: Hello.

Nadezhda Yurova: Tell us where you are now. and what in general since the 18th you managed to see and understand with your own eyes. What is going on?

Elena Romanova: I am in Rostov, on the evening of the 18th I was already on my way to the border, when I received messages about calls for evacuation by Pushilin and Pasechnik. I advanced to the border, and in fact, I spent more than a day on the Russian-Ukrainian border in the area of ​​​​the Matveev Kurgan border crossing. On Saturday morning I was already in the village of Krasny Desant, where the first refugees were brought.

Nadezhda Yurova: How was it, were they brought by bus?

Elena Romanova: Let's start with the fact that the first refugees began to cross the border in Matveyev Kurgan already closer to midnight, there were not many of them. They were brought by buses, they came with their own transport. I talked with a woman who was brought by her husband, he dropped her off with two children, and he returned to Donetsk, because men from 18 to 55 years old are not allowed to leave both republics.

VOICES OF THE EVACUATES
And husband?

The husband stayed there.

Not released?

Well, firstly, they don’t let men out, and secondly, they remained, and who will protect them?

Is it just that men are not allowed out in principle?

Ours remained, maybe someone is released.

Nadezhda Yurova: This woman's husband stayed in the city.

VOICES OF THE EVACUATES
We just drove off, the shelling began, and they call me, I hear, there ... how can you be here when you know what is there. It's very hard. If at least everyone stayed together - this is one thing, but so - I took the children, left, and my husband stayed there.

Elena Romanova: People crossed the border crossing on foot, then stayed and waited. Someone was waiting for relatives in the Rostov region, a lot of people who have relatives in these two unrecognized republics. There was a big crowd of cars, people came, took their relatives, waited for them. Those for whom there was no one to come were waiting for the bus. Unfortunately, there were slips. For the first few hours, I think even half a day, the Rostov region, as it turned out, was not quite ready to receive such a large number of refugees, so people stood in the cold, some for an hour, some for more than two and a half hours, waiting for buses. Then the buses arrived, and they began to deliver them to temporary accommodation points.

Nadezhda Yurova: What are temporary accommodation facilities, what do they look like?

Elena Romanova: In the Rostov region, given that I remember the evacuation of 2014, these are usually sanatoriums, children's pioneer camps throughout the Rostov region. Some of them were re-equipped in 1914, heating was added there. Because the refugees who came to the Rostov region, starting from June 2014, and through the Rostov region then, let me remind you, according to approximate data, about 300 thousand people passed. They remained in these temporary accommodation until the year 16, in any case, in the winter of 16, I still traveled and filmed them. Since then, many have not been able to find any shelter for themselves, they lived there, the authorities also allocated some money, but, of course, volunteers helped them, including the owners of these same camps, who were forced to keep them at their own expense. That is, some of the camps there were already equipped with heating. So people began to be placed in these camps. For example, in the Kamensky district, as far as I know, about 100 people were accommodated in local hotels. Now they are also brought in, placed in hotels, but at the same time, so-called tent camps are equipped at two border crossings. These are truly tent camps, they were deployed by the Ministry of Emergency Situations. This is very important, because people, firstly, stand in line at the border for several hours, then they cross on foot, then they need to wait for their bus, which will pick them up and take them somewhere. In these tent camps, people warm themselves, receive some necessary medical care. That is, everything is better than standing in the cold and waiting for someone to come for you.

Nadezhda Yurova: How long do you usually have to wait?

Elena Romanova: I'm telling you, it was a mess for the first half a day. Now, some of my colleagues are already working at the border, they say that the process is already more or less established, that is, people come, their buses are already waiting and being picked up.

Nadezhda Yurova: Volunteers also helped people leave the city. But for those who do not have a final destination, buses were organized.

VOICES OF THE EVACUATES
Look, I'm just a volunteer. I arrived, I can pick up people and bring them to Taganrog. Or someone who is going to relatives, who understands where he is going and is not going to the TAP. If someone left without a final destination, then you better stay here so that you can be taken normally. Will have to wait.

That is, they drove around the city with microphones, with megaphones, police cars and announced that the evacuation of women and children. Buses stood right in the city on the square and centrally…

The city was so efficient and organized. Export of children, women, old people. Thank you, we have good good people who took us all the way to Uspenka. We decided to quickly, quickly pack up what we could and leave. We are of course grateful. Our children have been living in Russia for 20 years. We are grateful to them for inviting us.

Elena Romanova: In principle, the process is well established. In the western direction, a lot of columns of buses go to the border, return, run back and forth. That is, the process has begun.

Nadezhda Yurova: Do you know approximately how many people have already been evacuated?

Elena Romanova: But according to the latest data, there were 53,000 yesterday, according to the Ministry of Emergency Situations. In my opinion, in the morning they said that another 20 thousand, but I did not understand whether this was taking into account the previous day or not. That is, the data is different. The Ministry of Emergency Situations gives theirs, the border guards give theirs, that is, we are now operating on data that about 60 thousand people crossed the Russian-Ukrainian border on the territory of the Rostov region, but these data are constantly changing.

Nadezhda Yurova: Let's talk a little about people. You were at the border, you saw how it all happens. How do people react to this evacuation?

Elena Romanova: Again, I have to compare everything with 2014, because then it was really scary. Then people walked with huge trunks, they were in despair, they cried, there were men, women, old people, children, that is, in principle, it was the entire population. They talked about these terrible bombings, about the shooting, they talked about the destroyed buildings. This time I was able to talk to many people. People behaved quite calmly, I did not see any tantrums. People moved on and the only thing that annoyed them, of course, was their unsettledness. Because their leaders told them “pack your things, leave for the Rostov region, they are waiting for you there”. And when they arrived at night, it turned out that no one was waiting for them. They stood with these children, with these suitcases, the children were freezing. True, it was. And this caused their irritation. And when I arrived in the Red Landing in the morning and saw 35 buses full of people there, it turned out that these people had spent 12, 14 hours in these buses since the previous day. They are not fed, they have nowhere to go to the toilet, babies are running out of baby food, there was no hot water. And moreover, there were no representatives of the local authorities who could say “wait” or “let's go there”. Nobody could answer the question. They literally rushed at the journalists who came to shoot.

Nadezhda Yurova: Was it because there were not enough places for accommodation?

Elena Romanova: Yes, it was a mess, that same mess of the first hours of the evacuation, when the Rostov authorities simply hadn't got their bearings yet. As to why they left. Here again, this is my subjective opinion, because I did not talk to everyone, I talked to two dozen people. These two dozen people all said pretty much the same thing. “Yes, they shoot. Yes, you can hear the bombing in Donetsk here and there.” But people did not talk about something extraordinary, that this was a direct massive offensive, which was very scary for them. For 8 years, I understand that the feeling of fear has set in during this time, and people have already learned to distinguish these shells by sound - where, from where, what. But people told me “we went because they told us, they called from work - they demanded to start the evacuation as soon as possible.” That is, they were called by all the authorities, starting from the head directly, ending with the heads of enterprises. And many people were alarmed by these strange explosions, these sabotage in the center of Donetsk, although there were people who said “in 1914 we were bombed by planes, and a shell flew to our city center, this “Tochka-U”. But no one ran away. That is, there was no such influx.” My opinion, yes, people are not so much scared as uncertain. I was very touched by a conversation with one woman. I say “worse than in the 14th?”. She says “yes, it’s not worse, I didn’t leave in the 14th and look here.” And in the front seat she had a girl of 14-15 years old, disabled. And she says, “We didn’t leave. And so it happened. And now we were told to go, we went.” Because the person had a fear of a negative previous experience. Well, I repeat once again, I did not see any direct despair, fear and hysteria. At 14 it was worse.

Nadezhda Yurova: Do people believe in a possible war?

Elena Romanova: Regarding faith. You know, faith is a very subjective thing. Judging by the way they behave, that there is no such desperation, they are all going to return. They believe very little in the beginning of full-scale actions. But mostly it's confusion. People don't know what to believe. People don't know what to listen to. They listened to Pushilin and Pasechnik and arrived. Then they call through the Internet, call their relatives - what is there, how is it, and everything is the same there. As they shoot, so they shoot.

Nadezhda Yurova: Many people with whom our correspondent managed to talk said that the shelling has become stronger, and people are leaving the cities more en masse.

VOICES OF THE EVACUATES
More and more massive shelling began. After us, another column of buses was already leaving. Because it's unbearable to sit there. We sat out the 14th, 15th, but now it's gone.

Well, here in 1414, 300,000 people passed through the Rostov region, but we stayed in the basements, we didn’t leave. We did not leave, the only thing, when it was generally sad, was that I took the children with my mother.

What is happening there?

- Shooting. We just drove off, the shelling began again.

“Ukraine attacked our city. (child)

Large-caliber thrashing at peaceful people, at kindergartens, at schools. In short, anywhere - and flies there.

Stronger than the 14th year?

Stronger.

Are there casualties, destruction?

There is destruction, there are casualties, yes.

Elena Romanova: The city is working, cars are moving, people are walking the streets. And they are sitting somewhere near Rostov in incomprehensible conditions with incomprehensible prospects.

Nadezhda Yurova: And those who remained, do they have the opportunity to voluntarily just pick up and stay? Or all these, as they said, 700 people must be evacuated for sure.

Elena Romanova: Well, yes, 700 thousand people, but I have acquaintances and almost all residents of the Rostov region have either their relatives or acquaintances of acquaintances who were there. And so we can verify this information. A lot of people refuse to leave. Literally today I was talking with colleagues, relatives are in Donetsk, but she cannot leave because she has two dogs and one cat. They were told to issue a permit for the export of these dogs and cats. To take permission is now you need to go, pay money to the veterinarian, then another for permission. Although on Friday I saw people traveling with dogs and cats, maybe they already had prepared documents - all vaccinations, certificates. But people refuse. “Wherever I go, I have dogs, cats, goats, chickens, and so on.” That is, this is an evacuation, but it is not mandatory and not forced, it is rather voluntary.

Nadezhda Yurova: How do the residents of the Rostov region and other regions, to which people are also evacuated, react to this? Still, you live your quiet life, and then bam, and an influx of people from another area. How is it tolerated by the residents of Rostov and other regions?

Elena Romanova: Well, the Rostov region, it's front-line, it's already used to it. In the 14th year, according to various estimates, about 40 thousand inhabitants of Ukraine settled in the region. That is, they settled, they assimilated. They received a residence permit, then, according to a simplified scheme, they received citizenship. In almost every area that you now come across, there is “there is a person from Donetsk”, “and I have a person from Gorlovka”. That is, a lot of people have assimilated, settled down, and in principle they are already Russians. They already feel like Russians. But the connection remains, so the Rostovites both lived and continue to live with the problems of that region. It must be understood that in 1914 this influx of refugees could not but affect the economy. The prices for the cost of work, that is, the cost of labor, have fallen very sharply. In construction, in almost all areas, that is, a large number of people have appeared who are ready to work practically for food. And of course, this caused some irritation, because the person had the same prices for his services, and he understands that these Donetsk ones come and knock down these prices. Yes, it was. But I must say that the Rostov region has not become better for the last 8 years. And the cost of labor is falling not only in Rostov, it is falling all over Russia. Therefore, now, by the way, many Russians, residents of the Rostov region are forced to work practically for food. If we take the very Russian Donbass, the former mining territories, there are terrible, completely depressing territories there. A salary of 15 thousand is considered normal. Moreover, there are such utility payments for 7 to 8 thousand for a communal apartment, because old, destroyed communications - there are a lot of problems there. Therefore, more or less of these people in the labor market will not have the same effect. It will tell on what. Children will need to be sent to schools. That is, there will be a certain tension in the school. Then the women and children were evacuated. They will need some kind of medical help sooner or later. Medical institutions of the Rostov region are already working with their last strength, because covid. Because the optimization of health care - we have closed a huge number of all kinds of district hospitals. These routings have been developed. That is, now you just have to sit in clinics longer, wait for the right specialist - longer. And it is clear that this cannot please.

Nadezhda Yurova: Since we are talking about medicine, they say that almost everyone who passes through the border is given a PCR test and there is not a single positive one. How reliable is this information?

Elena Romanova: You must understand that journalists are not allowed to enter the border crossings now. That is, journalists of federal channels can work there, but in order for journalists from independent publications to get in ... We then just slipped through on the night of February 18-19, because there was a general hype, and no one particularly drove us there, and the journalists worked, filmed and other. Now, for example, on Saturday, it was impossible to shoot in tent camps, because border guards came. In order for a journalist to be able to shoot on the territory of 5 kilometers adjacent to the border, this requires permission from the Center for Public Relations of the FSB. Not all of them are far away, therefore, it is difficult for journalists to understand what is happening there. Only if these federal colleagues are allowed in, and what they show, then you have to believe. And I, when I was standing at the border, of course, no one did any PCR tests for them, they walked and walked ... And they had to be transplanted as soon as possible, and so on. In campgrounds, they may already be doing it. In the Rostov region, the official authorities say that they will test everything and that there are no positive ones there yet, but let's put it this way: it is very hard to believe in it.

Nadezhda Yurova: I agree. The last question, how long do you think this will continue?

Elena Romanova: How can one talk about this if one or two people can know about it, and those in Moscow. Now a message has come that a Ukrainian shell has flown into a border crossing on Russian territory, it has been completely destroyed. This is the third projectile that flies into the territory of Russia. In 2014, we also had shells flying. We even lost a man from it. But now these shells have a completely different value and importance, and a completely different cost. All this can turn into a “Casus Belli” at any moment, and, you understand, that all this can end in a full-fledged invasion. And if there is a full-fledged invasion, then it would be wiser for these people to stay here in Russia. This will be a serious headache not only for the Rostov region, because they are now being transported to Astrakhan, Volgograd, Voronezh ... You see, they were not taken to the Krasnodar Territory, because Rospotrebnadzor said that they would disrupt the tourist season there. This is true fortune-telling on the coffee grounds. I would very much like nothing to happen and they would return home as soon as possible.

Nadezhda Yurova: This is how people talk about how they hurriedly gathered to the sound of cannonade to leave their hometown:

VOICES OF THE EVACUATES
In position, with a small child…

What did you take with you? Which things?

They grabbed on the go what they saw: panties, T-shirts, change of clothes for their son. I don't know if I put something for myself... because the sounds of cannonade, the child lies in the kitchen and shouts “air!” to me. What do you think, is it possible to take something ...

And when a child screams "air" what does it mean?

Air Raid

Are you hiding somewhere?

On the floor, usually from fear. Well, if the fragments fly from shells. We don’t have it yet, but they say it’s worse there ...

We took things, as they say, as far as the bags allowed us. But, of course, we still have housing there. We are from this city. It’s a pity to leave, because for all the past years, something has been acquired and now it’s very difficult to leave just with personal belongings ...

Where they shoot, who shoots, how they shoot

Let's discuss it with the military observer of "Novaya" Valery Shiryaev.

Nadezhda Yurova: What is the current situation at the border in general? And what kind of blows do the “DNR” and “LNR” receive?

Valery Shiryaev: The total number of attacks from both sides does not exceed some peak values ​​that were recorded in past years. That is, this is one of the outbursts, and it probably differs in that, firstly: it was announced that several shells fell on the territory of the Russian Federation from the side of Ukraine, but since the places where the shells fell are in the border zones where journalists are not allowed, check completely, as expected , or record this information - it is not possible for journalists. Well, those photos provided by the FSB and official propaganda are photos of craters exploding on our territory by Ukrainian shells. Well... we just have to trust them somehow. That's how it works.

Nadezhda Yurova: What does the Ukrainian side say about this?

Valery Shiryaev: Requires investigation. Such a conscientious, international investigation. I believe that this is one of the episodes of this war of nerves, a war of two propaganda machines on both sides, which should mean something ... In fact, I don’t really believe that Ukrainian troops really fired at Russian territory. Now, due to the supposedly such a huge number of shelling, a fictitious campaign has been organized to evacuate the population. That is, the authorities create the impression that the population of the “DNR” and “LNR” is in great danger. Their lives, their health, and all of them are called up, and almost forcibly taken to the territory of the Russian Federation, they are placed here. Well, in order to compensate them for these sufferings and inconveniences, they give out 10 thousand rubles each. In fact, even during the worst times of military activity, no such evacuations were carried out on the border of the “DPR” and “LPR”. The real flow of refugees from there was during the armed struggle in 2014-15. But then, civilians really died, in large numbers, houses and infrastructure were destroyed, and all this was recorded by a huge number of photographs, and the losses among the civilian population of the “DPR” and “LPR” were very large. And, of course, then it really was a justified phenomenon, understandable, humanly and statistically. Now this is an absolutely unmotivated phenomenon, from the point of view of an objective, independent observer. This is definitely a completely simple propaganda ploy that is designed to show that Ukraine is preparing for an offensive. And, whether this is intended to justify future offensives that are being prepared from the territory of the “DPR” and “LPR” or some kind of provocation.

As for the shelling itself from both sides: of course, the Ukrainian army cannot but respond, and this is generally the norm in those parts. If the “DPR” and “LPR” military provoke the other side for too long, then it will certainly respond. And she answers: that is, the flights of shells on their territory (“DNR and LNR”) are real and this is not a blatant lie. But this is what the calculation is based on, that in the future, when the situation worsens, when it will be necessary to figure out who brought it to this, it will be quite difficult to establish the original culprit. This is precisely the competent calculation of those who are preparing such operations. From the point of view of the general military situation, it is quite clear that, apparently, all movements along the borders, all these threatening maneuvers that replace each other, do not achieve their goal, apparently, in negotiations with the United States and NATO, on a new security configuration in Europe, their goals in the way that Putin and his entourage need. That is, additional pressure is needed. What is it showing up now? Firstly, yesterday it was announced that all Russian troops that will come from the Far East, from Siberia to the exercises in Belarus, remain for some incomprehensible, second stage of the exercises. It is quite obvious that this second stage is not motivated in any way, it is not needed there, and this is no longer an exercise. This is just the presence of troops on the territory of Belarus: there are no exercises for more than two weeks. If in two weeks they again extend the stay of Russian troops as part of a joint grouping on the territory of Belarus, this means that it is necessary to justify the long-term presence of Russian troops on the territory of Belarus. Well, for example, within the framework of the CSTO agreement, Belarus should officially appeal to Russia with a request to leave the troops, due to the fact that she is afraid of something. You see, well, how Kazakhstan turned to Russia. This is the last really possible extension of the presence of Russian troops in Belarus, which is only possible, under the flag of the same exercises that suddenly unexpectedly lasted. But this will not happen again, Lukashenka's official requests for this will still be required.

The second is, of course, the aggravation in the Donbass, and the creation of the appearance that some kind of serious military operation is being prepared there. And the military on both sides are very tense, because, of course, no one wants to take part in such an operation. All this, of course, puts pressure on those people who, on the part of NATO and the United States, are sitting at these negotiations. We see extremely high negotiation activity, they constantly call each other up. These calls went up to dozens, not counting the communication at the very top. Putin should now meet with Biden, he is constantly talking to Macron, who is trying to play the role of an intermediary. These are negotiations on a military-political configuration in Europe. This is roughly how the situation is. That is, people who were expelled from the Donbass to Russia - these people suffer in order to achieve such political goals of Russia. And a lot of things come from that side too. It is necessary to pay attention to yesterday's message for all US citizens who are in Russia on the website of the US Embassy, ​​which clearly states that, according to media reports, in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other cities of Russia, as well as along the borders with Ukraine, terrorist attacks: explosions in the subway, explosions at railway stations... And for Muscovites this is not an empty warning, because we often had explosions in the subway. And many, for example, my neighbors, said that we had to go to hell from here: to the village, to the dacha, you understand? That is, this virtual war was transferred to our territory. This is a kind of answer: “Oh, you decided to punish real people in the Donbass, so that they would answer with their destinies and participate in your military plans? Well, well, we'll see how Muscovites will respond to the fact that we warn them about terrorist attacks. In fact, the first line “based on media reports” is very confusing. What data, about what? Yesterday I sat for half the night and tried to “google” some Western articles about the fact that explosions and terrorist acts are being prepared in our country - not a single article. You see, this is pure propaganda, framed as an official statement from the embassy.

* Human rights activist Lev Ponomarev is included in the register of foreign agents in Russia.